434
FXUS64 KMEG 060413
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1113 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1113 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- An active weather pattern will continue through Saturday. The
  primary concerns will be damaging winds, large hail, and heavy
  rainfall.

- Daily rounds of rain continue into next week.

- Temperatures will generally remain near normal this weekend
  through next week with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in
  the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue as of 815 PM, mainly
from Memphis south and west. Coverage is sparse and the general
intensity has been on a downward trend for several hours. With the
loss of diurnal heating, this activity will continue to slowly
dissipate. Several runs of the HRRR this evening have indicated
the potential for isolated showers overnight north of I-40, but
confidence is low given the increasing convective inhibition and
generally weak forcing.

The MCS moving out of the Southern Plains overnight will weaken as
it crosses central and western AR, likely falling apart before
reaching the MS River. However, an unstable, uncapped environment
will be in place across the Mid-South on Friday and the resultant
outflow boundary should spawn additional thunderstorms by late
morning into the afternoon hours. Shear/instability are both
adequate to support a low-end threat for severe weather.
Precipitable water is forecast to top out near 2" Friday afternoon
and the moist sounding with a melting level near 14 kft suggest
that any slower- moving or training convective clusters could
produce localized heavy rainfall given the potential high rainfall
rates.

MJ

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A stormy, summertime pattern is underway across the Mid-South as a
pesky upper level ridge remains centered over Texas. Over the next
several days, multiple shortwave disturbances will rotate around
the outer periphery of this ridge, bringing increased chances for
severe thunderstorms.

As of 230 PM, radar imagery depicts spotty thunderstorm
development over the Mid-South. This activity is expected to
increase in coverage and intensity over the next few hours,
interacting with increasing instability and bulk shear around 30
kts. Multicell clusters will continue into the evening hours, with
a strong to severe thunderstorm or two occurring before sunset.
Lack luster lapse rates will hamper storm intensity, leading to a
primary threat of damaging winds.

Further west over Oklahoma, a MCS will push eastward overnight.
This system is not expected to die off once it reaches the Mid-
South, mainly due to the presence of a weak 700 mb jet. Instead,
expect this cluster of storms to continue across the area through
the day, reinvigorating in the afternoon. A Slight Risk for severe
storms is in place for the entire Mid-South to account for this
system and potential isolated storm development in the afternoon.
The 12Z HREF depicts lower-end lapse rates tomorrow, hampering
overall storm strength. The primary threats will be damaging
winds and large hail.

Saturday`s forecast will be a rinse and repeat of Friday as yet
another shortwave traverses the outer edge of the aforementioned
ridge. A morning MCV is one again probable with afternoon and
evening storms posing a damaging wind and large hail threat. There
remains uncertainty in Saturday`s forecast due to the potential
for morning storms to contaminate the environment. However, there
is enough confidence in severe development to once again include
the Mid-South in a Slight Risk.

A weak cold front will enter the region on Sunday. However, any
relief from the heat and humidity will be short-lived as
southerly winds return Monday afternoon. For now, we will remain
in a pesky pattern filled with daily rounds of rainfall.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Generally benign weather will prevail overnight, despite the low
chance for isolated showers overnight. The multiple complexes of
storms moving across the Southern Plains are expected to weaken as
they move through AR and will likely dissipate before reaching the
Mid-South. However, the outflow boundary from this activity may
result in scattered diurnal convection with a secondary band of
storms possible along a weak surface boundary that will move into
the area in the late afternoon and evening. It is likely that
storms will be in the CWA in the afternoon and early evening, but
confidence is too low to include anything more than PROB30 for
TSRA at this point.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...MJ