733
FXUS64 KMAF 222323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
523 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Significant winter weather event with freezing rain, sleet, and snow
  likely Friday evening through Sunday morning for regions north
  of the Rio Grande basin. Highest ice accumulations most probable
  in the southeast Permian Basin.

- Temperatures remain below average with dangerous cold late
  weekend into early next week after the winter weather event
  this weekend comes to an end.

- Slow warming trend with highs staying below 60F northeast of
  Permian Basin and lows remaining below freezing for much of the
  region north and northeast of Rio Grande basin through the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Ah....one more pleasant day before everything goes north. WV
imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough off the coast of
SoCal/Baja del Norte, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under zonal flow aloft. Despite plenty of high cloud overhead
streaming off the trough, highs should top out ~ 6-8 F above
climatology. Unfortunately, this looks to be the warmest day this
forecast.

12Z KMAF RAOB came in very dry, w/a PWAT of just 0.18". However,
westerly flow aloft, and return flow overnight, is forecast to
moisten up the column top-to-bottom, increasing PWATs to 0.96" by
21Z Friday. The 100th percentile is 0.86", and the record for
01/23 00Z is only 0.70". The biggest bust for winter wx in these
parts is most always a lack of moisture, so this weekend could be
a significant winter event.

Overnight, a chance of rain showers will develop out west as
minor short waves calve off the trough and move up through the
area. Increased moisture, as well as abundant cloud cover, will
retard radiational cooling, keeping overnight minimums around 10 F
above normal.

Friday, the Arctic front arrives, with NAM buffer soundings
putting fropa at KMAF around 18Z. Temperatures will plunge, with
highs dropping to ~ 12-14 F below normal. By late afternoon,
forecast soundings suggest a wintry mix developing in the north,
with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible in the lower Trans
Pecos.

Temperatures continue heading north overnight. The column will be
saturated, so all the cooling will be from CAA alone, as this is
quite the cold AMS. Overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s
lowlands, putting temperatures in extreme cold territory. Lows
Saturday and Sunday night will be even colder, so we`ll extend the
Extreme Cold Watch through Monday morning. This will likely be
upgraded soon as details are better nailed down.

Regarding winter precip, a little of everything will be in the
mix, so we`ll upgrade the watch to a warning. Like most winter
events in these parts where a warm nose is present to one extent
or another, there remains a degree of uncertainty as to what
p-type will develop when and where. The main concern at the moment
continues to be FZRA, with possible storm total accumulations
east of the Pecos of 1/4" or more. If this pans out, and ice
begins accumulating, an upgrade to an Ice Storm Warning may be
warranted. For now, due to multiple p-types, we`ll stick to a
Winter Storm Warning.

The trough will move through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
early Sunday morning, with a secondary trough phasing with it by
around 12Z Sunday. Forecast soundings finally lose the warm nose,
with a brief transitions to snow late Sunday morning/early
afternoon before precipitation tapers off.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Drier with a slower warming trend than previously expected is the
story for the end of this weekend into next week. Lows Sunday
night under clearing skies, light and variable winds, and dew
point temperatures falling into the teens to lower 20s F southwest
of Permian Basin and into the single digits for most of the SE NM
plains into Permian Basin will enhance overnight cooling and
allow lows to fall to perhaps the coldest so far this winter. This
yields lows in the single digits F Pecos River valley region in
SE NM plains and most of Lea County into northern and eastern
Permian Basin, teens F rest of SE NM plains into central and
southern Permian Basin, mid to upper teens Culberson County into
foothills of Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau into Terrell
County, 20s F for much of Brewster and Presidio Counties, and near
freezing along Presidio Valley. Apparent temperatures by Monday
morning also fall to or below -5F for northern Lea County into
northern into southeast Permian Basin, to or below 10 F along
Pecos River into Valley into Stockton Plateau, and near 19F for
Marfa Plateau into central Presidio County. How low temperatures
end up will depend on amount of snow and ice that accumulates on
the ground and enhances radiational cooling, but we are monitoring
potential for an extension of the Extreme Cold Watch over
northern Lea County into northern and eastern Permian Basin, and
issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for much of the Pecos River
Valley, Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau, and western Permian
Basin. Regardless of low temperatures fall Monday morning, highs
in the NBM stay below 40 F north of southern Culberson County into
Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau, with highs in the 40s F south
of that line and northeast of southwest Presidio and Brewster
Counties - the latter being only places where highs are expected
to rise into the 50s F. While highs will be 10F to 15F warmer than
Sunday and winds will veer to southerly as weak ridging begins to
build in the mid to upper levels, do not expect a quick warm up -
especially for any regions where rain, then freezing rain, sleet
and then finally snow fall and result in a deeper and more
persistent zone of frozen topsoil delaying warming of the ground
and near surface air, even under mostly sunny skies. The slow
warmup in high temperatures where freezing precipitation
accumulates this weekend will mean lows Monday night remain below
freezing for most if not all of the area, except for the Rio
Grande basin and Presidio Valley where lows may not fall below
freezing. The slow warming trend continues next Tuesday, but only
ending up 5F warmer than Monday, translating to mid to upper 40s F
north of southern Culberson County into Marfa Plateau and
Stockton Plateau, 50s F northeast of southwest Presidio and
southern Brewster Counties, and lower to mid 60s F for southwest
Presidio and southern Brewster Counties. Regions with deepest
layer of frozen topsoil will continue to see the slowest warming.
Tuesday night still sees lows fall below freezing north of Rio
Grande basin, but begin to recover above freezing for the Rio
Grande basins. Next Wednesday, the warming pattern is showing
signals of slowing as deterministic and ensemble models show
troughing in the mid to upper air pattern again amplifying from
the Hudson Bay into the Central US and Southern Great Plains. This
results in highs only a few degrees warmer than Tuesday for
Wednesday, with highs still remaining below 50F for much of the
area northeast of the Pecos River, below 50 F north of Rio Grande
basin and southern Terrell County. Lows will also struggle to stay
above freezing northeast of the Rio Grande basin and across
Terrell County, with lows still falling below freezing northeast
of the Rio Grande basin. Winds shift to northeasterly behind
another cold front next Wednesday which will further hamper any
quicker warming. Next Thursday, the slow warming trend is showing
signs of reversing in the NBM with temperatures remaining near to
below average and a reinforcing cold front indicated from another
shift to northeasterly winds. No precipitation chances expected
into the middle of next week, but plan on dangerous cold weather
early in the week and continued chilly to freezing temperatures
each night into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions expected most of the period. An arctic cold front
arrives near 12Z with MVFR CIGs beginning to affect the terminals.
Most TAF sites will see rain through the next 24 hours changing to
freezing rain 24-30 hours severely impacting operations. HOB could
see sleet earlier. Icing will be a major concern late in the TAF
period through early Sunday.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               40  41  16  17 /  10  70  90  90
Carlsbad                 38  42  26  30 /  20  60  90  90
Dryden                   46  61  28  36 /  10  20  70  80
Fort Stockton            47  52  24  30 /  10  40  90  90
Guadalupe Pass           42  44  26  32 /  20  70  90  90
Hobbs                    32  38  19  21 /  10  60  90  90
Marfa                    40  62  34  42 /  10  40  80  90
Midland Intl Airport     41  44  19  21 /  20  60  90  90
Odessa                   41  45  17  20 /  20  60  90  90
Wink                     37  48  21  24 /  30  60  90  90

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday to 6 AM
     CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning
     for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Sunday for
     Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Monday morning
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10