958
FXUS62 KMFL 010810
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
410 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 402 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again
   today through the early evening hours. The stronger
   thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning.

 - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow
   moving storms creates the potential for localized flooding
   especially over the urban and poor drainage areas.

 - High temperatures will continue to peak in the low to mid 90s
   each afternoon through most of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Models show a persistent synoptic pattern across the region for the
short term with strong mid-lvl high pressure dominating the SE
CONUS, while a departing TUTT migrates further NNE of SoFlo.
Meanwhile, the sfc ridge axis of the W-Atl high remains just north
of the state. This synoptic setup will continue to keep the area
under E/SE flow and continuing moisture advection across SoFlo.

Expect the moist tropical air mass to remain in place, with deep-
layered moisture keeping PWATs above 2 inches, along with
CAPE/MUCAPE values in the 2-3K J/Kg range. While there was no
sounding at MFL due to active weather around 00Z, the TBW sounding
and model data showed that 500 mb temps remain a little warmer than
previous days, around -5.6 to -5.8 C. But the influence of the TUTT
may still be enough to provide enhanced lifting for deeper updrafts
this afternoon, with potential for a few strong or even severe
cells.

NBM and ensembles remain in fair agreement about keeping high-end
POPs in place each day, with max values in the 70-80% range (and up
to 90% on Wednesday for areas south of I-75). Expect the best
chances for showers and storms during the afternoon/early evening
hours. Main hazards will be frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts,
and heavy rain.

The wind vertical profile remains weak (0-6km <=10kt), which will
favor slow or stationary-at-times downpours, with localized flooding
a key concern (especially over urban areas). The Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps SoFlo under a Marginal
Risk (at least 5% chance) today.

High temperatures are expected to again hit the low-mid 90s, along
with peak heat index values in the 105-110F range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

While the overall forecast scenario for the long term hasn`t changes
significantly, the only caveat will be the arrival of the remnants
of Dolly in the form of a broad area of low pressure and enhanced
deep tropical moisture. NBM and long-range guidance has responded by
pushing max POPs into the 80-90% range across much of SoFlo each day
through the weekend. Dew points, PWATs and rainfall estimates all
remain above or well above seasonal normals through the long
term, supporting the forecast philosophy of having a very active,
wet weather pattern.

Meanwhile, the W Atl sfc ridge will slowly push southward and closer
to the area. This will shift overall flow more southerly,
enhancing even more the moisture advection. In general, expect
scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon/early
evening. Best chances for strong convection will again happen with
the onset of the East coast sea breeze, first along the Atlantic
metro areas early in the afternoon, then pushing inland during the
late afternoon hours. Hazards will include gusty winds, heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning.

Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably hot each day, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows should remain
in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the
interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR prevail through around 15Z, then another round of showers and
thunderstorms may bring periods of MVFR/IFR to the terminals this
afternoon. Winds will be mainly out of the ESE for all Atlantic
terminals, while APF should experience westerly flow with Gulf
breezes after 16Z. Winds become L/V after 00-02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

A gentle to moderate east southeasterly breeze will continue across
most of the local waters through the rest of the week. The exception
to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become more
south southwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the local waters each day. Gusty and erratic winds, along with brief
periods of rough seas, will be possible in and around
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  80  91  81 /  60  30  60  30
West Kendall     90  78  91  79 /  60  30  70  20
Opa-Locka        92  78  92  79 /  60  30  70  30
Homestead        91  78  91  79 /  60  30  60  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  90  81 /  60  40  60  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  91  81 /  70  40  70  30
Pembroke Pines   91  79  91  80 /  60  30  60  30
West Palm Beach  91  79  91  79 /  70  50  70  40
Boca Raton       90  80  90  81 /  60  40  70  40
Naples           90  76  90  77 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17