617
FXUS64 KLZK 060746
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
146 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected over west to
  northwest Arkansas Friday night, including all severe hazards.

- Additional round of severe weather expected Saturday afternoon
  to evening over southeast half of Arkansas.

- Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will lead to a
  risk for local flash flooding across the state through early
  next week.

- Above normal high temperatures expected through early next week,
  with some locations nearing daily records.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Severe weather threat acrs the NWrn to Wrn AR Fri evng to overnight
has been maintained w/ continuation of slight to enhanced risk, and
no significant changes to mention regarding severe hazards.

Recent mesoanalysis depicted a high-amplitude H500 trof moving Ewrd
acrs the Four Corners region, w/ strong SWrly flow extending over
much of the Srn Cntrl US. At the sfc, broad cyclonic flow was
centered over the lee of the Rockies/Cntrl Great Plains, w/ a wrm
frnt draped Ewrd along the I70 to I44 corridor through KS to MO.
Locally, sfc dewpoints in the upper 50s were prevalent over much of
the region, w/ a plume of low 60s dewpoints located over the I10
corridor in Nrn LA. Thru the remainder of the overnight PD Thurs
night, poleward moisture transport wl be aided by 45kt H850 LLJ, w/
low 60s dewpoints progged to encompass most of AR by 18Z Fri aftn.


...Fri/Sat Severe Weather...

Thru the day Fri, a jet streak in the basal region of the
aforementioned H500 trof wl quickly eject NEwrd over the Cntrl
Plains, w/ Wrn to NWrn AR on the periphery of higher magnitude deep-
layer shear, but modest bulk shear of 40 to near 50 kts is still
fcst to overspread the area later Fri night. Subtle height falls
aloft, and strong wrm advection over the Ozark Plateau Fri aftn
alongside incrsg BL moisture should contribute to modest
destabilization acrs the Wrn half of the state by Fri evng. Some
variability and uncertainties are still evident amongst CAM
guidance, but a consensus on MUCAPE progs near 1000 J/kg is still
evident, w/ sufficient buoyancy persisting thru 06Z Fri night. Given
the strong wrm advection regime, some isolated to scattered elevated
convection could arise over the NWrn half of the state on Fri, and
would lead to greater sfc inhibition later on.

Based on 00Z HREF members, storm development should begin over Ern
OK near 00Z Fri night, w/ clusters of storms quickly moving NEwrd
into Wrn and NWrn AR thru 00-06Z. An initial semi-discrete storm-
mode wl lkly transition to segments and bowing segments as SWrly
shear vectors lead to upscale growth. Despite upscale growth, the
onset of another 40-50 kt LLJ should drive storm maintenance well
beyond 00Z, w/ local hodographs becoming enhanced, and supporting
low-level SRH near 200-300 m2/s2, and driving a conditional tornado
threat. As usually tends to be the case, the diurnal transition wl
yield a challenge for storms to stay sfc-based, and if this
condition can be achieved, a higher tornado threat wl manifest thru
the evng, as well as the attendant damaging wind threat w/ any
bowing line segments.

Convective activity wl lkly persist thru the overnight PD Fri,
eventually becoming undercut by a trailing cdfrnt as it reaches
Cntrl AR Sat mrng. An additional round of severe weather is expected
to begin thereafter, w/ the convective remnants becoming
reinvigorated Sat aftn, departing to the SE towards the ARKLAMISS
region thru the remainder of Sat.

...Fri/Sat Flash Flooding...

In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall wl
be possible Fri night and Sat. Current base guidance suggests local
regions of 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall wl be possible over Wrn to
NWrn AR overnight Fri, and any training could lead to higher totals.
Antecedent rainfall fm Wed night yielded some areas of rainfall near
1.5 to 2 inches, and may be primed for a quicker flooding threat if
rainfall occurs over these same regions, otherwise, the flooding
threat should stay more isolated Fri night.

Sat, greater and more widespread rainfall amounts are possible over
the SErn half of the state thru Sat night. Richer moisture is
expected to be in place ahead of the aforementioned cdfrnt, and
weaker Erly mean wind motion vectors could contribute to greater
training potential w/in an ongoing MCS. Thru Sat night, base QPF
guidance suggests widespread amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches over the
SErn half of the state, w/ greater totals near the ARKLAMISS region,
and higher 90th percentile values in excess of 3 inches over
portions of SErn AR. Antecedent drought conditions suggest most of
this rainfall could be beneficial, but any significant training
could lead to more prominent flash flooding issues.

...Remainder of the long term period...

Thru the end of the weekend, a brief lull in precip is expected for
most of the day Sun, w/ the cdfrnt washing out over SErn AR, and
driving higher PoPs over far SErn AR. Srly sfc flow should quickly
resume by Mon, w/ incrsg covg of PoPs for much of state by Mon aftn
to evng. Quick recovery of sfc moisture, and a weak upper shortwave
moving acrs the Ozark Plateau could yield some organized storm
potential, but confidence remains lower on additional severe weather
chances Mon.

Long range ensembles still have some disagreements on our next
impactful system mid next week. The cutoff low will be picked up by
the upper level jet and propagate eastward in the middle of next
week. GEFS has the system become a lot weaker as it approaches and
favors more of a general washout pattern. EPS has the system
strengthening over the ARK/LA/TEX region. This would promote more
of an active severe weather pattern with all modes of severe
weather possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Both ensembles
favor QPF between 3-5" across most of AR so widespread good
beneficial rainfall can be expected.

After this system passes upper level flow become very zonal for the
rest of the forecast period. Temps will return to near normal during
this for the rest of the week. Skies will clear out closer to the
end of the week setting the stage for a very pleasant weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Prevail VFR conditions through the overnight hours across all TAF
sites. Just before sunrise, prevail southerly flow that continues
to advect moisture northward will also allow for MVFR ceilings to
overspread the state from south to north. As cold front approaches
tomorrow S flow out ahead of storms will increase and create LLWS
across most terminals. Northern terminals will see storm activity
increasing by 03z tomorrow, and activity will spread south into
the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  64  75  48 /  20  90  80  40
Camden AR         84  64  74  56 /  40  80 100  70
Harrison AR       77  58  67  41 /  40  90  50  20
Hot Springs AR    81  62  76  52 /  30  90  90  60
Little Rock   AR  82  65  76  53 /  20  90  90  60
Monticello AR     85  67  75  59 /  20  60 100  70
Mount Ida AR      80  62  76  50 /  50  90  80  60
Mountain Home AR  79  60  70  42 /  20  80  50  20
Newport AR        80  64  76  51 /  20  80  90  40
Pine Bluff AR     84  65  74  55 /  20  80 100  60
Russellville AR   81  62  76  49 /  50  90  70  40
Searcy AR         82  62  76  50 /  20  90  90  50
Stuttgart AR      82  65  74  55 /  20  80 100  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72/78
AVIATION...78