138
FXUS64 KOHX 071445
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
945 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 922 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

- High rain chances through tonight. A brief strong storm with
  gusty winds and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out this
  afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures late this week with afternoon highs in the
  70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

- Outlook for next week shows return to warmer than normal and dry
  pattern that has dominated our wx so far this fall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

At mid morning, numerous light showers covered Middle TN with
surface low pressure spinning over western KY. Between the
showers, there will be some brief breaks in the rain late this
morning and early afternoon. As the low pressure moves to eastern
KY this afternoon, a band or multiple bands of showers will move
across the area along a trailing trough axis. During this time,
there will be enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder and
locally heavier downpours.

So far, rainfall amounts have ranged from mostly less than one
quarter inch southeast to around one half inch in Metro, to a
little more than 1 inch near Land Between the Lakes. Additional
rainfall through this evening will be mostly a quarter to half
inch, but some spots may receive another 1"+ under the heavier
showers. Thanks to recent dryness, we do not expect any flooding
other than perhaps a brief moment of street flooding here and
there when heavy downpours occur. We are not in a severe outlook,
but models continue to show a narrow axis of SB capes over 1000
this afternoon, so a couple of "strong" cells with gusty winds
cannot be ruled out. Outside of storms, winds will be somewhat
gusty to 25 or 30 mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Light to moderate showers are ongoing this evening with a larger
cluster of showers slowly moving in from west Tennessee in
association with the remnant gulf low currently over Mississippi. As
this low moves north, it will eventually collide with the
incoming cold front, pushing a plume of higher moisture across
northwest Middle TN with PWATs near 2". Measured PWAT values on
tonight`s 00Z sounding show us sitting at 1.80" which is .01 away
from the daily max. Showers will continue through the overnight
hours, increasing in coverage and intensity as greater moisture
builds into the area. Very low chance for thunder overnight with
such saturated profiles and low instability. Moving into tomorrow,
overcast and showery conditions will persist. Our greatest
weather hazard will be flash flooding, and the overall threat at
this time remains low with a lack of instability and the ongoing
drought. However, CAMs tonight are hinting at the possibility of a
small window of enhanced CAPE near 1000 J/kg just ahead of the
front, and if that is realized, that will drive the flash flooding
risk up with higher rainfall rates. That risk is largely confined
to the northwest area of the CWA, and appears unlikely at this
time with overcast conditions expected. 1" to 3" is likely in
total by tomorrow night with the highest totals falling across the
northwest portion of the CWA. The HREF gives the Clarksville area
a 60% chance of surpassing 2" and only a 20% of surpassing 3".

For convective coverage, 00Z CAMs are initializing a narrow band of
thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Just as mentioned above, if there are any instances of
clearing tomorrow, it will ramp up instability, and with bulk
shear values around 30 kts, we could see a strong storm or two.
Severe weather chances overall are low, though. The front will
clear the area early Wednesday, ushering in a drier and cooler
airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Aside from the last bit of showers with the exiting front Wednesday,
the long term forecast brings all too familiar conditions back to
Middle TN.....dry and warm, though temperatures will be much
closer to seasonal norms. Temperatures will gradually warm each
day this week with 80s making a comeback by next weekend. Flow
aloft will shift northwesterly and with a large ridge building
across the central US, a series of upper level disturbances will
stream in. Moisture is lacking at this time, so we`ll see some
increase in cloud cover, but rain chances at this time each day
are less than 10%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A bit of a messy aviation forecast for Middle TN airfields today
due to a nearby low pressure system tracking to our north. Periods
of SHRA are expected to persist for much of the day as well as
MVFR cigs at BNA, MQY, and CKV this morning through the
afternoon. Southerly winds are forecast at 8-12 kts with higher
gusts through the afternoon. A front will move through Middle TN
in the 00-06z timeframe. This will provide a NW wind shift as well
as IFR cigs after ~06z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      80  63  76  52 / 100  40   0   0
Clarksville    79  60  75  47 / 100  30   0   0
Crossville     74  61  70  47 /  90  80  10   0
Columbia       81  63  74  51 /  90  50   0   0
Cookeville     76  63  71  49 / 100  90  10   0
Jamestown      74  61  68  47 / 100  90  10   0
Lawrenceburg   80  63  73  50 / 100  60   0   0
Murfreesboro   81  64  74  51 / 100  60   0   0
Waverly        78  60  73  49 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Sizemore