560
FXUS63 KOAX 131027
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
527 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thursday will bring the potential for more fire weather
  concerns as gusty winds and low RH values will be in place
  over portions of the area. A Fire Weather Watch is in place
  from 9 AM to 7 PM.

- Low chances (20-40%) for showers and storms on Thursday with
  better chances for rain holding off until Saturday night
  through Monday.

- Potential is increasing for periodic strong-to-severe storms
  Saturday through early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Tonight and Wednesday:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a compact shortwave
moving through the depressed flow over the eastern third of the
CONUS, while northwesterly flow continues over the central third. To
the west, a negatively-tilted mid/upper ridge is being impinged
upon by an incoming cutoff low off of the Pacific Northwest
coastal region. High pressure is building into the forecast area
from the northwest, filling in behind the frontal passage from
earlier today and its associated clouds/sprinkles that it was
able to muster. This high pressure will work with the clear
skies to help low temperatures fall into the mid 40s to just
above 50 degrees, with many places seeing calm winds at times.

Wednesday will follow in the same dry foot steps as today, but with
winds on the lighter end at 5-10 mph. Highs similar to this
afternoon (upper 70s to mid 80s) will feel a bit hotter without any
cooling wind, but that will thankfully take the edge off of any fire
danger, capping it at "very high". Humidity values bottom out
between 16-22%, hitting their lowest point at 5 PM. Winds that
start out of the northwest will eventually give way to
southerlies that begin ramping up overnight into the early
morning hours of Thursday.

Thursday and Beyond:

Forecast impacts ramp up Thursday, marked by the arrival of a potent
mid/upper shortwave to the Saskatchewan and Manitoba that will help
develop a strong mass response in the low levels. Southerly winds at
850 mb are expected to reach 50 kts across portions of far northeast
Nebraska, peaking during the mid-to-late morning hours only to very
slowly diminish over the course of the day, while RH values drop
below 40% as early as 9 AM. Recent collaboration with fire and fuels
experts across northeast Nebraska has been focused on the abundance
of dry grass that still lingers in those areas. With RH values
forecast to bottom out in the 23-32% range, those strong winds that
gust to 40-45+ mph will be plenty to overcome any of the shorter
greenup and allow for rapid fire spread if something ignites. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect from 9 AM Thursday through 7 PM to
encompass the most critical conditions.

Also of note, incoming height falls, warm air advection in the lower
levels, and mass convergence are working to give a 200-300 mb layer
of lift that will help develop some scattered elevated convection
chances Thursday morning into the afternoon. Those chances will
generally be concentrated along a couple of ribbons of increased RH
at ~700 mb, keeping down the overall chances for one particular
location. During the late afternoon and evening hours, very high
based convection is hinted at in several of the CAM solutions, very
dry layers below any base signaling a low-end wind threat
during the late afternoon/evening hours. Those signals are
strongest across south-central Nebraska into Kansas, but is hard
to ignore the chances of a storm to put out a gust as it dies
heading into our area.

We`re still on track for summer-like heat Friday heading into the
weekend, where highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are increasing in
likelihood. Persistent southerly flow and continued focus of the jet
stream to the north of the area will help usher in those abnormal
conditions, with the other aspect to watch besides the heat being
increasing storm chances. Dewpoints in the 60s and decent to
favorable lapse rates aloft align for the weekend, with both
the SPC and machine learning outlooks highlighting at least
portions of the area both Saturday and Sunday, with the better
chances Sunday lingering into Monday as a digging trough helps
trigger lee cyclogenesis that ejects the surface system to the
northeast. We`ll be rooting for all the rain that we can get
given our dry conditions/areas of drought, and most if not all
of the area is under the gun for 0.25" or more with heading into
next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light
winds continue this morning as surface high pressure moves
overhead. Winds will gradually shift to the southeast later this
afternoon and evening as high pressure exits the area to the
east.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak