442
FXUS63 KOAX 060530
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1230 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off showers and isolated storms will continue into
  Saturday, with the highest chances being Saturday morning
  (50-70%). Rainfall amounts around 0.10" to 0.25".

- High temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s through early
  next week. Warming into the mid to upper 80s by the middle to
  later parts of the week.

- Higher potential for storms by the end of next week, but still
  lots of details to work out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

We`re seeing scattered sprinkles/light showers this morning,
especially along the I-80 corridor as seen on radar. Dry air in
the low levels is making it difficult for anything significant
to make it to the ground.

The upper-level pattern shows a negatively-tilted trough over
the Inter-Mountain West this morning with relatively zonal flow
across the Central Plains. Subtle shortwaves are ejecting across
our region bringing scattered light showers overnight tonight
which will continue through Friday. Cloud cover and weak low-
level flow will not lead to much in the way of instability,
meaning we could see a couple rumbles of thunder but for the
most part showers should remain weak.

Saturday morning we see the negatively-tilted trough move across
our region, bringing a more substantial chance for showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms, but again, limited instability
should keep anything from becoming severe. This will just be our
best chance for more widespread showers with embedded thunder.

Temperatures through the weekend will remain relatively mild
with highs in the 70s today and getting up to around 80 Saturday
afternoon once the rain clears. The rest of the weekend, we`ll
see a transition to dry, northwesterly flow behind the front on
Saturday. This will keep temperatures mild into early next week,
with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s, low humidity, and a
few scattered afternoon clouds. Models show a few weak
shortwaves along the periphery of the upper-level trough to our
east bringing light chances for showers, but with very limited
low- level moisture, the ensembles keep us dry.

Going into midweek next week, we see a strong ridge set up over
the Rockies and shift eastward over the Central Plains by
Wednesday. This will bring high temperatures on Wednesday well
into the mid-to-upper 80s, possibly 90. Expect this warmer
weather to linger into Thursday as we see increasing warm-air
advection ahead of an approaching trough toward the end of the
week. After a mostly dry week, rain/storm chances return
Thursdyay-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions with spotty MVFR conditions are expected tonight.
Spotty, light rain showers will continue through much of the
forecast period. Confidence in rain showers in any specific
period is low (20% chance) with amendments being made as
needed. Brief areas of MVFR conditions will be possible in any
heavier showers. Patchy fog/haze overnight could also bring
brief MVFR conditions. Later tonight, a deck of MVFR ceilings is
expected to set up over central Nebraska, likely impacting KOFK
and KLNK during the early morning period before improving after
sunrise. Winds will remain calm and variable overnight before
shifting to northeasterly later in the morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood