357
FXUS66 KMTR 060530
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1030 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temps going through the end of
the week with a warming trend on tap for the weekend. Temps inland
about 3-7 degrees above normal with near normal temps for the
coast by the end of the weekend and early next week. A cooling
trend appears likely by the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Not much in the way to update tonight as the forecast remains on
track. Expect the pattern of overnight and morning clouds with
clearing and breezy afternoons to continue into the late week with
a slight warming trend this weekend.

-Murdock

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 125 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Deja vu today with a decently deep marine layer (~2000 feet via Fort
Ord profiler) and slightly below seasonal temps. A weak surface low
off the coast has promoted southerly flow along the coastline, which
has sort of reversed the norm and brought marine stratus into Santa
Cruz while clearing out of Monterey. This trend will generally
continue into the weekend before the current flow pattern finally
degrades and less impactful surface flow in restored.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 125 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A few degrees warmer by the weekend and early next week as a
stout, longwave ridge builds over the western US. However, as the
ridge builds, a jet embedded in the flow causes the formation of a
cut off low that will meander over the waters along the West
Coast. While far inland areas heat up, this cutoff low will act to
reinforce the marine layer and moderate temperatures through the
weekend. So, while inland areas heat up this weekend, coastal
areas may actually not see much noticeable change in high
temperatures. By the end of the weekend and early next week,
inland areas will likely be 3 to 7 degrees above normal, while
coastal areas will stay around seasonal normals. By the middle of
next week, a cooling trend looks to develop with reasonable
confidence among ensemble guidance as a deeper trough pattern digs
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Widespread MVFR-IFR conditions are expected overnight. Low
confidence but high resolution guidance does continue to indicate a
chance for LIFR CIGs to develop overnight. CIGs will initially start
out MVFR before lowering and becoming IFR overnight. Not currently
anticipating widespread fog/LIFR conditions but patchy reductions in
visibility may be possible directly along the coastline. Stratus
will return early tomorrow evening with CIGs expected to reach HAF,
MRY, and SNS at the end of this TAF period. Confidence is low to
moderate for HAF with guidance showing a slight chance of MVFR CIGs
continuing through the entire TAF period. For now, leaning towards
HAF clearing by late tomorrow morning but stratus looks to return by
the early evening hours. Light, variable at times, winds are
expected overnight before moderate onshore winds return during the
day tomorrow.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus has started to fill in through the Golden
Gate Bridge and is expected to fill in over the SF Bay by early
tomorrow morning. Current thinking is that stratus will not reach
SFO until around 10Z but patchy/temporary stratus may impact the
airport prior to that. CIGs look to clear by mid to late morning
with VFR conditions through the remainder of the day. Guidance
indicates stratus may return towards the end of the TAF period with
confidence increasing after 09Z. Winds continue to ease overnight
with moderate onshore winds to return during the day tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR conditions are expected overnight
with CIGs gradually lowering from MVFR to IFR during the early
morning hours. CIGs start to rise mid tomorrow morning with clearing
expected by mid to late morning. Light, variable winds are expected
overnight with moderate onshore flow returning during the day.
Stratus is expected to return tomorrow evening with confidence
increasing after 03Z.
&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1029 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Winds have eased over the coastal waters with the exception of the
northern outer coastal waters where a SCA remains in effect
through  early Friday morning for locally fresh to strong gusts.
Diurnally  breezy winds are expected to develop again over the San
Pablo Bay  tomorrow afternoon with fresh to strong gusts expected.
Otherwise,  conditions will remain mostly favorable over the
coastal waters  through early next week when winds start to build
and a long period  northwesterly swell arrives.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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