473
FXUS64 KMEG 311704
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

- One more day of oppressive heat this afternoon with heat
  indices at or above 105 degrees. Some areas will again exceed
  110 degrees.

- Welcome relief from the extreme heat will arrive tomorrow and
  continue through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the
  80s to lower 90s with afternoon heat indices generally at or
  below 95 degrees.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Friday before
  lowering this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

One more hot afternoon. A late July cold front moving through the
Midsouth today will result in the first below normal temperatures
we have seen in weeks as we move into August. High temperatures
this afternoon will be in the low to middle 90s with heat indices
in the triple digits. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
through 8 pm. High temperatures Friday will be about 10 degrees
cooler than today, generally in the middle to upper 80s. A drier
airmass will help to curb heat indices substantially. Most of the
Midsouth should enjoy heat indices below 95 degrees for the first
time since mid-July.

The rare mid-Summer cold front will push into south Mississippi
and south Alabama this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will be
isolated in nature this afternoon across the Midsouth, becoming
primarily confined to north Mississippi Friday. A strong storm is
possible this afternoon in east Arkansas and in the delta area of
northwest Mississippi.

Weak northwest flow will set up across the middle Mississippi
River Valley over the weekend. Mainly dry conditions will continue
along with seasonably mild temperatures. A trough will shift out
of the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley early next week
resulting in diurnally enhanced (20-30%) rain and thunderstorm
chances Monday and Tuesday.

A thermal ridge will strengthen over the Desert Southwest US
midweek and slowly edge closer to the Midsouth during the later
half of the work week. As a result, temperatures should trend a
degree or two warmer each day. Expect highs back in the lower 90s
by Thursday. However, return flow never really gets set up over
the Southeastern US. As such, humidity should remain a bit more
tolerable than we have experienced recently and heat indices are
not expected to reach the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase this
afternoon as a slow moving cold front crosses the airspace.
Thunderstorm coverage will be isolated in nature, so went with
PROB30 groups at all sites through 00Z. A few stray showers may
linger into the overnight hours, but confidence remains too low to
mention in this TAF issuance. As the aforementioned front stalls
near TUP, MVFR CIGs will develop by sunrise.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

No fire weather concerns through the period as minimum relative
humidity values remain above roughly 50%. A cold front will pass
this evening into Friday morning, bringing slightly higher 20 ft
winds of around 10 - 15 knots. Heat indices will remain this
afternoon, cooling into the low 90s and upper 80s Friday.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ANS