571
FXUS62 KMHX 092038
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
338 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front has moved offshore with dry air moving in behind it.
High pressure rebuilds offshore this weekend, with a cold front
moving through the area on Monday. A second ridge of high
pressure then builds in from the north on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 1500 Saturday...Quiet night in store with lows in the
low-mid 40s inland and low-mid 50s for beaches. High cloud cover
will be overspreading the region as moisture gets funneled
between an upper level low approaching the Great Lakes and high
pressure to the S. At the SFC, high pressure centered to the N
pivots offshore NECONUS coast after sunset tonight, turning low
level winds more Eerly as this happens. Some stratocu pushes
onshore making it as far inland as the HWY17 corridor. This will
limit rad cooling, keeping temps from dropping into the 30s and
precluding any fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 1500 Saturday...High pressure will be centered off the
Eastern Seaboard Sunday morning and continue to push further
offshore as the day wears on. A weakening upper low lifts
across the Great Lakes with its attendant cold front approaching
from the northwest. Light onshore winds early veer through the
period to become more Serly by Sun evening. Cloudy conditions
persist through the day, increasing further to OVC skies late in
the afternoon as moisture ahead of the approaching front
increases, keeping MaxTs in check despite the increasing
thicknesses, Highs in low to mid 70s most. Iso showers are
expected offshore through the day with shower chances beginning
to ramp up over far reaches of inland zones around sunset as
the front nears the FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Weakening upper low lifts across the
Great Lakes with its attendant cold front beginning to near the
area. As the front approaches, it is becoming increasingly
likely that it will tap into some of the tropical moisture
associated with Tropical Storm Rafael which is located in the
Gulf of Mexico. This combined with the forcing from the
approaching front is forecast to allow for increasing precip
chances Sunday night with the highest chance for precip now on
Monday as the aforementioned front begins to track across ENC.
With increasing confidence on when the best chance for precip
will be, kept the SChc to Chc PoP`s in the forecast overnight
Sun into Mon morning, but then added some low end likely PoP`s
to the forecast Mon morning into Mon afternoon. Southerly flow
out ahead of this approaching front should also allow for some
instability to build into the region on Mon afternoon and have
added a SChc of thunder along the Coastal Plain. Warm temps are
forecast for Sun and Mon with highs expected in the low to mid
70s.

The front is forecast to push through the area Monday night
with high pressure building in from the north Tuesday and
Wednesday and an upper ridge building in from the west. Dry
weather with prevail with NE flow bringing a slight cool down
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another mid level
shortwave then begins to approach from the west on Thursday with
associated surface cold front forecast to track across ENC Thurs
into Thurs night. Latest guidance has shown a drier trend with
only the Canadian showing a wet forecast on Thursday with
GFS/ECWMF and their associated ensembles not showing much in the
way of precip with this second frontal passage. A third ridge
of high pressure then begins to build in from the west late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 1240 Saturday..All terminals VFR flight cats and should
remain that way through the period. High clouds will be present
through the day with some diurnal cu along with gusty winds
15-20kts out of the NE during peak heating. Tonight some low
stratocu builds overhead as the high to our north shifts
offshore. This could result in drops to MVFR CIGS for coastal
TAF sites (EWN, OAJ). Continue mention of lower cloud group but
not forecasting it as a CIG at this time. No fog is expected
through the TAF period with cool, dry air advecting in. Winds
turn more Serly through the day Sunday with VFR flight cats in
place.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...High pressure slides offshore Sunday
with pred VFR conditions expected. A cold front approaches on
Monday eventually tracking across ENC Mon night. This will bring
increasing precip chances Sunday night and Monday with sub- VFR
conditions possible. VFR conditions then return Tuesday and Wed
as high pressure builds in from the north and west.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday Night/...
As of 1530 Saturday...Post frontal NE`rly wind surge has crept
through area waters leading to SCA conditions across most zones
this morning. Northeasterly winds are 15-25kt gusting up to
30kts but by sunset today frequent gusts should fall below 25
kts. Seas have built to 4-7 ft and will linger through the day
before starting to decrease this evening into tonight.

The next SCA to expire will be for Pamlico Sound, currently
scheduled to expire at 2200edt, but this will most likely be
able to be dropped earlier. The remaining SCAs are for coastal
waters and will drop off through the overnight with only central
waters remaining under SCA through the morning due to 6ft seas
outside of 15NM.

Winds veer to become Eerly 10-15kt in the early morning hours.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...High pressure ridge will be centered
off the East Coast Sun morning and push further offshore as the
day wears on with Ely winds around 10-15kt veering to the SE
and S throughout the day. Gradients tighten Sunday night and
Monday ahead of the next cold front with SW winds at 10-20 kt
Sun night into Monday and seas around 3-5 ft. The front pushes
across the area Monday night with winds becoming Nly by Tuesday
morning and will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt
late Tuesday and into Wed. In response to the higher N`rly
winds, seas will also build Tue night into Wed to 4 to 6 ft once
again bringing SCA conditions back to our waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1530 Saturday...

 - Elevated fire concerns rest of today.

A noticeably drier airmass (RHs in the 30s and 40s percent)
has moved into ENC today, and will overlap with breezy
northeast winds (10-15 mph, gusts to 20+ mph) during peak
heating in the afternoon. At face value, this appears supportive
of elevated fire concerns. Of note, the lack of a widespread,
killing freeze plus the recent stretch of warm weather, has
allowed fine fuels to remain relatively green for the time of
year. This should help offset the fire danger despite the
breezy and dry conditions expected. So, in collaboration with
the Forest Service, have opted to remain headline free.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RM/RCF
AVIATION...RM/CEB/RCF
MARINE...RM/CEB/RCF
FIRE WEATHER...MHX