922
FXUS64 KMAF 312323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Hot temperatures through the work week, with very low (less
  than 20%) chance of isolated showers/storms, mainly for the
  western higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Persistence rules.  WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge
centered over the Missouri/Arkansas border, dictating a rather
pedestrian forecast for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This
displacement to the east from 24 hours ago will result in locally
decreased thicknesses, shaving a degree or two off of yesterday`s
highs.  Isolated convection is still anticipated in the Davis
Mountains.

Tonight, minimums will be very similar to last night`s, ~ 10 F above
climatology, mainly due to a LLJ approaching 40 kts.

Tuesday, the upper ridge is forecast to continue developing east,
centering over the western half of West Virginia by 00Z Wednesday.
This will keep thicknesses/temperatures similar to this afternoon`s,
if not slightly cooler, around 8-10 F above normal.  W/the ridge
displaced farther east, isolated afternoon convection will again be
possible, mainly in the mountains.

Tuesday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package. A hot and
mostly dry weather pattern is in store throughout the rest of the
week. This is thanks to upper-level ridging over the region. Similar
high temperatures each day are forecast in the mid 90s to low 100s
for most locations. Spots along the river valleys are forecast to
range from 103F to 108F. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s can be
expected each night. Cannot rule out an isolated storm or two (<
20%) over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains every afternoon
through this weekend with continued upslope flow, though sinking
motion under the ridge will mainly hinder convective initiation.
By Sunday, guidance is in agreement with the upper-level ridge of
high pressure being centered across the Central Plains extending
into the Southern High Plains. As a result, easterly flow aloft
commences which may lower temperatures a few degrees from previous
days. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal, with
mostly dry conditions continuing into next week.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions and light winds continue this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  99  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 100  73 101 /   0  10   0  10
Dryden                   75  99  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  97  73  99 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           70  90  70  91 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                    71  97  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    63  91  63  91 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74  97  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10