366
FXUS62 KMLB 061815
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
215 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025


- Hot and very humid conditions with scattered daily
  lightning storms into early next week.

- Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure across Texas will build
eastward through tonight. Surface high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic will continue to shift southward towards the
Bahamas into tonight, with the ridge axis remaining draped across
central-south Florida. While forecasts show the overall SAL
decreasing slightly across the Florida peninsula, east central
Florida will remain in its influence through the day. This coupled
with ridging through the layers will help keep rain and lightning
storm chances below climatology, with increased confidence that the
NBM PoPs are too high once again today (NBM is showing widespread 50-
70 percent PoPs).

Lower than normal rain chances are supported by forecast soundings
showing warmer temperatures aloft (-6 to -7 C at 500mb), and modest
lapse rates. Thus, have continued to blend in CONSAll guidance to
maintain a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance for rain and
lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
storms are forecast to form along the coast as the east coast sea
breeze pushes onshore this afternoon, as well as scattered storms
pushing into the interior from the west (generally I-4 corridor
northward) from the west coast sea breeze pushing into the local
area. Additional showers and storms will then form along boundary
interactions between the sea breezes and outflow boundaries through
late afternoon, with any lingering activity pushing off the coast
through the evening hours. Hi-rez guidance shows the highest
coverage of showers and storms occurring across and north of the I-4
corridor into late afternoon. Main storm threats today will be wind
gusts of 30-40 mph (but up to 50 mph will be possible if storms can
take advantage of the drier air aloft), occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will be hot and humid once again today, with
afternoon highs in the low 90s with peak heat indices of 100-103.
Tonight, dry conditions are forecast across land areas, with
isolated to scattered showers and storms possible along the Atlantic
waters. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The pattern
generally continues through the weekend, with the surface ridge
axis remaining south of the local area, though the ridge over the
western Atlantic will elongate/drift eastward through the period.
Slightly drier air across east central Florida , with forecast PW
values around to 1.5" to 1.8", will be the main difference. This
slightly drier air combined with continued warmer (~-7C) 500mb
temperatures, will help to decrease overall rain chances. Thus,
have continued to undercut the NBM each day. Have maintained a low
to medium (20-30 percent on Saturday and 30-40 percent on Sunday)
chance of rain and lightning storms through the weekend.
Increasingly drier air in the mid to upper levels could support a
few stronger wind gusts, should storms develop and be able to take
advantage of it. Temperatures will creep higher through Sunday,
with highs reaching the lower to mid-90s each day. Continued
southwesterly flow will limit the inland progression of the east
coast sea breeze. Heat indices remaining around 98-103 degrees.

Monday-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The surface
ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic next week, as
the ridge axis drifts northward through the local area. Meanwhile,
a series of weak upper-level shortwaves are forecast to pass
through the Deep South. As the ridge axis moves northward, higher
moisture will return to east central Florida, advected in by
southerly flow. The east coast sea breeze will drift increasingly
inland, with a collision over the interior. Higher shower and
storm chances return, though likely not with enough coverage to
support the 90% produced by the NBM. Thus, have gone with a more
seasonable 50-60% each day next week. Temperatures will remain hot
through at least Tuesday, before a more dominant east coast sea
breeze develops into late week. Highs remaining in the lower to
mid-90s early in the week, then upper 80s to lower 90s for the
rest of the period. Heat indices 100-105 remain forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Today-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Generally
favorable boating conditions through mid-week next week, as high
pressure remains in control across the local area. The main threat
will be scattered offshore- moving showers and storms in the late
afternoon and evening hours each day. South to southwesterly flow
will back southeasterly along the coast each afternoon and
increase to 10-15 kts as the east coast sea breeze develops, but
remains pinned close to the coast through early next week. Seas
1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Convective line of showers and isold TSRA from KLEE to 10N KZPH at
1725Z will continue to progress eastward into mid to late
afternoon. Added some short TEMPO TSRA windows for KSFB-KDAB-KMCO
with eastward propagating storms through 23z. Continued VCTS for
KISM-KTIX corridor and no mention for now from KMLB-KSUA as most
of the convection should stay north of the Treasure Coast. Expect
VFR conds overnight into Sat morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  93  73  93 /  10  30  10  40
MCO  74  93  74  94 /  10  30  10  40
MLB  74  91  73  91 /  20  30  10  30
VRB  73  91  72  91 /  10  30  10  30
LEE  74  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  40
SFB  74  94  74  94 /  10  30  10  40
ORL  75  93  75  93 /  10  30  10  40
FPR  73  90  72  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Volkmer