513
FXUS62 KMFL 311712
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
112 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

A hot start to this Thursday with temperatures already reaching
the lower to mid 90s and heat index values following into the
triple digits. A short-fused Heat Advisory is now in effect for
most of South Florida (except coastal Collier and mainland Monroe
where the Gulf sea breeze is now advancing inland) through 7 PM.
Guidance has struggled to capture the warming trend and was
several degrees cooler at the start of diurnal warm-up this
morning which necessitated a quick grid update to trend towards
the warmer side of the guidance envelope. Wind flow remains light
which should also allow the heat index to quickly climb until the
sea breeze and convection gets going later this afternoon into the
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Upper level ridging remains in place across Florida today. As we
progress into Friday, surface high pressure over the northern plains
will build into the Great Lakes region and a trough begins to dig
into the eastern US. This will help push a frontal boundary that is
currently draped from the central plains over to New England
southward into the SE US. Our sensible weather today and Friday will
be fairly similar to what we`ve seen for much of the week with a
light SE flow coming in off the Atlantic. Overnight and early
morning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will give way
to sea-breeze driven storms during the afternoon and early evening
each day, with the highest PoPs favoring inland areas and SW FL.

Temps will continue to be slightly above normal with lower 90s
across the east coast metro and along the Gulf coast, to mid and
upper 90s over interior portions of South FL. Much has been the case
this week, max heat indices will approach advisory criteria, but
HREF probs for exceeding criteria remain below 10%, so headlines are
not expected. Low temps tonight will range from the middle 70s over
interior South FL to around 80 close to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

This weekend the frontal boundary over the SE US will settle over
approx northern FL before stalling through early next week. This
will result in increased mid and upper level moisture across South
FL. In addition, several weak upper level impulses will traverse
South FL early to mid week. All of this will combine to result in an
increase of coverage of convection each day, although the highest
PoPs each day will still favor inland areas and SW FL with the low
level flow remaining out of the E/SE through at least the middle of
next week.

Temps during the extended period will remain slightly above normal
with highs each day generally in the lower 90s across the east coast
metro, to mid and upper 90s across inland areas and SW FL. Low temps
will be in the middle 70s over inland areas and around 80 closer to
the coasts. Max heat indices will continue to approach advisory
criteria of 105-110 each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Generally VFR though some showers and storms could develop as the
sea breezes advance inland this afternoon which could bring brief
periods of sub-VFR to impacted terminals. Convective focus should
generally remain inland of the terminals before diminishing
through the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend, with
west to southwesterly winds over the Gulf waters developing each
afternoon. Seas generally a foot or less in both the Atlantic and
Gulf waters. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, which
may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  20
West Kendall     77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
Opa-Locka        80  94  79  94 /  10  20  10  20
Homestead        79  91  78  92 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  79  92 /  10  20  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  20
Pembroke Pines   82  96  81  96 /  10  20  10  20
West Palm Beach  78  94  79  93 /  10  20  10  30
Boca Raton       79  94  79  94 /  10  20  10  30
Naples           80  93  79  93 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>068-
     070>074-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Rizzuto