219
ACUS11 KWNS 061043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061042
LAZ000-MSZ000-061215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061042Z - 061215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few rotating showers/thunderstorms may persist for a few
more hours.

DISCUSSION...Moderate instability has pushed inland across southeast
Louisiana and vicinity with tropical mid 70s dewpoints present. In
addition, the low-level jet has strengthened to around 35 knots per
KHDC VWP. This has resulted in a few showers and occasional
thunderstorm development near the frontal zone along the Gulf Coast.
RAP forecast soundings show very weak deep layer/effective shear,
but some supercell characteristics have been observed on radar over
the past hour with 2 observed TDSs. Therefore, the stronger shear
between the LCL/EL (35 knots) must be sufficient for some updraft
rotation. Transient rotating updrafts and clockwise turning winds in
the lowest km have been apparently sufficient for a few brief
tornadoes. In addition, the low-level jet is significantly stronger
than forecast by most guidance. This low-level jet has weakened
slightly over the past hour on the KHDC VWP and should continue to
slowly weaken through the morning. Given the already borderline
environment these showers/storms have developed within, expect this
modest reduction in the low-level jet to bring an end to the threat
by daybreak.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 10/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29669092 30359099 30789079 31179030 31038983 30528974
            30038971 29558979 29238995 29179034 29239067 29309078
            29669092

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH