587
FXUS64 KMOB 311747
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1247 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...Now through Thursday...

Cooler temperatures on the way....

An upper trough digging south over the East Coast this weekend
shifts an upper high over the Florida Peninsula west over the Gulf
to over the Southern Plains. The decrease in upper subsidence will
bring a drop in temperatures beginning this weekend. A weak surface
front inches its way south over the Southeast Friday through the
weekend, eventually stalling somewhere between I-20 and I-10 by
Sunday. A drier airmass moves south over the region behind the
front. With the southward push inconsistent in deterministic models,
PoPs this weekend into the coming week are a challenge to place as
the East Coast upper trough shifts west over the Southeast.
Add in some guidance advertising a weak surface low forming along a
surface trough developing along/just southeast of I-65, and moisture
placement is interesting. Am leaning towards an ensemble solution
for the moisture/PoP conundrum, with the ensembles in good
agreement. On this vein, a drier airmass will push slowly south over
the forecast area, shifting best PoPs southward. For the forecast,
scattered to numerous showers forecast area wide this weekend
becomes more scattered  well southeast of I-65 by Thursday tapering
to isolated northwest of I-65.

Looking at temperatures, high temperatures above seasonal norms
Friday (90-95) drop into the low/mid 80s northeast of a Butler to
Crestview line, upper 80s to around 90 southwest by Monday. Heat
Indices in the 100-106 range Friday drop to below 100 by Saturday.
Temperatures then moderate upwards through the week, to upper 80s to
low 90s by Thursday. With a drier airmass maintained over the
forecast area, Heat Indices rise back into the upper 90s to around
100 range by Thursday with the increase in daytime temperatures. Low
temperatures also see a drop through the weekend, with mid 70s to
around 80 tonight dropping into the around 70 to low 70s inland from
the coast to mid/upper 70s near/along the coast Sunday night.
Through the coming week, the decrease in moisture levels will bring
a modest rise in low temperatures, to the 70-75 degree range inland,
75-78 along the coast.

A decrease in onshore flow and swell on area beaches will help to
keep the risk of Rip Currents to a Low Risk Friday into the coming
week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop once again across
the local area this afternoon. Expect brief reductions in
visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Winds
will generally be out of the southwest through the period. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will continue
through the end of the week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or
less. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  94  75  91  74  91  73  89 /  30  80  40  70  40  70  40  70
Pensacola   80  92  79  92  76  90  75  89 /  20  80  40  80  50  80  50  70
Destin      81  92  80  91  78  89  76  89 /  20  70  40  80  60  80  60  70
Evergreen   75  95  74  93  72  88  70  88 /  40  70  40  70  40  70  30  60
Waynesboro  74  94  69  90  69  88  69  89 /  40  70  30  50  20  50  20  50
Camden      75  94  73  90  71  86  68  87 /  40  60  30  60  30  70  20  60
Crestview   76  93  75  93  73  88  71  88 /  20  80  30  90  50  90  50  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051-052-059-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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