037
FXUS64 KLUB 071105
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

 - Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected early Thursday
   morning with some patchy frost possible over the far
   southwestern Texas Panhandle.

 - Temperatures will warm up through the first part of the weekend
   before a passing cold front cools Sunday.

 - Hot temperatures expected next week with possible record
   breaking heat mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Current surface observations indicate breezy east to northeasterly
winds have filled in across the Caprock following a cold front with
the strongest winds expected along the NM/TX border. These breezy
winds are expected to prevail for the next few hours as the front
continues through the region. Winds will diminish early this morning
as the front exits the region. This morning may be the coolest
morning for a good while with low temperatures in the lower 30s to
upper 40s. The lowest temperatures are expected across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern portions of the South
Plains. There is also the possibility for the development of frost
for the same area. A Frost advisory is in effect from 4 AM until 9
AM this morning for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and
northwest South Plains. Luckily, the cooler temperatures do not last
long. Winds will shift to the southwest later this morning as the
region will sit between a surface high to the east and a surface low
that is expected to develop over the NM/CO border. Southwesterly
surface flow and sunny skies will allow temperatures to warm to the
70s across the region this afternoon. Winds will shift to the south
after sunset as the surface low begins to gradually shift east,
however are expected to remain light. Tonight will be warmer with
lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s with mostly clear skies. Otherwise,
a quiet and pleasant night is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

After a cooler Thursday, the long term forecast will start off with
a warm up Friday and Saturday. On the upper levels, a low will
translate across northern Mexico to Central Texas through the day
Friday. Despite the close proximity of this upper system, it will be
too far south to have an impact on our CWA. Therefore, Friday and
Saturday remain dry. Models indicate a weak front will approach the
region late Friday, however the only impact will be shifting winds
to the east northeast overnight. Winds will quickly shift back to
the south early Saturday aiding in temperatures warming up to the
90s. Following the upper low that tracked to the south of the
region, a shortwave will pass over the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for a
small area of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle where the upper
shortwave will pass, however the better storm chances will be to the
east to southeast of the CWA. On the surface, a cold front is
progged to pass through the region over the weekend, however models
are in disagreement in timing of the front. GFS has a faster
progression with the front reaching the northern border of the CWA
Saturday evening. ECMWF has a slower progression with the front
reaching the region early Sunday morning. Either progression will
give way to "cooler" temperatures for Sunday. Sadly, these cooler
temperatures are not expected to continue. An upper ridge will begin
to build over western CONUS early next week. Height and thickness
increases due to the upper ridging will aide in warming temperature
to the 90s to lower 100s. We could even see record breaking heat
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

So far this morning, low CIGS have stayed away from the TAF sites.
However, there is still a low chance of MVFR CIGS affecting KLBB
and KPVW this morning. Another round of low CIGS will be possible
at the very end of this TAF period at KLBB and KPVW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>023-027-
028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01