532
FXUS64 KLUB 242335
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
535 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

 - Heavy snow is expected tonight, along with the potential for
   whiteout conditions, making travel difficult or impossible.

 - Life-threatening travel conditions are expected across the far
   southern Texas Panhandle tonight.

 - Snow will end Sunday afternoon, with extreme cold lasting
   through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, the southern-stream, positively-tilted,
shortwave trough was pivoting over Baja Sur. A small, but still
closed, mid-level cyclone was embedded within this trough, and is
expected to open this afternoon as a northern-stream jet streak
translating southward over the Sierra Nevada Mountains impinges on
the southern-stream trough. Broad, southwesterly flow and its
associated WAA (i.e., the warm-conveyor) persists over W TX, with
widespread, isentropically-induced sleet and snow ongoing across the
entire CWA. While the 12Z RAOB data has been sparse, interpolation
between the EPZ and OUN RAOBs, in addition to trends in water-vapor
imagery and mesoscale analysis, indicate that the warm nose above
the shallow Arctic airmass remains sharp and well-defined. There
have been confirmed reports of sleet despite surface temperatures in
the single-digits, which is an exceptionally rare observation for
temperatures this cold, and cements that the warm nose is, indeed,
intact aloft. As the trough ejects northeastward throughout the rest
of the afternoon, the wide field of moist, isentropic ascent will be
maintained, with light sleet and snow expected area-wide through
sunset. Localized spurts of moderate-to-heavy sleet and/or snow can
also be expected through this evening before a changeover to snow.

At the surface, the northerly fetch persists, with brisk winds
between 15-25 mph. Temperatures were very cold, with all WTM sites
observing temperatures below 10 degrees, with the exception of
Denver City, as of 1613Z. Thick overcast throughout the mid-levels
will restrict diabatic heating, with only a marginal uptick in high
temperatures. Highs are expected to peak near 10 degrees for most of
the CWA, with the exception of the far southern TX PH where highs
will remain in the single-digits. Winds will gradually diminish by
this evening as the post-frontal pressure gradient weakens and the
1030 mb Arctic surface high rotates southward into W TX. However,
with temperatures this cold, even a 10 mph wind will result in wind
chill values below zero deg F area-wide. Wind chill value as of
1613Z were between -10 and -15 deg F for most of the CWA.

The shortwave trough will eject over northern Mexico and into the TX
Big Bend tonight, with a belt of intense divergence overspreading
the southern Great Plains as a 300 mb jet streak approaching 100 kt
emerges over the CWA. Irrotational wind vectors will enlarge as the
base of the trough approaches W TX and due to the CWA becoming
positioned beneath the entrance-region to the northern-stream jet
streak situated over the central Great Plains. The intensity of the
high-level divergence amongst the broadly difluent flow will result
in strong ascent that will converge with a mid-level cold front
moving southward across the central Great Plains. The columns are
already saturated with respect to water and mostly ice; but as the
geopotential heights continue to fall due to the ejecting rough,
dynamical cooling of the columns will result in the columns becoming
completely supersaturated with respect to ice after dark. This leads
to an expectation for the production of heavy snow heading into
tonight, with a frontal-parallel movement to the band(s), as the
band(s) will be contained within the warm-conveyor where a deep DGZ
will be present over most of the CWA.

Dendritic growth is expected to be particularly intense; however,
the warm nose will remain intact, but below freezing (i.e., cooling
below -4 deg C). This will result in heavy riming of large,
dendritic aggregates, with dendrites riming and collapsing into
large plates before descending into the Arctic layer beneath the
warm nose. The combination of the healthy kinematic and thermal
profiles bolsters confidence in the potential for heavy snow, with
hourly snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour expected within
the core of the band(s). Whiteout conditions may occur across some
locales tonight in congruence with the snowfall rate maxima. Storm
total snow accumulations have been raised, primarily for the far
southern TX PH, which is where the highest confidence is for
prolonged, heavy snow tonight. Snow accumulations between 4-8 inches
are forecast for the southern South and Rolling Plains, 6-10 inches
for the remainder of the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far
southern TX PH; and localized amounts may near 12 inches across the
far southern TX PH through sunrise Sunday. Snow will taper off after
sunrise as the backside of the trough arrives. Light snow will end
Sunday afternoon. Winds will become light and variable Sunday night.

Travel will become difficult or impossible during the height of the
storm tonight. Life-threatening travel conditions are expected
across the far southern TX PH tonight. Exercise proper precautions
against extreme cold and heavy snow should travel be necessary
tonight. The risk of becoming stranded tonight is high, especially
outside of any town or city limits. Do not underestimate the risk of
exposure from being stranded in extreme cold and heavy snow tonight.
Emergency services may not be able to reach you if you travel in
rural areas.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place over the center of the
CONUS through the next week. This will mean the occasional
reinforcing shot of cold air will advance southward across the High
Plains, keeping temperatures below average through the extended.
Temperatures will be particularly cold Sunday night into Monday
morning as clearing skies, light winds and a fresh snowpack conspire
to provide ideal radiational cooling. The current forecast calls for
lows of 0 to -6 degrees areawide, though this may actually be
conservative, and we wouldn`t be surprised to see some spots touch
the negative double digits. Regardless, the bitterly cold
temperatures will be hazardous, despite wind under 10 knots,
and the Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect through midday on
Monday. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the middle of
the week as downslope surface flow returns through much of that
period. Depending on how much snow we get tonight, and how long it
takes to melt it, forecast highs may be a bit warm, but currently
reflect highs in the mid to upper 20s Monday, with upper 30s to
lower 40s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Another shot of colder
air appears to arrive late week, either Friday or Friday night. This
air won`t be nearly as cold as what we are currently immersed in,
but it will knock highs back into the 30s. A moisture-starved
shortwave trough emerging from the Four Corners or Desert Southwest
could even bring a brief shot of wintry weather to the region on
Friday. Those details will have to be worked out over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Expecting a deterioration of flight conditions late this evening
as sleet and snow showers transition to mostly snow...which may
become heavy at times at all three terminals. VSBY should remain
IFR while CIGS slowly fall from MVFR to IFR - with both dropping
BLO MINS for periods when moderate to heavy snow is falling. Snow
rates should begin to diminish by 12Z Sunday morning with
gradually lifting VSBY and CIGS, although snow showers may linger
through late morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...33