Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
709 FXUS64 KMOB 222346 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 546 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 546 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 - Wintry weather is possible mainly Sunday evening across portions of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. Forecast trends will continue to be monitored over the coming days. - Bitter cold temperatures are expected mainly Sunday night and Monday night with overnight temperatures dipping into the teens to lower 20s. Wind chills values both nights could range from as low as the single digits well inland to the teens near the coast. - Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from Sunday through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 A positively tilted upper trof evolves over the western CONUS through Saturday and absorbs a cut off low near the Baja area before progressing into the central states. The upper trof continues into the eastern states on Monday then ejects off into the western Atlantic Monday night. A weak frontal boundary extending from central Louisiana over into southern/central Alabama slowly drifts into the northern Gulf through Friday. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for tonight, then for Friday will have similar pops except for dry conditions developing west of I-65 Friday afternoon. The frontal boundary returns northward through much of the forecast area on Saturday, becoming oriented across the extreme northwest portion of the area by late Saturday afternoon before continuing further northward Saturday evening. A surface low located near the Texas Coast Saturday morning is expected to lift to west central Alabama by Sunday morning then moves quickly off to the northeast later on Sunday, with a strong cold front pushing through the forecast area in the process. Have gone with chance to likely pops on Saturday, with likely pops over the westernmost portion, then likely to categorical pops follow for Saturday night with categorical pops on Sunday. While confidence has improved with the trajectory of the surface low, there is still the potential for the surface low to traverse the western portion of the area, which then increases the potential for more wintry precipitation as colder air surges into the area in the wake of the surface low. At this time, we are continuing to stay close to the previous package with a chance for wintry precipitation across much of southeast Mississippi to interior southwest Alabama mainly during the late evening hours. The precipitation will be ending from west to east Sunday night, and is anticipated to end before there is a potential for wintry precipitation elsewhere. Any accumulation of glaze or snow looks very limited, if any, so at most anticipate that a Winter Weather Advisory may become necessary. Along with the potential for wintry weather, there is the potential for strong storms to develop starting late Saturday night before the front moves through on Sunday mainly across the southern portions of the area. This is entirely dependent on whether or not sufficient instability is realized, but abundant favorable shear will be present with an 850 mb jet near 50 knots. The LREF is currently indicating only 1-5% chance of SBCAPE values of 500+ J/kg late Saturday night into Sunday except for about a 10% chance near the immediate coast. Considering this, will continue to monitor at this point. Very cold air flows into the area in the wake of the cold front. Lows Sunday night range from the upper teens well inland to the mid/upper 20s at the coast, and lows Monday night will be a bit colder and range from mid/upper teens well inland to the lower/mid 20s at the coast. Wind chill values drop to about 5-15 along and west of I-65 by early Monday morning with values of 15-20 further to the east. Wind chill values drop to 9-15 across much of the area by early Tuesday morning. An Extreme Cold Watch/Warning is issued for wind chill values of 10 or lower over interior areas and 15 or lower over the southern portion of the area. A Cold Weather Advisory is issues for wind chill values of 11-20 over interior areas and for values of 16-25 over the southern portion of the area. Based on the forecast wind chill values, anticipate that a blend of Extreme Cold Watch/Warning and Cold Weather Advisory products will likely become necessary for Sunday night into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday morning. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through tonight with a low risk for Friday and Friday night. A moderate risk of rip currents on Saturday increases to a high risk on Sunday, then decreases to a moderate risk on Monday. /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 IFR ceilings north of I-10 will slowly migrate to the coast this evening as a weak surface front sags southward. Localized LIFR ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities are possible after midnight into Friday as the clouds continue to trend downward. Ceilings will improve into the mid-MVFR range by noon Friday, along with VFR visibilities. Light and variable winds south of the front will shift to a light north wind overnight. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1241 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Light southeasterly winds become northerly late tonight into Friday morning as a cold front moves through. A light to moderate northeasterly flow Friday night turns southeasterly on Saturday. A moderate southerly flow Saturday night strengthens Sunday morning then switches to the northwest late Sunday afternoon into the evening as a strong cold front moves through, with a strong offshore flow continuing into Monday. Small craft may nee to exercise caution over the open Gulf waters Saturday and Saturday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary from Sunday into Monday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 55 67 48 67 / 30 30 20 50 Pensacola 59 68 53 67 / 30 40 30 30 Destin 58 67 53 65 / 20 40 20 20 Evergreen 51 64 43 65 / 40 40 20 40 Waynesboro 48 60 39 59 / 20 10 20 60 Camden 48 59 40 61 / 40 20 10 50 Crestview 53 69 48 67 / 30 40 20 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$