985
FXUS64 KOHX 060523
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1223 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Low risk for severe storms Friday afternoon into the early
  evening hours. Main concerns are damaging wind gusts and heavy
  rain potentially leading to localized flooding.

- Low risk for severe storms Saturday, however confidence is low
  in exact coverage and timing.

- While Sunday could be dry for most of Middle TN, unsettled
  weather continues into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

It`s been pretty quiet across Middle TN this evening as very obvious
subsidence has kept any storms from developing. We`ve had a couple
of showers develop west of I-65, but the mid-state has been in a
subsidence zone between the wave on the Atlantic seaboard and a weak
upper trough to our west. This should continue through most of the
night and the most we are likely to get tonight is some patchy fog.
However, this likely won`t be the case for tomorrow. As temperatures
climb into the 80s again tomorrow afternoon and a southerly push of
moisture increases dew points into the low 70s (it`s gonna be sticky
out there), CAPE values will jump up near 2500 J/Kg (or better).
With instability in place, we need a lifting mechanism and that
might come in the form of a remnant MCS from OK/AR that is
expected to move towards Middle TN later tonight and tomorrow
morning. By the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area, however timing is a bit suspect right
now. CAMs are a bit diverse in solution regarding storm timing,
but I think from mid-afternoon into the early evening, we`re
going to be monitoring the radar closely. Biggest concerns still
looks like wind and heavy rain. Lapse rates are in the mid 6s and
with about 35 kts of shear, but very little helicity, damaging
winds will be the primary threat tomorrow. Additionally, with PWs
expected to be in the 90th percentile and storm motions about 15
kts, we could be looking at some real gushers. Localized flooding
can`t be ruled out because of this.

If you have outdoor plans tomorrow, be sure you are watching the
weather. Make sure you are aware of the location of shelters in
the event your location goes under a severe thunderstorm warning.

As zonal flow aloft continues into the day on Saturday and yet
another MCS pushes out of OK/AR in our direction Saturday morning, a
very similar situation could present itself in the afternoon.
Confidence in this occurring is lower, however. This is due to
recent CAM runs that suggest a more southeasterly track of storms,
potentially pushing from the Memphis region and into northern
Alabama. Very mesoscale details will make that decision on
trajectory and hopefully we can get a clearer picture on rain
chances by tomorrow evening for Saturday`s storm chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

If you have outdoor plans this weekend and you`re looking for a dry
day, Sunday could be your day. Many models are suggesting dry skies
with warm temperatures and dew points relaxing back into the 60s
under northwest flow.

Extended guidance is a bit diverse next week. GFS is suggesting an
active pattern with Euro showing at least the middle of the week
being dry after storms roll through here on Monday (both are
actually showing this). Of course, rain chances will help dictate
afternoon highs, but the 6-10 day outlook does keep us near normal
through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected for most of this TAF cycle, but
scattered storms will enter the picture Friday afternoon and
likely last into the early evening hours. With some uncertainty
regarding timing, have covered with PROB30s for the time being,
but they may need to be adjusted with the 12Z issuance. Any storms
that directly affect a terminal will cause brief IFR to LIFR
conditions. Winds will be light (10 kts or less) and mainly
southwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  72  83  71 /  80  60  70  70
Clarksville    85  70  82  69 /  80  60  70  60
Crossville     82  65  79  65 /  80  70  80  90
Columbia       89  70  83  69 /  80  50  70  80
Cookeville     84  67  80  66 /  80  70  80  80
Jamestown      82  65  79  65 /  80  70  80  80
Lawrenceburg   87  69  83  68 /  70  50  80  80
Murfreesboro   89  70  84  69 /  80  60  80  80
Waverly        85  68  81  67 /  70  60  70  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Unger