308
AWUS01 KWNH 291816
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0151
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Northern LA...Southern MS...Ext. Southwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291815Z - 300000Z

SUMMARY...Potential for training cells within deep moisture
profile suggests locally higher rates and potential for 3" totals
in 2-3 hours nearing FFG values suggests isolated incident(s) of
flash flooding are possible.

DISCUSSION...18z Surface analysis denotes last evening`s outflow
boundary remains angled ESE from SW AL across central MS
intersecting the southward dropping cold front along I-20 between
Jackson and Vicksburg, before being aligned to a weak surface wave
in NW LA.  Regional RADAR and visible imagery shows elevated
convection in proximity to the best divergence along the right
rotor of the upper-level jet crossing out of NE TX into LA;
helping to support the weak surface low.  Low level wind has
responded with increasingly confluent surface to boundary layer
flow from the southwest intersecting the boundary.  Clear skies in
the morning and surface temps to upper 70s over low to mid 70s Tds
support ample buoyancy with core of MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg centered
around and just north of the SW MS corner.

CIRA LPW shows enhanced surface to mid-level moisture advecting
toward this unstable area with values of .8-.9" in the sfc-850mb
resulting in overall PW totals nearing or locally exceeding 2",
suggesting efficient rainfall production in the relatively
narrow/skinny CAPE profiles.   The greater concern is the
alignment of 800 to 400mb unidirectional steering flow mainly
parallel to the old outflow boundary supportive of
training/repeating potential.  The strength of the low level
inflow/flux is only about 15-20kts which may be weak relative for
stronger updraft support but this weakness may counter-balance any
southwestward propagation vectors to maintain the residency time
to overcome the drier ground conditions, e.g. FFG values.  Still,
Hi-Res CAMs support short-term rates of 1-1.5" in 15-30 minutes
and combination with training spots up to 3" which suggest
localized FFG exceedance and therefore incident or two of
scattered flash flooding is possible.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33089375 33029226 32789090 32458949 32028829
            31488807 30948836 30838922 30979021 31379156
            32019317 32509386