Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
539 FXUS63 KMKX 160557 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions continue through Friday, but not quite as hot as the last couple days. - Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances along and west of I-90 corridor Thursday afternoon. - Wildfire smoke from across northern MN and northwestern Ontario will continue through Thursday contributing to unhealthy air quality. WI DNR issued air quality alert for all southern WI through Thursday for unhealthy to very unhealthy conditions. - Shower and storm chances gradually increase for the end of the week into the weekend along with closer to normal temps. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Tonight through Friday: Areas of smoke are expected to continue tonight into Thursday across southern Wisconsin. Visibilities of 3-6 miles are likely and may dip to 1-3 miles at times. The latest HRRR near surface smoke suggests some improvement possible by tomorrow afternoon along and southwest of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to Burlington. On the other hand, the HRRR is showing a potential surge of more smoke from the east/northeast in the afternoon, which could keep the smoke going towards the lake. By Friday, southwesterly winds are expected to develop, which should result in a break in the smoke in at least the lower levels. Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist Thursday and Friday, though likely a few degrees shy of the temps from the last couple days. Additionally, it`s uncertain how much smoke will impact the highs Thursday, so kept the forecast near the middle of model solutions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon into the evening, particularly along/southwest of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to Janesville. This area will be on the higher dewpoint side of a moisture boundary and will also have the best chance to see a reduction in smoke and therefore more heating/instability. Scattered showers/storms will be possible on Friday as well. Could see brief downpours both Thu and Fri with precipitable water values around 1.75". DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Saturday through Wednesday: A cold front will drop through during the day Saturday and may bring scattered storms to southern Wisconsin. Latest model trends keep the higher precip chances south and east, though. It will be warm and humid again Saturday. With cooler and drier conditions not expected to arrive until at least the evening hours. Dry weather and near normal temps are then expected Sunday under high pressure. Another low and front will bring storm chances on Monday along with briefly warmer and more humid conditions ahead of the front. High pressure will follow this system, with near normal temps and dry weather likely for Tue and Wed. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Could see a shower or two overnight, but otherwise dry weather is expected. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon into the evening, mainly along and southwest of a line from the Wisconsin Dells to Burlington. The other focus for the overnight hours into Thursday will be tracking the progression of smoke from Canadian wildfires into southern Wisconsin. Much of the forecast area will experience at least some surface smoke tonight into Thursday. Visibilities could drop as low as 1-3 miles in areas that do see the smoke. Visibilities may improve during the day tomorrow, especially from Madison southwestward, though there could be another surge of smoke from the northeast in the afternoon. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 A back door cold front has brought a northerly wind shift across the lake which will continue into Thursday. Additional seeing wildfire smoke from northern MN and northwestern Ontario reducing visibility across the northern third of the open waters to 1 nm or less at times likely into Thursday. Thus a Marine Dense Smoke Advisory continues. Smoke is expected to continue to spread southward, but uncertain on how low visibilities will fall for the southern portions of Lake Michigan. Will continue to monitor if an expansion of the advisory will be needed. Otherwise, lighter winds expected again on Thursday as another high pressure around 30.1 inches briefly builds back into the region before influence from a low pressure around 29.7 inches developing over the northern Plains pushes eastward through the weekend bringing more southwesterly flow for Friday into Saturday. Then as the low tracking northeastward, it will drag a cold front across the Lake resulting in northerly wind shift through the day Saturday with another high pressure building over the region for Sunday. Additionally will see periodic shower and thunderstorm chances across the lake for the end of the week through the weekend. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee