255
FXUS64 KMOB 311128
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for local area
  beaches across Alabama and Florida today.

- Daily shower/storm chances will persist today through the week,
  with an increase in afternoon coverage on Thursday. Waterspouts
  will be possible over the Gulf waters mainly during the morning
  hours each day.

- Heat index values near 100 trend higher through this week,
  potentially reaching 105-108 in some locations by late in the
  week on into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Forecast remains on track; no updates needed. /96

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Starting out overnight tonight looking relatively calm. Main key
focus remains to be a tropical low, spinning roughly 125 miles
south of SE LA with associated ongoing convection near/around the
center via GOES-16 IR trends. Comparably, GOES-16 total PW shows
ample, anonymously high PW airmass locked in place across the
coastal/marine areas ranging 2.0-2.2". A thin band of upper-level
cirrus from central LA, east to southern MS/AL/GA reflects the
delineation of weak NE flow helping to press drier tropospheric
air down into the SE, while at the surface, today we`ll see a bit
more unidirectional easterly to east-southeasterly flow at play
with the proximity of the surface low being farther away. The
result will be another developing landbreeze to act as a
focus/enhancement for nearshore scattered showers/storms in the
morning hours. Brief look at waterspout parameters reveals
favorable, weak 0-1km Bulk Shear combined with plenty of low-level
moisture to support another risk for morning waterspouts.
Meanwhile, ample sfc diurnal heating will, combined with subtle
seabreeze confluence near the coast to support a few shallow
scattered showers or storms, primarily in the afternoon/evening
hours, generally similar to what we saw yesterday with showers
riding outflow boundaries to the west at around 20-30mph given
persistent low to mid-level unidirectional easterly flow.

Tuesday through the rest of the week ahead, the pattern will
continue very unchanged day-to-day and remain very summer-like.
Highs build somewhat into the mid 90`s, but daily afternoon mixing
dewpoints into the low 70`s/upper 60`s helping to prevent
afternoon heat indices from reaching heat advisory or greater.
Still seeing subtle reflections of a weak impulse/disturbance
riding west across the northern Gulf coast on Thursday, along the
southern periphery of the ridge anchored to our north. Weak
PVA/ascent will likely aid in support for a greater uptick in
convective coverage on Thursday, which NBM POPs support ranging
50-70% in the afternoon hours.

Going into next weekend, still seeing indications of the ridge
over the Mid-MS valley region to retrograde slightly into the
central Plains. The degree of which, and amplitude of eventual
deep central US ridging will reflect how deep east-coast
troughing can build in, thus allowing subtle impulses to drive
SSE into the southeastern US. Cluster analysis indicates
relatively good alignment in position/strength of the building
anomalously strong ridge over the central US, but what remains
lower confidence is the depth/degree of the east coast trough.
Will keep an eye on how this plays out. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop
this afternoon, mainly over coastal counties. Expect brief
reductions in visibilites and ceilings in some of the heavier
activity. Rain chances lower by the evening hours. Light easterly
winds this morning turn more southeasterly by the afternoon. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A low pressure center located about 125 miles south of southeastern
Louisiana will continue to drift west and move into the upper Texas
or southwestern Louisiana coast Tuesday or Tuesday night. This
system has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or
tropical storm before moving inland. Otherwise, a light to moderate
easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail over the forecast area
through Friday with around 2-3ft waves/seas persisting. Waterspouts
will be possible each day mainly during the morning hours. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  74  91  73 /  30  10  30  10
Pensacola   89  77  90  77 /  30  10  30  20
Destin      89  77  90  77 /  20  10  40  30
Evergreen   94  72  95  70 /  10  10  20  10
Waynesboro  94  73  96  71 /  10   0  10   0
Camden      93  73  94  72 /   0  10   0   0
Crestview   92  72  93  72 /  10  10  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$