556
FXUS63 KMPX 021159
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
659 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for strong storms Thursday evening and overnight.

- A low confidence precipitation forecast through Labor Day weekend,
  with multiple low chances for rain.

- Summer-like temperatures and humidity continue through Labor Day
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Rain with embedded thunder continue to exit stage right out of
western WI early this morning. For our early birds, you may have
some light rain to contend with early for the next couple of
hours. However, most of if not all rainfall should have
diminished by sunrise. High pressure fills in behind last
night`s activity. Increased subsidence should aid in the
production of mostly sunny skies by this afternoon.
Temperatures today will range in the lower 80s but with dew
points creeping back up into the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat
indices near 90 degrees across southern MN.

For tonight, we will need to watch the progress of a warm front that
will reside near the MN/IA border, forecast guidance anticipates
that this boundary becomes stationary. A weak LLJ will stretch into
the southern counties of Minnesota combined with weak WAA, and ~2000
J/kg of MUCAPE. This will support another night of rain and a few
non-severe thunderstorms across southern MN. An important caveat to
all of this is the unknown impact of capping across this
region. 700mb temps overnight are forecasted to be around 12C.
Given the uncertainty of the capping, continued with the
previous shifts` thinking as well as the latest NBM advertising
30-40% PoPs for this period.

For Thursday, the northern plains remains under upper-level ridging
with a deepening low over the PacNorthwest. On the eastern
periphery of the PacNorthwest trough, a subtle shortwave
develops across eastern ND and northwestern MN. This wave is
then progged east over the apex of the ridge Thursday evening.
Conditions will feel hot and sticky with temperatures in the
upper 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. Thursday night into
early Friday morning, rain and thunderstorms are anticipated to
develop across northwestern MN and move southeast late Thursday
afternoon/evening. The storm mode at first starts off as
supercellular with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all
being primary hazards. However, as the cells move south and
east, they are expected to congeal into a potential MCS
transitioning concerns to primarily a damaging wind threat.

As we head into the Labor Day weekend, conditions will remain warm
and sticky. Zonal flow aloft will aid in several waves to track
across MN/WI and allow for near daily rain/thunder chances. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s with dew points still in the 70s. It is not
until early next week to where temperatures return to the lower 80s
and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions expected today as any morning showers and
thunderstorms should fall apart. Winds will be light, and
generally out of the east.

Later tonight an area of showers and thunderstorms will develop
across Iowa and lift northward. For now, just included a Prob30
group at KMKT, but this may need to get expanded to include
KRWF, KEAU, KMSP, and KRNH if they system trends further north.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout with a small chance for a light
rain shower this morning. Otherwise expect a mix of sun and high
clouds with light easterly winds.

Later tonight into early Thursday morning there could be some
showers and thunderstorms that lift up from the south, but for
now confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, with -SHRA possible early, and -TSRA possible late.
Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Small chance for -TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JRB