837
FXUS62 KMLB 310522
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
122 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- An active weather pattern will persist across East Central
  Florida this week as onshore flow and high moisture supports
  above normal rain and storm chances, including during the
  overnights and early mornings. Strong storms will be possible
  each day.

- Primary storm hazards today will be gusty winds to 55 mph, with
  a very low chance for isolated damaging winds to around 60 mph,
  frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that could lead
  to flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. Small
  hail can`t be ruled out.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue to produce heat indices in the
  triple digits through the week. Be sure to take frequent breaks
  in the shade or air conditioning if spending prolonged time
  outdoors to avoid the development of heat-related illness.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure over the southern and up
to the central US will remain in place today, with shortwave energy
traversing across the Florida peninsula. At the surface, the ridge
axis over the western Atlantic will remain north of the Florida
peninsula. Locally, easterly flow will persist, both at the surface
and aloft. This will allow the east coast sea breeze to push farther
inland once again this afternoon. Moisture across the local area
will remain above normal, with PW values of 2.0-2.2". This will
support scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon (PoP
40-70%). Scattered showers and storms have already pushed onshore
along the coast, primarily from Cape Canaveral southward), with
additional storms forming along outflow boundaries as this activity
pushes inland. Local guidance continues to show activity
increasing and focusing across the interior this afternoon and
early evening. Highest coverage of storms will occur across the
interior, in association with the sea breeze collision late this
afternoon and into this evening.

The environment supports this higher coverage of storms, with plenty
of instability (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index
of -4 to -6), fairly cold aloft (-7C at 500 mb), and sufficient
downdraft potential (DCAPE 600-700 J/kg). Main storm hazards will be
frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, with a very low (less
than 2%) chance for isolated damaging winds around 60 mph, small
hail, and heavy rainfall of 2-3" (with up to a 5% chance for mounts
over 4"), which may lead to minor localized flooding. The Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) has outlined all of east central Florida
into a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall. Any
lingering activity will diminish shortly after sundown, with
activity across the Atlantic waters continuing through the overnight
hours. Some of this activity may push onshore through the night,
with PoP 20-40% lingering along the coast overnight to account for
this. Temperatures will be near normal, with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the
interior. These temperatures coupled with humidity will produce peak
heat indices of 100-107F, which remains below Heat Advisory
criteria. HeatRisk impacts remain generally Moderate, with a few
areas of Major in and around the Orlando Metro Area, and along the
southern coast. Conditions tonight will remain warm and muggy with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Friday... Upper level high pressure over the southern US will
slowly shift eastward through the time period. At the surface, high
pressure over the Atlantic will remain in place, with the ridge axis
staying north of the Florida peninsula. Locally, deep easterly flow
will prevail, with speeds generally around 10 mph. This will support
the development and farther inland progression of the east coast sea
breeze each afternoon. Moisture across the local area will remain
near to above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon
showers and lightning storms are forecast to continue (PoP 40-70%),
with scattered storms forming along the advancing east coast sea
breeze through early afternoon each day, with additional showers and
storms forming across the interior by mid afternoon into early
evening. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior,
where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each evening,
generally around Orlando westward. Model soundings trend closer
to the long-skinny profile, resulting in a little less instability
and downdraft enhancement from entrainment, but better supporting
heavy rainfall. Storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty
winds, and locally heavy rainfall, with minor flooding possible in
urban and poor drainage areas. Shower and lightning storm
activity will diminish into the overnight hours, however,
scattered showers and storms will continue across the Atlantic
waters each night. Some of this activity may push onshore along
the coast in the easterly flow through the night and into the
morning hours each day (PoP20-40%).

Temperatures will remain seasonably hot and humid with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s across the
interior. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce
heat indices of 100-106, with up to 108 possible in spots next week.
A Heat Advisory may be needed for some parts of east central Florida
next week. Be sure to stay adequately hydrated if spending extended
periods of time outdoors and also take breaks in the shade or in air
conditioning to help prevent the development of heat-related
illness. Overnight lows will continue to be warm and muggy with lows
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Today-Friday... Generally favorable boating conditions expected.
Atlantic high pressure axis will remain north of the local area
through the period. This will result in deep easterly flow
persisting through the week. Wind speeds are forecast to generally
remain between 5 to 10 knots through the period. Seas 1-3ft will
build up to 4 ft, highest across the offshore waters, into mid-week.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the
Atlantic each day, with activity moving onshore (towards the
peninsula). Highest rain chances (50-70%) during the daytime
periods, with lingering chances (40-50%) overnight. Main storm
hazards will be lightning, gusty winds in excess of 30 knots, heavy
downpours, and locally higher seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms
with onshore flow. TAFs begin with VCTS and TEMPO TSRA groups at
KVRB/KFPR. Light and variable winds will increase from the east-
northeast at 5-10kts after 15Z-18Z. VCTS and TEMPO TSRA groups are
forecast in the afternoon and evening between 16Z-22Z. The
potential exists for isolated strong storms across ECFL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  76  88  75 /  50  20  60  20
MCO  92  75  91  75 /  60  20  70  20
MLB  89  76  89  77 /  50  20  60  20
VRB  89  75  89  75 /  50  30  70  30
LEE  91  76  90  75 /  60  20  70  30
SFB  91  75  91  76 /  60  20  70  20
ORL  91  76  91  76 /  60  20  70  20
FPR  89  75  89  75 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Fehling