065
FXUS62 KMLB 311838
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
238 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

- Hazardous heat continues today and Friday. A Heat Advisory
  remains in effect until 7 PM today across all of east central
  Florida for peak heat index values up to 110 degrees. An
  additional Heat Advisory has been issued for Friday from noon to
  7 PM for peak heat index values up to 110 degrees.

- Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety
  actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat
  exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay
  informed.

- Shower and storm chances will be near to below normal today and
  tomorrow (30-50%), with rain chances then increasing through the
  weekend into early next week (up to 50-70%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight... Mid-level high pressure will remain in
place today, continuing the hazardous heat across east central
Florida. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the mid 90s with peak
heat indices of 108-110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
for all east central Florida from noon until 7 PM today. Surface
high pressure over the region will result in offshore flow once
again across the local area, with the east coast sea breeze forecast
to form and push inland this afternoon. Despite PW values being 1.8-
2.0" today, overall rain chances are slightly lower today than
previous days. Have maintained a low to medium (30-40 percent)
chance for rain and lighting storms this afternoon and evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop
with the sea breeze into early afternoon, with the greatest
potential and coverage for storms occurring across the interior
through the late afternoon/evening where boundary collisions are
favored. While the 15Z XMR sounding shows slightly less dry air
aloft than yesterday, the potential for some stronger storms
continues to exist. Main storm hazards today will be frequent
lightning, strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy
rainfall of 1-3 inches, which may lead to minor flooding. Any
lingering activity will dissipate or move offshore by late evening,
leaving mostly dry conditions overnight. Tonight, warm and muggy
conditions are forecast with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Center of mid-level
ridge shifts gradually westward, with hazardous heat continuing.
Highs still forecast to reach the low to mid 90s and peak heat index
values in the 105-110 degree range. A Heat Advisory has been issued
for Brevard to Osceola county northward from noon to 7 PM on Friday.
Rain chances will slowly rise with a gradual increase in moisture
and lessing influence of the ridge aloft, increasing to 30-50
percent tomorrow and up to 40-60 percent on Saturday. Ridge axis
will remain just south of the area continuing a light offshore flow,
but sea breeze should still develop and move inland, with greatest
rain chances remaining across the interior from late day boundary
interactions. A few stronger storms will still be possible each day.
Convection will wind down through late evening, with mostly dry
conditions overnight. It will remain warm and muggy each night with
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday-Wednesday...(Previous Discussion) Frontal boundary shifts
southward into north Florida by late weekend and stalls north of the
area into the early to middle portion of next week. Hot and humid
conditions are forecast to continue south of the front, with highs
still in the low to mid 90s. However, increasing moisture leading to
greater shower/storm chances through the period (up to 60-70%) and a
little more cloud cover should help to keep heat index values just
below Heat Advisory criteria, but still elevated up to 102-107
degrees.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Today-Monday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast through
early next week. High pressure axis will generally remain south of
the area with a relatively light offshore flow (5-10 knots or less)
in the morning and overnight hours, becoming south-southeast each
afternoon and evening up to 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 ft in the
nearshore waters and up to 3 ft at times in the offshore waters
through the weekend before building up to 2-4 ft on Monday. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop over the
waters each day, especially during the morning and overnight hours.
However, because of the weak offshore steering flow, some storms may
push back toward the coast and just offshore during the afternoon
and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

VFR conditions prevailing. The east coast sea breeze has developed
along the coast, with isolated showers and storms along it. In
addition, a few storms have developed along an outflow boundary,
exiting LEE as of around 17Z. Additional isolated to scattered
showers and storms will remain possible into this evening. Chaotic
boundary interactions dictate convective development, making it
difficult to pinpoint timing of convection. However, CAM guidance
suggests a sea breeze collision over interior central Florida
around 22-1Z. So, have included TEMPOs for MCO/ISM/SFB. VCSH/VCTS
looks to linger through the evening hours, before clearing by
around 4Z. Along the coast, once the sea breeze moves inland by
22Z, drier conditions are forecast.

Light southwesterly flow will prevail overnight and into Friday
morning. Then, winds once again become southeasterly as the sea
breeze develops and moves inland. Winds remaining around 10 kts or
less. Additional afternoon showers and storms are forecast for
Friday, beginning around 17Z along the coast and 19Z inland (MCO).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  95  77  94 /  20  30  10  60
MCO  79  96  78  96 /  30  50  10  60
MLB  79  93  78  93 /  20  40  10  50
VRB  76  94  75  93 /  10  40  10  40
LEE  78  95  78  94 /  10  30  10  60
SFB  79  96  78  95 /  30  40  10  60
ORL  79  96  79  96 /  30  40  10  60
FPR  74  93  73  93 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy