942
FXUS66 KMFR 062123
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
223 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026

.DISCUSSION...

A stubborn marine layer has kept temperatures a bit cooler than
anticipated in the Umpqua Valley and Roseburg this afternoon. Some
cumulus buildups have developed across the forecast area this
afternoon, although we`re not anticipating showers or
thunderstorms today.

A marine layer will likely develop again tonight and linger in the
Umpqua Valley and coast again. This could keep temperatures
a few degrees cooler than what is currently in the forecast
around Roseburg and portions of the coast. We should also see some
more mist and fog along the coast as the boundary layer
compresses under this upper level ridge.

Temperatures remain warm on Thursday with highs 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for early May. Although we`re not in fire season yet,
the winds and humidities will create some elevated fire weather
conditions east of the Cascades. Winds will be gusting close to 30
mph with humidities in the lower teens. We`ll see those conditions
change into Friday as a short wave approaches the Oregon
coastline. Temperatures will cool a few degrees, although remain
above normal for this time of year.

Once this wave passes, we`ll see temperatures push 10 to 15
degrees higher for the remainder of the weekend and continue into
next week. It looks like a thermal trough will develop during
Monday and aid us pushing temperatures higher. We`re currently
forecasting to tie the high temperature record at KMHS of 88
degrees on May 11. No other records are at risk, although we`ll
remain well above normal, just not smashing through records
through the remainder of the forecast through mid week.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...Marine stratus is bringing IFR/MVFR
conditions to the coastal locations and into the Umpqua Basin. The
marine layer will gradually peel back to the immediate coast this
afternoon, so conditions should improve to VFR in the Umpqua Basin
but MVFR conditions will likely persist through the TAF period for
coastal sites. Expect marine stratus to return to the Umpqua Basin
again, bringing another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings tonight.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with
typical increases in afternoon/evening winds. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026...Sub-advisory
conditions are expected through Saturday. There could be a brief
period of near advisory level winds tonight into early Thursday
morning just south of Port Orford between 5 and 30nm from shore.
Otherwise, north winds prevail through Thursday, switching to
southerly as a weak front passes through the region. West-northwest
swell dominated seas at or below 6 feet will also persist through
early Saturday. A thermal trough develops over the weekend, bringing
increasing north winds and resultant steep to very steep seas into
early next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$