594
FXUS66 KMFR 060520
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1020 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...

Drier east flow helped clear out most of the low level clouds
this afternoon and we`ll see these drier winds persist into the
overnight hours. High pressure in the Pacific will build into the
Northwest by Monday resulting in temperatures trending even
warmer. Medford will revisit the 80 degree mark with a high of 83
with Brookings in the lower 80`s due to the easterly flow. These
temperatures are not unusual for early October as our average
high at the airport is around the upper 70`s, so just 5 degrees
warmer than usual for this time of year.

Tuesday should be more of the same with 80 degrees becoming more
widespread. However, wind flow begins to switch up towards the end
of Tuesday, so the coast should see some cooler temperatures due
to onshore flow.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a weakening cold front
will push through the forecast area. This will result in cooler
temperatures and a 15% chance of precipitation along our northern
portion of coastline near North Bend and Florence. Some locations
will see temperatures trend 10 degrees lower.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, models have an upper level low
just off the Oregon coast. Data suggests that there is a low 10 to
20% chance of precipitation Wednesday night in our region,
although ensemble members really seem to struggle where to place
it or if to place it at all.

Eventually this low will move onshore and the chances of rain will
increase towards the end of the week and next weekend. However,
there are many ensemble members that keep us pretty dry once this
low pushes farther eastwards, so confidence in the forecast
beyond Thursday is pretty low. The probability of precipitation
peaks at about 80% Saturday evening along the coast, so that area
has the best chance of rain this weekend.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions look to continue across
northern California and southern Oregon through the TAF period.
Diurnal breezes may increase over elevated terrain, but look to
remain at normal levels for area terminals. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Sunday, October 5, 2025...A thermal
trough will maintain gusty north winds into Monday, with the highest
winds and seas expected south of Cape Blanco, and all other areas
experiencing conditions hazardous to small craft. The thermal trough
weakens Monday with winds and seas subsiding from east to west. A
brief period of calmer conditions is expected Monday night into
Tuesday much of the waters, but steep seas are expected to persist
beyond 20 nm from shore through early Tuesday morning.

North winds and steep seas likely return late Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday before winds turn southerly Wednesday night into Thursday.
Southerly winds will persist through the latter half of the week as
an upper level system lingers offshore, then moves inland over the
weekend. Seas transition to swell dominated for the latter half of
the week, but are currently expected to remain below 10 ft. /BR-y

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, October 5, 2025...A
thermal trough along the coast has induced offshore (east to
northeast) flow that will persist into Tuesday morning. Gusts of 20
to 30 mph are already being observed in portions of the Rogue River
and Siskiyou National Forests and we expect things to dry out across
the landscape today through Tuesday with afternoon humidity
bottoming out in the in the 15-25% range. East winds are expected to
peak tonight over the upper slopes/ridges with gusts of 25-35 mph
common, and the potential for up to 40 mph in the most exposed areas
of the Cascades. Humidity recoveries will trend lower for Monday and
(lowest) Tuesday mornings, largely remaining in the moderate range,
but could be locally poor Tuesday morning. Monday night into
Tuesday, however, east to northeast winds will be weaker, so there
is less concern for critical conditions Monday night into Tuesday.
Given that fuels have moderated substantially due to recent wet and
cool weather, and many locations have lowered the fire danger to
moderate or better, we`ll maintain a headline in the Fire Weather
Planning forecast for this easterly flow event.

Weak onshore flow returns later on Tuesday and daytime humidities
will trend somewhat higher, and recoveries Tuesday night will be
improved. Gusty south to southwest winds return to the region
starting Wednesday as an upper level system moves southward just
offshore, but daytime humidities will still be trending higher.
There`s uncertainty on how far offshore this system traverses, but
there could be some light rain along the coast as early as Thursday.
While uncertainty in the details remains, confidence is increasing
for a return to cooler and wetter weather late in the week and into
the weekend. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$