Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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699 FXUS64 KLUB 092020 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 220 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 218 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Quiet weather ahead with near to warmer than normal temperatures through the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 As an upper low continues to move eastward across the Central Plains we will see upper level ridging move overhead locally through Sunday afternoon. Another weak surface trough will move through the area during the overnight hours shifting light winds to the northwest and north. This will bring even warmer temperatures for Sunday rising above seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Upper ridging will dominate Monday ahead of an approaching upper trough that will move across the Rockies Tuesday. This next upper trough will drop a cold front southward into the FA by Wednesday morning. Southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front will allow highs to warm into the low/upper 70s before dropping to the 60s area wide Wednesday. Upper flow will become southwesterly Thursday as the upper trough quickly pushes eastward and upper ridging builds just to our east. Southwesterly upper flow will persist into the weekend as the FA becomes situated between an upper ridge to our east and upper trough to our west. Though beyond the forecast period, models are in somewhat agreement with developing a closed low at the base of the upper trough over the Desert Southwest. While the ECMWF has trended drier, the GFS continues to have the possibility of precip across the region by the late weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 VFR is expected through the TAF period with breezy west winds this afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest overnight but speeds will be light. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...01