955
FXUS64 KLZK 311721 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

-Oppressive heat/humidity will continue across a large part of
 Arkansas today with highs topping out in the mid 90s/lower 100s.

-Heat headlines are in effect through the late afternoon hours
 today across a large portion of Arkansas.

-Friday through through Monday will feature temperatures below
 climatological averages in the wake of a frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Skies were mostly cloudy (mainly due to high clouds) early this
Thursday morning. Temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Winds were generally light and variable. Regional WSR 88D radars
depicted pulse type convection which was likely related to remnant
outflow boundaries lingering across the state. This activity is
expected to remain widely scattered through the predawn hours.

Today, hot and humid conditions are expected across a good portion
of the state. A backdoor cold front is anticipated to move across
AR this evening through Friday morning. Compressional warming
ahead of the front coupled with moisture pooling ahead of the
front will lead to temperatures climbing into the 90s to lower
100s. Combining high amounts of low-level moisture to the
equation and heat index values should top out between 105 and 115
degrees. Based on frontal compression/moisture pooling, in
conjunction with yesterdays realized heat indices values, opted to
increase a good portion of the Heat Advisory area to an Extreme
Heat Warning. Only portions of N-Cntrl and NW AR have no heat
headlines for today. The caveat to todays high temperature/max
heat index forecast is the expectation of showers and
thunderstorms to develop early this afternoon. If these storms
develop too early into the day, criteria may not be realized in
some places. However where rainfall holds off a bit longer, max
T`s and max apparent T`s will be brutal. A few storms could become
strong to severe in this high CAPE low shear environment. Wet
microbursts would the greatest thunderstorm hazard. PoP chances
are expected to be greatest between noon and sunset, but PoPs may
carryover into the overnight period thanks to the frontal
boundary moving across the state.

Going into Friday, a substantial cool down will be felt across the
state. This cool down should last through Monday. Why are we having
a cold front on this last day of July into first day of August? Well
synoptically, the ridge that was centered over the region earlier in
the week will have retrograded in the Srn Rockies/Four Corners
region. Locally, NW flow aloft in combination with strong surface
high pressure over the Nrn MS Valley will be the main driver of
this backdoor cold front. Temperatures behind the front should be
in the 60s to near 70 degrees for lows with highs in the upper
70s to 80s. Given these expected conditions, plus lower dew point
temperatures, the end result is several days of no heat
headlines! Rain chances beyond Friday will be low and confined to
the Srn third of AR in closer proximity to the frontal boundary.

Unfortunately, all cool things must come to an end. The
aforementioned upper ridge will build back into the region through
mid week bringing a return of hot and humid conditions back to AR.
Temperatures will once again soar back in the 90s with heat index
values exceeding the triple digit mark.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

A cold front will progress southward across the area through the
evening hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible across the state through tonight. VFR
conditions will remain common but occasional impacts from RA/TS
activity are likely. Precip should diminish in coverage by 01/06z
with lower cigs expected to develop which will lead to
deteriorating conditions by Friday morning. Little improvement may
be seen through 01/18z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  84  64  85 /  30  10   0   0
Camden AR         73  89  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
Harrison AR       66  81  61  81 /  30  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    73  88  69  89 /  30  40  10  10
Little Rock   AR  73  87  69  87 /  20  20   0  10
Monticello AR     75  90  71  90 /  30  30  10  10
Mount Ida AR      72  86  67  87 /  30  40  10  20
Mountain Home AR  67  81  62  81 /  30  10   0   0
Newport AR        71  85  65  85 /  20  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     72  88  68  88 /  30  20  10  10
Russellville AR   73  88  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
Searcy AR         71  86  66  86 /  20  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      73  86  68  87 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-016-024-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ008-017-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...67