122
FXUS63 KMPX 230450
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1050 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight warm up is expected over the weekend before a more
  winter- like airmass moves in for the Thanksgiving holiday and
  beyond.

- Our next chance for precip arrives late Sunday into Monday,
  primarily for central and eastern Minnesota and western
  Wisconsin. Otherwise, no significant systems appear to be on
  the horizon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The eastern half of our forecast area is stuck under a deck of
stubborn stratus that extends down through central Missouri and
eastward to the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, the western half of
Minnesota is enjoying a partly sunny but chilly Friday with
temperatures in the low 30s. The aforementioned stratus has
migrated ever so slowly to the east throughout the day, but any
clearing will be short lived. Mid and high clouds are expected
to fill in overnight area wide with persistent overcast/mostly
cloudy conditions through the majority of the forecast period.
Despite the gloomy skies, weekend temperatures will be pleasant
by late November standards, especially by Sunday. Strong WAA
will send highs into the mid 30s to mid 40s, some 5-7 degrees
above normal. With this WAA will come with an increase in
moisture ahead of a trough passing through northern Minnesota
and a weak surface low to the south. While these two features
will be far enough away from the MPX forecast area that we will
miss out on the main precip show, there`s a chance for some rain
and snow showers late Sunday into Monday. Since Sunday will be
warm/above freezing, anything that does fall will do so as rain.
Overnight, a transition to rain/snow is expected with
temperatures near freezing by Monday morning. Central and
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see the bulk of the
precip, but even so amounts will be minimal with QPF coming in
at only a few hundredths.

Temperatures will likely stay at or below freezing from Monday
evening through the remainder of the week. We will see our first
true taste of winter-like temperatures with lows bottoming out in
the teens to single digits by midweek. The coldest portion of
the forecast period will arrive just after the Thanksgiving
holiday and last into the beginning of December. The 6-10 day
CPC temperature outlook highlights this as well. Precip wise, a
clipper on Thanksgiving into Friday may bring our next chance
for some light snow showers, but confidence is low at this point
in time. However, confidence is high on the persistence of
extensive cloud cover from this weekend through next week. It
may not be until next weekend that we finally see some true
sunshine as this cold and dry Canadian airmass takes hold. &&

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Despite a brief break in the stratus layer this past evening
the stratus will hold overnight into Saturday morning. Overall
trends have been for this to remain VFR. There remains a chance
for some high MVFR, but previous chances for IFR look much less
likely. Also with the cloud cover settling in fog is not
expected despite the low winds, as a clear sky is the missing
ingredient for a good fog setup. Winds will remain light
through Saturday with VFR ceilings likely to continue throughout
the day.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR/MVFR, chc -RASN. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...NDC