357
FXUS64 KLUB 311053
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
553 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

 - Hot temperatures roll straight into September.

 - Rain chances are dire, yet a window could crack open by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

High temperatures inch lower for Monday and again on Tuesday as the
upper high departs toward the Ohio River Valley leaving us under a
weaker branch of subsidence. Even with less subsidence, moisture
remains too paltry for anything more than some afternoon cumulus.
Sadly, August in Lubbock is closing the gap with 2011 as the
warmest ever. September starts the same as August left off with
no real change in temps as both lows and highs hover around 10
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The remainder of this week remains fraught with drought and hot
temperatures as we see the core of the heat dome slowly retreat from
the Smoky Mountains to the southern Great Plains by the weekend.
Two minor features worth noting during this time involve the
remnants of a compact tropical system making landfall along the
Upper Texas Coast on Tuesday, and a modest intrusion of monsoonal
moisture across the Caprock for Thursday and Friday as our flow
aloft turns more southwesterly. Although very unlikely, a few
models drift the tropical remnants with precip into our Rolling
Plains counties by Friday, with some diurnally-driven storms on
the Caprock by Thursday accompanying the monsoonal moisture.
Neither of these solutions have much support from the multi-day
ensembles, so our forecast officially remains dry. The core of
the 596-599 dam high looks to flex its muscles just to our north
by next weekend which would keep us locked in upper 90s and lower
100s for highs. NBM and MOS are not capturing this hotter signal
very well at the moment and instead show maxT`s either leveling
off or falling, but this will be revisited in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR and generally light southerly winds will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19