484
FXUS62 KMHX 311840
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
240 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area tonight and push through
the Friday and Friday night. High pressure will build in from
the north through the weekend with the front stalled offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thu...

Key Messages

 - Increased risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain, minor
   flooding, and gusty winds through tonight

Increasing southerly flow and moisture advection will lead to a
deepening layer of moisture throughout the column today, with
PWATs currently analyzed at 2.3-2.6". Meanwhile, an upper level
shortwave moving east across the Mid-Atlantic, which will help
induce weak cyclogenesis over central/eastern Virginia, with a
cold front over the Mid-Atlantic grad pushing southward. The
upper level wave and increased low-level forcing along the cold
front, as well as the diurnal seabreeze, will be favorably timed
with the increased moisture and instability across the area,
which should be supportive of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage remains isolated early this afternoon,
but expect coverage to blossom over the next few hours. The
combination of high PWATs, moderate instability (MLCAPE of
1500-3000 J/kg), and increased forcing should support intense
rainfall rates and the potential for localized hydro concerns.
Generally expect rainfall amounts 1-3" with potential for
locally higher amts, which could lead to localized flash
flooding.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
this evening as an upper level wave interacts with a very moist
and moderately unstable airmass. As large scale forcing
increases, and as deep layer shear inc to 15-20kt, it`s possible
that a larger cluster, or two, of thunderstorms may develop,
especially east of HWY 17. This activity will then shift
offshore later tonight. Ensemble and machine learning guidance
show a decent signal for 40- 60 mph winds if any cluster of
thunderstorms manages to develop. While the overall severe
thunderstorm risk appears LOW tonight, the risk of strong to
marginally severe wind gusts appears possible. Heavy rain and
flooding will continue to be a risk as well thanks to the high
PWAT airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Thu...

Key Messages:

- Localized flooding possible, with best chances during the
  afternoon and evening, mainly for areas south of Hwy 70.

Broad troughing aloft will extend an area of low pressure
across the eastern US, while at the surface, a potent cold
front will gradually sink southward across ENC through the day.
Main concern will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall
with strong forcing and impressive PWATS on the order of
2.25-2.75". Rainfall amts 1-3" expected with potential for
locally higher amounts, which could lead to localized flooding.
Best chances for that will be for areas south of Hwy 70.

Clouds and precip will keep things cooler than past several
days, despite the higher dewpoints. Moderate heat risk will
continue with some spots across the southern forecast area
possibly flirting with 105 deg.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0300 Thursday...

Key Messages:

 - Cold front will bring heavy rain and relief from the heat

 - Flooding concerns continue through Friday night

Broad troughing aloft will extend an area of lower pressure
across the eastern US late week. At the surface, a potent cold
front will work its way across the Appalachians with pre-frontal
troughing developing across the Carolinas. The cold front will
take its sweet time crossing the FA on Friday, likely not moving
offshore until Saturday morning. Once offshore, the front will
stall through the weekend and support the development of a
series of lows that will move northeasterly away from our coast.
As of yesterday, guidance has this stalled boundary slowly
lifting Nward as a warm front on Monday and Tuesday, but it
looks like now that the boundary will continue to inch slowly
Sward into next week with stout High pressure continuing to
build from N.

This FROPA will cause an air mass change, bringing an end to
the oppressive heat and humidity that has plagued ENC for the
past week. WPC currently has all of ENC outlined in marginal
(level 1/4) and slight (level 2/4) risks for flash flooding
Friday-Saturday. The coast and areas along and south of Highway
264 are expected to see the most precip through Tuesday (2-4")
with lower amounts to the north (1-2"). Locally higher amounts
are possible wherever stronger and/or training cells occur.

Friday`s FROPA will be the swan song for this oppressive heat
and humidity with highs on Saturday and Sunday staying in the
low- to mid-80s and dewpoints ranging from the upper-60s to
low-70s. Compared to this past weekend, some places across the
coastal plain will see a nearly 20 degree high temperature
difference. Temps will gradually rebound at the start of next
week (mid- to upper-80s).

An extended period of NE SFC winds is possible through the
entirety of the week, i.e. euro is showing 10+ days of NEerly
flow while some guidance has just delayed the lifting back of
the boundary as a warm front. For now, have gone with the
boundary staying S through most of the week keeping coolish
conditions in place with precip chances tied to diurnal curve
and any showers advected onshore by developing lows traveling
NEward away from the FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 240 PM Thu...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals. Isolated showers and storms early this afternoon,
though expect coverage to blossom this afternoon and evening,
likely tapering off from west to east late tonight then
increasing again Fri afternoon. Brief periods of sub-VFR
possible with convection. Increased threat for low stratus early
Friday morning, with potential for IFR, esp at PGV and ISO.
Sub-VFR cigs may linger through much of Fri as front grad sinks
southward through the forecast area and NNE flow develops behind
it. Any storms bring the potential for gusty winds, heavy rain
and freq lightning.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...

There will be several chances for sub-VFR CIGs and VIS through
the long term, especially through the weekend when a cold front
will bring heavy rainfall to the area. Not a slam dunk for early
morning stratus and/or fog this weekend as winds could stay up
enough to mix things out, but can`t completely count out.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 240 PM Thu...Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas
2-3 ft. Light to moderate SW flow will continue over the waters
tonight, with seas grad building to 2-4 ft. A cold front will
grad sink southward through the waters Friday, with winds
becoming northerly 10-15 kt behind it.

Sct to numerous showers and tstms expected through Friday,
bringing the threat for gusty winds, frequent lightning and
heavy rain.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...

# --- Issued SCAs for all coastal waters and sounds starting
Friday night behind the cold front. Have held off on issuing for
inland rivers at this point, but SCAs may be needed here as
well. --- #

A strong cold front will cross the waters late Friday, which
will increase winds to 15-20 kt as they veer to the north. A
northeasterly surge behind the front will increase winds to
20-30 kt on Saturday. Gales are possible for the coastal waters
north of Cape Hatteras, the northern Pamlico Sound, and the
northern rivers and sounds. On Sunday, northeasterly winds will
gradually decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

Seas will build to 2-4 ft by early Friday. Prolonged
northeasterly fetch will build seas from north to south Friday
night into Sunday with peak heights expected Sunday afternoon.
5-10 ft seas are possible across the central waters with 4-7 ft
seas across the northern and southern waters.

Highest PoPs will be Friday night-Saturday with heavy rain,
gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 10 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 11 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB