265
FXUS63 KMPX 091958
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
158 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and drizzle this afternoon through Sunday
  morning.

- Consistent near to slightly above normal temperatures (upper
  40s, low 50s) for the next week.

- Next potential system arrives Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Mesmerizing surface observations show the occluded low over
central Nebraska, with a broad spiral of showers sprawling ahead
of it. Not all of these radar returns are making it to the
ground however, since they are battling a northeastward surging
dry slot (evident on soundings and mid-level water vapor
imagery). Nevertheless, some of the heavier showers have still
been able to squeeze out a few hundredths this morning/afternoon
so far. As the upper low shifts east tonight into tomorrow, the
more saturated atmosphere on the backside is expected to advect
into the region, increasing rainfall chances from west to east.
Light rain showers should exit Minnesota by late morning, and
western Wisconsin by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile, a secondary fropa
will move in from the northwest during the day on Sunday,
bringing cooler temperatures Monday through Tuesday morning next
week.

Winds will increase out of the south Tuesday into Wednesday,
ahead of an approaching trough from the west. This surge of
warm(er), moist(er) air will set up our next chance for rain
across the Upper MS Valley, with eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin having the best chance of seeing the strongest forcing
overlap with the surging moisture plume. The trend of this wave
being weaker and more progressive has stayed true, with most
ensembles showing QPF in the range of 0.25 to 0.5 inches. With
temperatures in the 40s & 50s, any wintry weather should stay
well north of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Well dry out to end the week, with highs staying in the 50s.
Then well be right back into another active period by next week
as multiple waves could eject off a deep upper trough over the
western CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Rain has made its way into southern Minnesota, with several
surface observations reporting it reaching the ground. Despite
this, VFR conditions are expected through early afternoon
before lower ceilings fill in from southwest to northeast.
While rain won`t be particularly heavy, visibilities from
drizzle/mist will diminish through the overnight and early
Sunday morning hours. IFR to near LIFR conditions are
anticipated sometime after midnight and will continue through
the end of the period.

KMSP...VFR conditions should continue until around 20Z, but as
rain moves in, some brief drops in cigs/vis into MVFR are
likely. Have added a TEMPO group to account for this. Rain is
most likely between 22z-02z before several hours of dry
conditions. Ceilings will continue to deteriorate to IFR by
early Sunday morning. Additional showers are possible Sunday
morning, but confidence is low so have only mentioned them in a
PROB30 group.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN EVENING...MVFR bcmg VFR. Wind WNW 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 15-25G35 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...PV