Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
661 FNUS71 KLWX 091544 FWSLWX Spot Forecast for Elizabeth...USFS National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1044 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 EST on November 09. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... High pressure will build from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, then move offshore tonight as a warm front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The warm front will lift across the area Sunday as low pressure moves from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada. A trailing cold front will cross the region Monday, then a secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the middle of the week before another frontal system crosses Thursday into Friday. Northerly wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are likely over the Blue Ridge and Catoctin mountains, as well as near and east of US-15 through early this afternoon. At the same time, abundant dry air advecting into the region will drop relative humidity to 25 to 35 percent, locally 10 to 20 percent over 2000 feet elevation by early to mid afternoon. A window of overlap between breezy and dry conditions may exist for several hours around midday, resulting in locally elevated fire weather conditions and the threat for rapid fire spread. Winds will turn to the southeast tonight, becoming light to calm in the lower elevations while gusting 15 to 25 mph over the higher elevations. RH recovery will be modest overnight, generally 60 to 80 percent by daybreak Sunday. Southerly wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are anticipated Sunday, but RH will be rising during this time. A widespread wetting rain ranging from a quarter to half inch is likely Sunday into Monday as a cold front crosses the region. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). CWR.................0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 59. Min humidity........30 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph late in the morning becoming light. Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 13 mph shifting to the east 3 to 5 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28500 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Eye level winds.....Northeast winds up to 4 mph late in the morning becoming light. TIME (EST) 11 AM 2 PM 5 PM Sky (%).........5 20 27 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 Temp............53 59 53 RH..............41 30 38 20 FT wind......NE 7G12 E 5G7 E 3G7 Eye level wind..NE 4G7 E 3G4 E 2G4 Mix hgt (ft)....2600 2600 1600 Transport wind..NE 13 E 6 E 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..29 13 5 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). CWR.................0 percent. Min temperature.....Around 40. Max humidity........67 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......0 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 2 to 3 mph shifting to the south 2 to 8 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft). Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southwest up to 4 mph after 3 am. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........28 51 45 66 82 75 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............49 45 43 42 43 44 RH..............44 51 57 59 64 64 20 ft wind......SE 2 SE 2 S 2 S 2 SW 3 SW 6 20 ft wind gust.6 6 7 9 10 13 Eye level wind..SE 1 SE 1 S 1 S 1 SW 2 SW 4 Eye lvl wnd gst.4 4 4 5 6 8 Mix hgt (ft)....800 BLW100 100 100 200 300 Transport wind..E 3 E 2 S 2 S 3 S 6 S 7 Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 0 0 0 1 2 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain likely in the afternoon. CWR.................10 percent increasing to 70 percent in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 58. Min humidity........54 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph late in the morning then 20 mph early in the afternoon, then then 21 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (19300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Eye level winds.....South winds up to 6 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph late in the morning then 20 mph early in the afternoon, then then 21 mph late in the afternoon. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........85 73 81 92 93 82 Weather cov..... LIKELY LIKELY Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 10 10 10 70 70 Temp............43 44 51 55 56 56 RH..............67 60 54 56 57 61 20 ft wind......SW 7 S 8 S 9 S 9 S 9 S 9 20 ft wind gust.15 17 18 18 20 20 Eye level wind..SW 4 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 Eye lvl wnd gst.9 10 11 11 12 12 Mix hgt (ft)....300 600 1100 1300 1000 500 Transport wind..S 9 S 13 S 16 S 17 S 16 S 16 Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 6 15 19 15 8 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...Rosa Requested by...Lyte Gillespie Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2426190.0/LWX .DELDT 11/09/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL vavic@firenet.gov