098
FXUS66 KMFR 260536
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
936 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2026

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.


&&


.AVIATION...26/06Z TAFs...Overnight, expect areas of LIFR to develop
in valley fog (beginning around 06-09z) in the Umpqua Valley,
including Roseburg, and in the Grants Pass area. These conditions
will persist Monday morning then improve to VFR early Monday
afternoon.  Isolated MVFR is possible along the coast tonight and
Monday morning, with a low chance 15% at North Bend. Elsewhere,
expect VFR through the TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Sunday, January 25, 2026...Southerly
winds will gradually increase Monday but winds and seas are expected
to remain below advisory levels. Ahead of front, south winds will
increase further Monday night and Tuesday. Conditions will peak
on Tuesday as the front moves through the waters with winds near
or at gale strength and very steep hazardous seas likely. Models
have trended stronger with the winds and high resolution models
favor winds around 30 to 40 kt over the waters, with strongest
winds beyond 5 nm from shore. We are continuing to monitor this
period and have issued a hazardous seas watch for the waters.
Winds lower Tuesday night. Then, longer period west swell is
expected to build into the waters late Wednesday into Thursday,
peaking at around 13 to 17 ft at 15 seconds.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 134 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...

Key Points:

* Temperatures closer to normal starting today

* Precipitation chances west of the Cascades late Tues. thru Sat.
    - Total amounts generally <0.10" for interior areas
    - Total amounts around 0.50"-1.00" along/near the coast

Further Details:

Temperatures will start to rebound today and through next week with
conditions closer to normal. High clouds will likely increase today
and continue into next week as well. These high clouds may limit our
fog chances for areas that have seen fog each morning across the
Umpqua Basin, lower Rogue Valley, and some other westside valleys.

Middle of next week is still looking like our next chance for
precipitation, albeit very light amounts over the course of several
days. Much of the westside has a very low probability (10%-25%) of
reaching 0.10" in any 6hr timeframe. The coast and areas near the
coast have around 25%-50% for 0.10"/6hrs. Areas along/near the coast
in central to southern Curry County likely to see the higher
rainfall total amounts. Again these amounts are generally light over
the course of several days, but totals across Curry County could end
up being around 0.50"-1.00" over several days. That said, these
precipitation chances/amounts are nothing to write home about, but
certainly a welcome after a dry period across the region. This
pattern is very progressive, and chances are not looking good for
eastside areas to see much--if any--precipitation through this
stretch.

What we need to happen is have the long wave trough which is
consuming much of central and eastern CONUS to break down. This
doesn`t look possible anytime soon. Cluster analysis of 500mb
indicates this pattern holding on through Feb 3rd which
essentially favors a ridge over the PacNW. Guidance from the
Climate Prediction Center (as of today) is indicating in their
8-14 day outlook (Feb 2-8) a very strong signal for well above
normal temperatures in addition to a signal for below normal
precipitation. This completely aligns with the cluster analysis,
and may be a telling sign for early parts of February being above
normal for temperatures and overall dry.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Watch from Tuesday morning
     through Tuesday evening for PZZ350-356.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 AM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for PZZ370-376.

&&

$$