516
FXUS64 KOHX 311725
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

- Heat remains a concern through this afternoon with triple digit
  heat indices. Cooler temperatures arrive tonight and persist
  through this weekend.

- Most of Middle TN will see drier weather Friday and Saturday,
  with low rain chances remaining for areas along the Plateau.
  Higher rain chances (30-70%) return Sunday.

- Severe thunderstorm threat is very low, but stronger storms will
  be capable of heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Regional water vapor imagery and RAP mesoanalysis show a broad
upper-level trough in place from the Upper Midwest through the
Northeast, and the base of the trough now working through the Ohio
Valley. This coincides with a surface cold front now progressing
southeast through Kentucky where a few thunderstorms are now
ongoing with aid of increased moisture and instability near the
front itself. The presence of the upper-level trough is good news
as this will provide an end to our recent days of excessive heat.
All things considered, we`ll watch for showers & thunderstorms
along/near the front throughout the day as well as along the
Plateau where there`s increased moisture near orographic lift.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values near
105 this afternoon, assuming rain doesn`t cool things off.

The progress of the cold front will become more apparent by
tomorrow morning as dewpoints decline into the 60s for areas
along/north of I-40. Morning lows should be a few degrees lower
in addition to lower humidity values during the afternoon. Rain
chances tomorrow should favor areas south, and along the Plateau,
where residual moisture and lift could gets a few showers or a
thunderstorm going during peak heating. Otherwise, temperatures
in the low to mid 80s are forecast with a northerly breeze and
variable cloudiness. We`ll certainly take the below normal
temperatures for a while.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

It appears overall conditions should hold steady for Saturday with
effects of the upper-level trough remaining in the area and a more
stable post-frontal air mass. However, it looks like rain chances
will be on the increase for Sunday. Medium-range guidance is
depicting a shortwave disturbance approaching from the northwest
which is modeled to develop an inverted surface trough across the
area. This feature should contain an axis of higher
moisture/instability to foster scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Best chances remain east of I-65 at this time.

A subsequent upper-level trough with embedded disturbances is
depicted in medium-range guidance into mid next week. This will
dictate a continued period of moderated temperatures as well as
medium chances (40-50%) of rain/storms for Monday and Tuesday. It
appears a slow progression of the pattern will occur on Wednesday
with the departure of the upper-level trough. This would favor a
decreasing trend in rain chances with an accompanying increase in
temperatures (back toward normal values in this case).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

The current radar shows some storms to the east of the Cumberland
Plateau moving east along with some storms near the Kentucky
boarder. Highest confidence in storm impacts is at CSV where a TEMPO
group was included through 21Z. Confidence is lower at BNA, MQY, and
SRB where PROB30 groups remain. Confidence in timing is particularly
low due to scattered storms persisting along the front after 00Z.
Amendments are likely as storms continue to develop. Lower ceilings
resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions moves between 03Z and 06Z with
improvements towards the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  86  67  88 /  20  20   0  10
Clarksville    71  84  64  85 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     68  81  63  80 /  20  40  10  40
Columbia       73  86  66  87 /  20  20   0  10
Cookeville     70  81  64  82 /  20  20  10  20
Jamestown      68  79  62  81 /  30  30  10  30
Lawrenceburg   72  85  66  86 /  20  30  10  20
Murfreesboro   73  86  65  87 /  20  20  10  20
Waverly        70  83  63  85 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Clements/LC