957
FXUS63 KMKX 311935
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
235 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High swim risk extended through tomorrow morning at all Lake
  Michigan beaches.

- Wildfire smoke will create persistent haze and air quality at
  unhealthy levels through tomorrow.

- Much more comfortable conditions through the weekend with
  drier air over the region.

- Humidity gradually returns early next week, along with shower
  and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 235 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Tonight through Sunday:

The wildfire smoke streamed into southern WI from central Canada in
the wake of a cold front and it continues to obscure the visibility
to 5 miles or less across much of Wisconsin and Minnesota. The
area of smoke is easy to view using the satellite RGB composite
of Geocolor. The HRRR smoke model shows near-surface smoke
through the afternoon, with improvement tonight, and then an
additional period of near-surface smoke tomorrow morning.

The Air Quality Advisory (issued by the DNR and relayed by the NWS)
was extended through noon tomorrow and the reissuances will be
re-evaluated each morning through the weekend.

The high swim risk continues. The persistent northeast winds
overnight into Friday morning should keep wave heights elevated
a little longer Friday morning, so we extended the Beach
Hazards Statement until 10 am for the northern two counties and
until 1 pm for the southern three counties.

Clear skies tonight and dewpoints in the 50s will allow for low
temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s inland from Lake
Michigan. Winds will remain slightly elevated tonight, but there
will still be a strong inversion. Patchy, shallow fog is possible in
the susceptible low-lying areas and within fields tonight, but there
is a better chance for areas of dense fog to develop early Saturday
and Sunday morning as the surface high resides overhead.

Friday highs will be a notch warmer than today, in the mid to upper
70s. The amount of smoke in the atmosphere may keep us capped in the
mid 70s though. Saturday highs should be in the upper 70s with
potentially less smoke aloft. The high will begin to shift eastward,
out of WI, Sunday afternoon. Winds will become southerly but remain
light through the day. High temperatures Sunday will be around 80,
and the Sunday night lows will be in the upper 50s inland and lower-
mid 60s along the lakeshore.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 235 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Monday through Thursday:

As the high shifts out of WI, the timing differs between models for
how soon thunderstorm chances return to our area. An upper trough
will cross WI and the Midwest Monday afternoon and returning
moisture and warm temps into the area will fuel the environment for
diurnally driven thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon. The GFS appears to be too quick with too much moisture
when compared to the almost-too-dry ECMWF Monday through Tuesday, so
a model blend seems reasonable at this time.

By Wednesday, there will be a more direct feed of moisture from the
Gulf to the Midwest, but the timing of the upper trough may not be
aligned with afternoon daytime heating, so the chance for storms
would continue to be on the low side. A stronger upper trough is
expected to track across the Northern Plains on Thursday or Thursday
night and could bring a round of stronger storms to the region.
However, there are timing differences and the time of day that the
upper trough approaches WI will make a difference in storm coverage
and severity.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 235 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Diurnal cumulus clouds with bases between 3000 and 4000 ft AGL
are occurring over southeast WI but will diminish with sunset
this evening. Wildfire smoke will continue to cause visibility
restrictions to 2 to 5 SM (MVFR) from Madison and east, with
slightly higher (VFR) values west of there through the
afternoon hours. Some improvement to the visibility is likely
later this evening through the overnight, but models suggest
additional near-surface smoke to move back in Friday morning.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 235 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Breezy north to northeast winds will persist across Lake Michigan
through Friday as high pressure around 30.3 inches moves into the
western Great Lakes from the Northern Plains. This area of high
pressure will slowly move eastward and be overhead Saturday. Winds
will light and variable across the lake much of the day Saturday
before becoming light south to southeasterly Sunday afternoon as the
high pushes into the New England States. Low pressure around
29.9 inches will gradually approach from the Northern Plains on
Monday and Tuesday, so look for increasing southerly winds and
a chance for thunderstorms.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 10 AM Friday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM
     Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 10 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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