882
FXUS64 KLZK 121657 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1157 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
   remainder of the night and into Friday as a cold front moves
   through.

- The strongest storms may produce some gusty winds but
  widespread severe weather is not expected.

- Rain chances will continue through the weekend and into the
  middle of next week until weak upper level high pressure builds
  in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Guidance continues to show an unsettled pattern for the next few
days as frontal boundaries will be meandering around the forecast
area. Convection this morning is largely tied to or slightly behind
a cold front now located over NW Arkansas in a moderately unstable
air mass. Mesoanalysis/model soundings do keep DCAPE values at or
above 1000 J/KG for most of the state through the remainder of the
night so there will remain the potential of some gusty winds with
any stronger storm. Storms have slowly been increasing for the past
several hours and are now making a push into the FA.

CAMS models do show widely scattered convection continuing through
the remainder of the night and into the day time hours, mainly along
the advancing boundary, as the air mass remains moist and unstable.
Any stronger storm could still produce some gusty winds and large
hail.

Front will eventually stall out along the Arkansas/Louisiana border
by Friday evening. Boundary will then begin to lift back to the
north Friday night through Saturday and become the focus for
increased rain chances. Yet another cold front will be moving
through the region early next week as a mid level trough finally
swings through. Frontal interactions and abundant moisture will keep
POPS and QPF on the higher side until the final FROPA but it is
worth mentioning that continuous rain in not expected at this time.

Guidance still inconsistent with QPF. NBM is showing a general 1 to
2 inch rainfall through Monday with higher amounts over the southern
third of the state. However, deterministic guidance shows better
chances across the north where a slight risk of excessive rainfall
exists according to the latest EROs. Rain chances do taper off
towards the middle of next week as the aforementioned trough exits
the region and is replaced by weak mid level ridging.

Concerning temperatures, another seasonable warm day is expected
across the FA today with another steamy one for Saturday as the warm
front pushes to the north. Heat index values do flirt with criteria
Saturday over parts of the Delta but cooler air does come in for
Sunday across the north and statewide for Monday. Heat returns for
mid week and beyond with heat indices climbing close to criteria
again for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The early morning TS complex across SW Arkansas continues to
diminish while a few storms persist across far eastern portions of
the state. A mixed bag of VFR/MVFR cigs will persist through the
afternoon hours. Some additional TS development is possible
through 13/00z, mainly across southern portions of the state.
Confidence in coverage and impacts to area terminals remains low.
Latest short term guidance indicates another TS complex may
approach northern AR terminals by 13/12z. This could provide
reduced cigs/vsby and strong wind gusts to KHRO/KBPK. Otherwise,
sfc winds will remain variable in direction and strength across
the state with some occasional non-thunderstorm wind gusts to 20
kts possible at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  88  73  82 /  20  40  60  30
Camden AR         75  93  77  88 /  10  10  20  70
Harrison AR       70  84  68  75 /  20  50  90  40
Hot Springs AR    75  90  75  84 /  10  30  60  70
Little Rock   AR  75  91  76  84 /  20  30  60  70
Monticello AR     77  93  78  89 /  10  10  10  70
Mount Ida AR      74  88  75  82 /  10  20  70  80
Mountain Home AR  70  84  69  77 /  30  50  90  30
Newport AR        73  90  74  84 /  30  50  60  50
Pine Bluff AR     75  91  77  86 /  10  20  30  70
Russellville AR   75  90  75  83 /  20  30  70  50
Searcy AR         73  90  74  84 /  20  30  50  60
Stuttgart AR      76  91  77  85 /  10  30  50  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56
AVIATION...67