313
FXUS63 KMPX 311951
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
251 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Poor air quality from Canadian wildfire smoke continues into
  Saturday.

- Low chances for rain across western Minnesota early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

High pressure continues to sit over the Upper Midwest, & with
it comes little change on our forecast as smoke from Canadian
wildfires continues to linger over the area through at least
Saturday. An air quality alert remains in effect through
Saturday with AQI values in the Unhealthy (Red) & Unhealthy for
Sensitive Groups (Orange) categories are expected to persist
until the high moves out of the region. We may see a denser
concentration of smoke tomorrow morning as subsidence increases
with the center of the high pressure moving overhead and areas
of fog & mist overnight make for some murky skies around
sunrise. Otherwise pleasant & very comfortable temperatures
continue into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s,
overnight lows in the 50s, & very dry dew points for late
summer.

Deterministic & ensemble guidance are in agreement with brining
a few wake disturbances over the dakotas during beginning late
Sunday through the middle of next week. Trends have been to keep
the forcing from these disturbances west of the area, so not
really expecting much in the way of precipitation chances
except across far-western Minnesota. We may see a better chance
for more widespread precipitation develop towards the end of
the week when the jet stream along the US/Canada border
strengthens & develops a stronger wave, but in general we`re
looking at a pretty dry forecast for the next 7 days.
Temperatures will also gradually warm to more typical values &
become more humid entering late next week


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Smoke continues through the period with visibility expected to
remain MVFR around 4-5SM. Brief improvement is possible this
afternoon as mixing deepens & thins out the smoke near the
surface, while we could potentially see visibility drop to IFR
for a few hours early tomorrow morning when a thicker band of
smoke could move in & the air settles back down to the surface.
Winds will generally vary between northeasterly to southeasterly
through tomorrow morning with speeds around 5 kts or less.

KMSP...SOutheast winds around 10 kts to start the period should
drop closer to 5-7 kts & become more E/ENE this afternoon.
Expect MVFR visibility through the period, with a chance for
lower visibility around sunrise.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chance lingering MVFR FU. Wind S 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA