679
FXUS62 KMLB 192002
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
302 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Tuesday morning
  for interior locations; patchy frost is also possible

- Warming trend through late week and the first half of the weekend

- Low rain chances return late Wednesday and continue into the
  weekend; rain amounts generally 0.10" or less

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Now-Tonight...The few clouds out there today can be found along
the Treasure Coast. Sunny skies have tried to help "warm" things
up into the 50s this afternoon, but even southern locations are
struggling to hit the 60-degree mark. Gusty conditions are
occurring south of Melbourne with recent gusts of 25 to 30 mph at
Vero Beach and Sebastian. RAP analysis indicates a lingering
pressure gradient there, which is funneling the occasionally
stronger north-northeast winds toward the Treasure Coast.

With mostly clear conditions forecast, temperatures will
efficiently drop into the 30s and 40s after midnight. HREF
guidance points to a 10-20% chance (or less) of reaching freezing
in far northwestern Lake and Volusia counties. However, patchy
frost is possible north of I-4 and in rural portions of Osceola
County. There will also be a northerly breeze overnight between 5
and 10 mph (up to 15 mph at the coast). Over the interior, this
light breeze and cold temperatures will combine to produce wind
chill values in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. Thus, another
Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Tuesday morning,
stretching from inland Volusia County to Lake Okeechobee. Areas
closer to the coast will be chilly but not cold enough to
experience these sub-30 degree wind chills.

Tuesday-Wednesday...High pressure is forecast to drift toward the
Mid Atlantic by Wednesday with its influence keeping conditions
dry locally. A gradual warmup ensues, bringing us closer to normal
high temperatures by Wednesday afternoon in the low to mid 70s.
The pressure gradient around the southern periphery of the high
tightens up a bit, particularly tomorrow, leading to 10-15 mph
north-northeast winds and gusts 20-25 mph (occasionally 30 mph at
the coast). Clouds develop along the Treasure Coast Tuesday
afternoon, followed by an overall increase in low and high level
clouds Wednesday as moisture increases. Isolated showers return to
the forecast Wednesday night from Sebastian Inlet southward,
though confidence is low in rain amounting to any more than a few
hundredths of an inch.

Thursday-Sunday (modified)...Surface high pressure weakens mid to
late week but is still forecast to maintain a weak influence on
our local conditions. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to
develop near the Bahamas late this week, eventually washing out
into a nearly stationary boundary across the Atlantic, extending
toward the Florida Peninsula. Locally, northeast flow is
anticipated to continue advecting moisture towards the area and
when coupled with some energy aloft traversing the peninsula on
Thursday, will lead to a low chance (20-30%) for shower
development (favoring coastal locations).

By Friday, lingering moisture along the boundary and onshore flow
will bring another day with low chances for showers, especially
at the coast. A cold front is forecast to approach north Florida
and slow down Saturday into Sunday. There are inconsistencies in
the medium range regarding timing and when this front actually
reaches central Florida. However, rain chances reach 15-25% across
the north by Sunday as the front slowly works southward. Check
back for future updates on when this front may finally push
through the area and if any additional moisture along the front
affects rain chances early next week.

Temperatures continue warming through Saturday, reaching above
normal values areawide late this week into the weekend. Then, a
return to colder weather arrives gradually next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions remain through late afternoon
and early this evening, primarily south of Sebastian Inlet. Waves
of 5-7 ft will slowly recede, despite northerly winds remaining
15-18 kt through the overnight period. Poor conditions return to
much of the local Atlantic tomorrow morning as north-northeasterly
winds freshen again, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible
by tomorrow afternoon (especially in the Gulf Stream). Seas build
6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream in response to breezy/gusty conditions.
Winds then decrease from Wednesday night onward as high pressure
weakens over the local waters. Seas fall below 6 ft by Friday with
generally favorable boating conditions continuing into the first
half of the weekend.

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast beginning Wednesday
night and continuing intermittently through at least Saturday. No
lightning storms are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR through the period. North winds have been occasionally gusty
this afternoon, but settle into the evening. A gradual wind
increase is forecast after midnight becoming 6-9 kts at most
terminals by sunrise. North-northeast winds become breezy Tuesday
with gusts increasing to 20-25 kts along the coast. Dry conditions
persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Dry conditions persist Tuesday with relative humidity values
falling into the 30 percent range north of I-4. With a north-
northeast breeze 10-15 mph, sensitive fire conditions may develop
in the afternoon. From Wednesday onward, moisture begins to return
to the area, lowering fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  38  61  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  39  63  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  42  67  55  73 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  43  69  57  74 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  35  61  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  37  63  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  38  63  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  42  69  56  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Law