264
FXUS63 KMQT 060646
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
246 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are expected
  this afternoon, mainly western and central Upper Michigan.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms expected Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Elongated trough just upstream stretching southwestward across the
northern Plains is noted by the RAP and GOES Water Vapor Imagery.
Within this flow, weak isentropic ascent ahead of a weakly forced
cold front is resulting in spotty shower activity across Minnesota
and northwestern Wisconsin, which is extending into far western
Upper Michigan and parts of Lake Superior. However, dry air near the
surface is likely limiting much precip from reaching the ground in
Gogebic and Ontonagon counties where weak radar returns have been
observed. Widespread 50s and some upper 40s are noted by surface obs
under overcast skies.

Today, the aloft trough presses through the Upper Great lakes and
the weak front will exits east, followed by surface ridging. This
may support morning showers in the west and then more widespread
shower activity, possibly with some thunderstorms, across mostly the
western and central portions of Upper Michigan by mid-late
afternoon. A stray shower in the east can`t be ruled out given the
boundary`s eastward movement. Daytime highs look to peak in the 60s
for most, with some stray low 70s being possible across the east
half. Tonight, shower/storm activity diminishes with the setting
sun, followed by a mostly dry night with temperatures dipping into
the 40s. Surface high looks to persist over the region Saturday as
we warm into the 70s interior and 60s by the lakeshores. Mostly dry
conditions should persist on Saturday, although, by afternoon,
showers may lift into the west half late.

Finally, will note the lingering haze over the region. Elevated
smoke drifting south over Lake Superior today may result in some
hazy skies this afternoon after cloud cover ends in the west; at the
moment, near surface smoke isn`t expected to be high enough for
Michigan`s Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE)
to issue another Air Quality Alert/Advisory for elevated levels of
fine particulate (PM2.5).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Active weather returns Sunday into early next week. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance have a vigorous shortwave trough diving
through the Prairies provinces through Saturday, reaching the Upper
Midwest by early Sunday while an embedded midlevel low closes off. A
cold front sweeps through the Great Lakes Sunday with some shortwave
energy out ahead of this main feature, bringing our next batch of
widespread rain and thunderstorms. PWATs in excess of an inch,
deeply saturated soundings, and several hundred to 1000 j/kg of
MUCAPE (depending on your model/member of choice) indicate a
potential for some healthy amounts of precipitation - highest in any
thunderstorms. NBM has widespread rain totals of a quarter to half-
inch with the cold front, and around a 30-40% chance for totals in
excess of an inch (mainly across the central UP). After perhaps a
brief break in shower activity behind the front into early Monday
morning, additional rain chances develop early next week as the
stacked low meanders over the Great Lakes with associated wraparound
moisture behind the front as well as a cooler airmass. Ridging into
midweek will allow for a return to dry weather while a warming trend
kicks off.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Generally VFR conditions outside of any rain showers that move in
early this morning at KIWD/CMX. But, expect MVFR visibility
restrictions in any of the heavier rain showers.  Showers hold off
at KSAW until after daybreak. Light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Shifting winds continue to come in below 15kts the rest of today
through Friday. Then, a period of gustier winds is forecast this
weekend, with south/southwest winds gusting to around 20-25 kts late
Saturday into Sunday as a low pressure system approaches the Great
Lakes. Winds shift to the northwest behind the low pressure system
early next week, falling back below 20kts.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...JTP/LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC