166
FXUS63 KOAX 312314
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures in the 90s with heat index values of 100+.
  Overnight temperatures in the 70s offer limited relief.

- Nightly shower and thunderstorm chances across portions of
  the area. There is a low chance of severe weather, especially
  on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

I wish there was good news to discuss in the forecast, but this
is not the case. A stagnant weather pattern will fully settle in
over the region, locking in similar weather for each day. A
large upper-level high pressure has parked over the Gulf Coast.
The central Plains and Midwest resides on the northern periphery
of this feature. As a result, hot temperatures and periodic
showers and thunderstorms are to be expected each day. The most
likely timing for any showers and thunderstorms will be
overnight with the aid of the low-level jet and warm advection.
Otherwise, daytime heat keeps a cap in place and thunderstorms
at bay.

Earlier morning showers and thunderstorms have lifted out of
the area, leaving behind a sunny, but humid, afternoon.
Temperatures should climb well into the 90s with heat index
values approaching 100. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is anticipated tonight, especially over northeast
Nebraska. With humid conditions and clouds, temperatures
struggle to cool into the lower 70s. Any rain should dissipate
or exit the region during the late morning hours on Tuesday.
Tuesday will likely see temperatures a touch higher than today,
but dewpoint temperatures may decrease slightly. In the end,
heat index values near 100 are likely once again. Heading into
Tuesday night, the next round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected. This round may have a slightly better environment to
work with, so a low chance of damaging winds and large hail
accompanies any stronger thunderstorms. Temperatures struggle to
cool with continued rain and clouds with Wednesday morning
temperatures in the 70s and a bit warmer than the previous
morning.

Wednesday and beyond is much of the same as the previous days,
but the heat may increase further. With the prolonged nature of
the heat, heat products may need to be considered. While the
current forecast does trend temperatures down slightly to close
out the week, long-range ensemble guidance is indicating that
the worst of the heat may linger into the weekend. In this case,
a prolonged heatwave would likely require heat products,
especially as overnight temperatures offer limited relief.
Outside of the heat, at least a low chance of overnight showers
and thunderstorms continues to be the norm.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Widely scattered showers and a few storms are observed near the
KOMA terminal this evening. Expect these showers to largely
decrease in coverage within the next hour or two leaving behind
scattered to broken ceilings of 10,000 to 14,000 feet. The bulk
of the activity is expected to remain away from the terminal at
this time. Thereafter, will see VFR conditions prevail for the
duration of the period. Winds remain under 10 kts and variable
at times overnight before becoming southeasterly Tuesday
morning. Latest model guidance suggests potential for storms
that could affect terminals after 06z and 15z, particularly at
KOFK and KOMA (20-30% chance). Confidence remains well below 50%
for inclusion in TAF at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Castillo