626
FXUS66 KMTR 031159
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
359 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

 - Strong winds expected along the coast and across higher
   terrain Wednesday through Friday

 - Offshore winds will bring warmer weather this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 121 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
(Today and tonight)

With the lunar eclipse underway there is a lot of focus on the
cloud cover this morning. The situation is pretty complex.
Boundary layer averaged winds are actually from the NE, but
surface winds are still onshore for most locations. The SFO-SAC
gradient is +0.9 mb (onshore), but the SFO-WMC gradient is -1.1
mb (offshore). The marine stratus deck is becoming more
organized, and it looks like a race against time for the remaining
clear skies to stay that way before totality. The best chance is
in the interior East Bay and Monterey County, but even those
aren`t guaranteed as the stratus closes in over the next hour.

A short wave ridge will dominate the pattern today. This will
bring afternoon temperatures 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. On
the other hand, the ridge and warmer air will help support a
thermal trough near the coast. This will bring an enhanced sea
breeze that will be noticeable for coastal communities. After the
clouds burn off late morning it will be a warm, clear, and breezy
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 121 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)

Another trough moves through on Wednesday, dragging a cold front
across the surface. Overcast skies will be a clear sign of the
front passing through the afternoon and evening. The rain chances
and amounts were already low, but have decreased thanks to the
dry air mass. The real story with this front is wind. Very strong
high pressure will build behind the front, reaching around 1035
mb in the Eastern Pacific. While high pressure is the norm in the
Eastern Pacific, 1035 mb is roughly 15 mb or 1.5 standard
deviations above normal for this time of year. The gradient
between this high pressure and the ~1007 mb low that supported the
cold front will support strong NW winds starting Wednesday and
continuing through Friday night. Gusts will very likely reach gale
force along the coast and across higher terrain. The wind
direction will gradually shift from NW onshore flow to northerly
or NE offshore flow as the 500 mb pattern evolves into an inside
slider by Saturday. The combination of high pressure and offshore
winds will bring a warming trend through the weekend, with most
areas easily reaching the 70s from Saturday through Monday. The
forecast uncertainty grows by the middle of next week. Most
ensemble solutions keep a general ridging pattern, but a few
outliers disagree and bring a more active pattern. The most likely
outcome is a very dry first half of March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 349 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

There is widespread stratus coverage this morning across all
terminals with dense fog across the North Bay. These clouds will
gradually mix out through the late morning with high confidence in
VFR conditions through the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR stratus is likely through the late morning
before mixing out around 18-20Z. All indications are that a strong
sea breeze will develop this afternoon with sustained winds
between 12 and 18 knots at the terminal. The return of stratus
Tuesday night is a little less certain, but the guidance has been
trending more towards an overnight return of MVFR ceilings.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...While offshore winds persisted overnight,
the marine stratus eventually won the battle against dry air
reached MRY. SNS is the only VFR terminal at the moment, but that
won`t last very long. Midday clearing will bring VFR conditions
before stratus returns overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

Expect hazardous marine weather conditions Wednesday through
Friday. A moderate NW breeze will increase to a strong NW breeze
on Wednesday and near gale force NNW breeze by Thursday. These
winds will build very rough seas of 12 to 15 feet across exposed
waters Thursday through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST
     Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST
     Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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