181
FXUS64 KMEG 311121
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
621 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Hot and humid weather is expected this week with highs in the
  mid to upper 90s and oppressive heat indices above the 105
  degree mark.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for east Arkansas, the Missouri
  Bootheel, northwest Mississippi, and portions of West Tennessee
  today. Additional heat headlines are expected through most of
  the week.

- There is a low chance of isolated showers by the end of the week
  into next weekend. Otherwise, a prolonged dry spell is forecast
  across the Mid-South.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A 595 dam ridge is centered over the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley, with shortwave energy bypassing the region
well to the north. Surface analysis shows a broad 1020 mb high
pressure system across the eastern CONUS. This high will remain
stationary through the week, maintaining a persistent return flow
that will gradually transport higher moisture into the Mid-South.

Persistent ridging will drive a steady increase in daily
temperatures and humidity. Areas along and west of the
Mississippi River have a medium-to-high chance of reaching 100F
daily, with heat indices ranging from 103F to 110F across the
region. Oppressive heat will initially target western areas before
expanding across the entire Mid-South by midweek. As such, a Heat
Advisory is in effect on Monday and there is high confidence that
daily heat headlines will be required through Friday.

Guidance suggests easterly waves may undercut the ridge late this
week, potentially triggering isolated thunderstorms; however,
meaningful heat relief is unlikely. Predominantly hot and dry
conditions will persist, elevating the risk for rapid-onset
drought. A medium signal remains for a backdoor cold front late
this weekend, which could eventually moderate the heat and
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions across all terminals. High
pressure to the east will result in  light south winds, generally
6kts or less today and tomorrow. Overnight, wind speeds will
diminish to 3kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A persistent upper level ridge of high pressure will keep high
heat and increasing humidity over the Mid-South this week. Air
temperatures will approach upper 90s and 100 degree mark each
day, however, minimum relative humidity values are expected to
remain above 35 percent all week long. 20-foot winds are expected
to remain less than 10 mph remaining below critical fire weather
thresholds. However, 10 and 100 hour fuels will continue to dry
and cure. This prolonged and hot and dry period with no
appreciable rainfall may trigger elevated fire weather danger
this
week. The threat of fog each morning will remain low and
isolated, confined mainly to nearby localized river basins.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TNZ001>004-019-020-048>051-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS