008
FXUS64 KMAF 282320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
  Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas.

- Rain chances begin Wednesday afternoon, increasing area-wide
  through late Thursday night, and tapering off through Saturday
  afternoon.

- Warmer and drier conditions return Saturday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Current satellite imagery and 17Z 500mb RAP analysis shows
southwesterly flow aloft over the region associated with shortwave
troughing across the Rockies extending down to the Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is positioned across the Texas Panhandle
slowly moving southward. Ahead of this front, breezy
southwesterly/westerly winds and very warm conditions are expected
this afternoon as the dryline is placed well east of the area. A low-
level thermal ridge develops over the region thanks to enhanced
mixing with the dryline to the east. As a result, highs are expected
to climb into the upper 80s to upper 90s for most. Near-critical to
critical fire weather conditions are also in store across southeast
New Mexico, northern Permian Basin, and far west Texas given the
very warm temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy winds.

Tonight, the aforementioned cold front arrives in the region. This
will shift winds to the northeast and provide cooler temperatures
for some locations across the region. Areas north of I-10 are
forecast to see temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s, while
areas along and south of I-10 span in the 90s to low 100s. A surface
high pressure building into the Central Plains allows return flow by
the afternoon. Thursday night, return flow persists as the dryline
retreats back west while an upper-level storm system approaches Baja
California. Both of these features allows increased low and upper-
level moisture along with lift for showers to develop across the
region late this week. More on that in the long-term discussion!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Thursday, the LREF brings the upper trough onshore in SoCal/Baja del
Norte, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest
flow aloft.  At the surface, northeasterly flow will have the
dryline backed up against the higher terrain, with dewpoints in the
60s as far west as western Brewster County.  This increased moisture
will narrow diurnal temperature ranges, and with overcast skies and
CAA continuing to decrease thicknesses, highs Thursday afternoon
should come in ~ 9-10 F cooler than Wednesday`s. Shortwaves moving
up from the southwest will open a window for showers along/east of
the dryline, and chances will only increase throughout the day as
large-scale ascent from the approaching trough increases.  Lower
temperatures will keep instability lower than it otherwise would be,
so this looks more like showers instead of thunder.

Thursday night, the trough moves east into New Mexico, with
convection increasing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico,
especially northeast as another shot of cold air backdoors the area.
Forecast soundings increase pwats considerably, w/the NAM increasing
to 1.27" at KMAF late Thursday night, 0.06" over the max percentile.
The daily record is 1.14", so the potential for heavy rainfall will
certainly be there.

Friday, the trough moves through West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, with excellent chances of rain continuing, especially north.
This should be the coldest day this forecast as highs struggle to
reach ~ 20-25 F below normal.

Showers taper off Friday night/Saturday as upper-level ridging
begins re-establishing itself in the wake of the exiting trough,
with a gradual warmup into next week.  By Tuesday afternoon, highs
should be back up to 2-4 F above normal.  Grids stay dry after
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR in place through tonight. MVFR CIGs fill in from the east, but
not confident to include with this issuance for HOB/MAF. Cold
front moves through between 6-9z this evening and shifts winds to
the north and northeast. Gusts return Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Fire weather concerns end tonight with the arrival of the first of a
series of cold fronts, set to fropa KMAF around 06Z.  While warm
temperatures, and consequently lower/critical relative humidity, is
anticipated over the higher terrain west of the front Wednesday, the
only area with 20-ft winds of concern will be the Guadalupe
Mountains/southern Sacramento Foothills, and may be better suited
for a RFD. Increased 20-ft winds will be a little more widespread
over the higher terrain Thursday, but by then, post-frontal relative
humidity will be well-above critical territory.

Cooler temperatures and potential rainfall will negate any fire
weather concerns Friday into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  79  57  69 /   0   0  20  70
Carlsbad                 63  90  63  78 /   0   0  10  50
Dryden                   73  96  67  82 /  10  10  20  50
Fort Stockton            68  93  65  81 /   0  10  20  60
Guadalupe Pass           61  81  60  71 /   0   0  10  40
Hobbs                    58  84  55  73 /   0   0  10  60
Marfa                    57  88  55  81 /   0  10  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     62  84  59  71 /   0   0  10  60
Odessa                   63  84  60  72 /   0   0  10  60
Wink                     63  90  62  77 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Martin-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93