829
FXUS63 KMPX 220527
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds and a few inches of fresh snow will result in
  Blizzard conditions and whiteout conditions in portions of
  southwest & south- central MN this afternoon/evening.

- Snow will taper off this evening from west to east. Total
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Gusty winds will lead to areas
  of blowing snow across portions of western & southern
  Minnesota.

- An Extreme Cold Warning will be issued for dangerously cold
  Wind Chills as low as 45 below zero Thursday evening through
  Friday morning.

- An Extreme Cold Watch continues for Friday afternoon through
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Current regional radar highlights a broad area of light snow over
eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Light snow
will continue through mid-afternoon before tapering off. Most
locations should expect an inch or two of new snow. Winds ramp up
this afternoon behind the snow. The signal for the strongest winds
remains to our southwest, but gusts up to 45 mph from the northwest
will lead to areas of blowing snow across western & southern
Minnesota. The worst impacts will occur in SW MN & south-central MN
this afternoon which has prompted an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning.
The combination of fluffy new snow & strong winds will support
whiteout conditions with near zero visibility across portions of
southwest & south-central MN. This includes much of the I-90
corridor in S MN. Significant travel impacts will be possible in the
Blizzard Warning. Locations further east have been included in a
Winter Weather Advisory expansion prompted by slightly higher snow
forecast due to higher SLRs. These locations in the Advisory can
expect occasional Blizzard conditions due to blowing snow, but most
of the time should have visibilities at or above a half mile.
Impacts will spin down quickly as the clipper dives southeast and
the winds decrease late this evening. Conditions should improve and
allow our Winter Weather Advisory will expire at 6 PM and the
Blizzard Warning Expires at 7 PM.

While some lingering patchy blowing snow remains possible - the
worst of it will be over by the end of this evening. Tonight
will see dry conditions with northwest winds ushering in what
will be the coldest air mass of the season so far. Our high
temperatures for Thursday will occur tonight at midnight or
shortly after. Speaking of Thursday, we`ll start off with
temperatures in the single digits above zero and by the end of
the work day we`ll likely see temperatures at or below -10F.
Wind chill temperatures will plummet as the cold builds in.
We`ll see Wind Chill temepratures -25F or colder across central
MN and -15 to - 25 by 4 PM. Temperatures & wind chills continue
to plummet Thursday evening through Friday morning. So how cold
will it get Friday morning? We`ll see temperatures bottom out in
the mid 10s to mid 20s below zero Friday morning. Wind chill
values at or below -40F. This will lead to an upgrade a portion
of the Extreme Cold Watch to an Extreme Cold Warning Thursday
evening through Friday late morning. This is dangerously cold
that could cause frostbite in a matter of minutes for exposed
skin. This should be the coldest air mass since January 2019`s
end of month cold snap. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect
for Friday afternoon to Saturday late morning given the
potential we lose wind thus losing wind chill temperatures.

High temperatures top out in the single digits and teens below zero
Friday before falling back into the 20s below zero Friday night &
Saturday morning. Winds should decrease as the high pressure moves
overhead Friday night, which would cause our apparent temperatures
to be equal to our air temperatures. It is still bitter cold, but it
should feel "less" cold than Friday morning. This is our reasoning
to why we kept the Extreme Cold Watch in effect for that period
given the uncertainty with winds... but it`s safe to expect at least
a Cold Weather Advisory for Friday PM through Saturday Noon-ish.
Saturday & Sunday remain cold, well below normal, but temperatures
will begin to moderate through the weekend. We`ll see temperatures
return to more typical Winter values for the first half of next week
with highs in the mid to upper teens above zero. Some models
indicate that this pattern could reload with another cold snap for
the end of the period & into next weekend. It`s worth noting that it
doesn`t look "warm" anytime soon as we end January and begin
February. Precipitation wise... it`s not too exciting. These Arctic
sfc highs produce very dry air & act to push the the storm track
(jet stream) further south across the CONUS. That means any snow we
observe over the next week likely comes in the form of a Clipper-
type system. The better signal for big snow storms appears to be in
the southern/eastern Great Lakes to the northeast... but there is
plenty of Winter left!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Ceilings have generally risen to VFR across all sites with a few
lingering MVFR observations expected to be intermittent
throughout the night as patchy cloud cover continues to move
across the area. With the MVFR intermittent clouds, there could
be a few snow showers alongside them, with the caveat that
accumulations would only amount to a dusting and duration would
be only as long as the clouds are present which should remain
less than an hour each time. Winds will continue to remain
blustery with gusts from 23-27ktsd across much of the area,
weakening later in the period as we lift to VFR and further
scatter out any lingering cloud cover.

KMSP...A few intermittent -SN showers are possible with sporadic
low level clouds moving through, however brief MVFR and a
dusting are the worst case impacts. We should remain dry and VFR
the majority of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR and cold. Wind NW 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE to W 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Cold Warning from 5 PM Thursday to 11 AM CST Friday
     for Benton-Douglas-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-
     Stearns-Stevens-Todd.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     morning for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-
     Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-
     Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-
     Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-
     Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-
     Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 11 AM CST Friday
     for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-
     Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac
     Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-
     Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Swift-
     Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Extreme Cold Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
     Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 11 AM CST Friday
     for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-
     Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...TDH