322
FXUS62 KMLB 112336
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
736 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- A gradual increase in showers and storms is expected each day
  through the weekend. Excessive rainfall rates within slow-moving
  storms will be capable of causing flooding in urban and poorly-
  drained locations. Expect frequent lightning and spotty wind
  gusts from 40 to 50 mph from the strongest storms.

- Outside of the storms, seasonably high moisture and increasingly
  hot temperatures are forecast. With Moderate to locally Major
  HeatRisk over Central Florida, residents and visitors should
  remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C if
  feeling unwell.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Please swim near a
  lifeguard.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current-Tonight... A surface ridge axis extends across north Florida
this afternoon keeping light south-southeast flow in place locally.
The east and west coast sea breezes have developed, initiating
isolated to scattered showers and storms. Peak coverage (50-70%) of
convection is forecast west of Orlando late this afternoon as a sea
breeze collision occurs. Weak shear profiles and light steering flow
will allow for slow moving or stationary storms, and will need to
monitor rainfall accumulations with the possibility of a few Flood
Advisories this afternoon and evening. Activity across the interior
lingers through around 9-10 PM with dry conditions then forecast
through the overnight. Morning low temperatures remain muggy in the
low to mid 70s.

Friday-Weekend... Flat mid-level ridging will persist over the
southern U.S. through the weekend. A surface ridge axis over central
Florida on Friday will shift southward this weekend. Seasonably
high moisture will support a summertime pattern of scattered
showers and storms, and developing light southwest flow should
favor best coverage (40-70%) across the central and eastern side
of the peninsula each day. Steering flow remains light, supporting
a locally heavy rainfall threat with slow moving or stationary
storms. Quick 2-3" rainfall accumulations will be possible and may
cause nuisance or localized flooding of urban or low-lying areas.
Otherwise, afternoon storms will be capable of frequent lightning
strikes and gusty winds of 40-50 mph. A brief funnel cloud or
waterspout cannot be ruled out along chaotic boundary collisions.

Outside of afternoon showers and storms, focus is directed towards a
period of building heat. Ridging aloft and light offshore flow will
promote slightly above normal temperatures, mostly ranging the low
90s along the coast and low to mid 90s inland. When factoring in
humidity, peak heat index values increase 100-105F Saturday and
Sunday. A moderate HeatRisk is expected across much of central
Florida on Friday with a Major HeatRisk outlined across portions of
the Orlando metro and northern Lake county. The Major HeatRisk then
expands to include areas near, north, and west of I-4 and portions
of Brevard county this weekend. This level of heat affects anyone
without adequate cooling and hydration. Protect yourself from the
heat by limiting strenuous outdoor activity and taking frequent
breaks in the shade or in an air conditioned building. Never leave
kids or pets unattended in a vehicle, and look before you lock!

Monday-Wednesday... The upper level pattern begins to transition
early to mid next week as a shortwave trough digs across the U.S.
central plains on Tuesday and into the southeast on Wednesday.
Stagnant ridging aloft is nudged south and east in response. The
surface ridge axis remains south of the area with a period of
southwest flow continuing locally. Deeper offshore flow will work to
pin the sea breeze closer to the I-95 corridor, particularly by
Tuesday. A diurnal pattern of showers and storms continues with
greatest coverage focused in vicinity of I-95 Monday and Tuesday (50-
70%). High temperatures remain a few degrees above normal, mostly
spreading the low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s across the
interior. Muggy conditions look to persist with peak heat index
values continuing to range around 100-105F each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue through the weekend. Light
south-southeast flow through the remainder of today shifts south to
southwest into Friday as a surface ridge axis moves south of the
local waters. Offshore flow out of the southwest then continues into
the weekend. Local enhancements in winds 10-15 kts are forecast each
evening. Seas 2-3 ft subside to become mostly 2 ft. Mostly dry
outside of scattered showers near the coast each afternoon. Better
chances for offshore moving showers will exist into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

with convection focused
TSRA INVOF of KMCO/Orland terminal should wind down by 03Z at the
latest, then mostly quiet conditions overnight. Wind have already
become light/VRB at inland terminals, and ESE-SE winds 5-10 kts
at coastal terminals will follow later tonight. Winds remains
light/VRB into Friday until the east coast sea breeze develops,
shifting winds onshore 5-10 kts after 17Z as the boundary moves
inland. Another typical sea breeze SHRA/TSRA pattern expected
Friday, with with convection focused along the sea breeze in the
afternoon, and the collision (highest coverage of TSRA) late in
the afternoon into the evening hours. Light flow will favor a
collision near the center of the peninsula and the inland
terminals. TSRA/SHRA will persist after 00Z Saturday (late Friday
evening), and could linger as late as 04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  93 /  10  30  10  30
MCO  75  92  76  93 /  20  70  30  60
MLB  77  90  76  91 /  10  50  20  40
VRB  75  90  75  91 /  10  40  20  40
LEE  76  92  76  94 /  30  40  30  40
SFB  75  94  76  95 /  20  60  30  50
ORL  76  93  77  94 /  20  60  30  50
FPR  74  89  74  90 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Haley