Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
349 FXUS64 KLUB 311746 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Thunderstorms will be possible areawide this afternoon and overnight. Some could become strong with locally heavy rainfall. - Storm chances continue Friday through Sunday, with hot and dry conditions returning next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A blocking ridge continues across portions of the NWRN CONUS and western provinces of Canada with a split flow regime remaining in place across the west whilst an upper level low churns east of Hudson Bay and a jet max departs the northeastern USA. Over the next 36 hours, the southern branch of the jet stream will become increasingly zonally oriented and further strengthening of the western ridge is apparent. To our south, a weak disturbance indicated at H2 remains situated over the states of Durango/Zacatecas. H5 depicts a stout east/west oriented high, which was originally two separate regions of high pressure, fills into a feature extending from beyond Bermuda across the southern CONUS thence a good chunk of the way to Hawaii. Focusing more on West Texas, northerly mid level flow will persist overnight and the increasing depth of high pressure has largely cut- off the monsoon moisture. However, the higher theta-e near-surface layer brought about by the outflow enhanced frontal surge yesterday will yield an environment conducive for mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms area-wide this evening continuing into early Friday morning. Once again, the morning and afternoon daylight hours should yield a quieter weather period with storms firing up once again Friday afternoon. There is a high degree of uncertainty of where the activity will be most prolific Friday afternoon though there`s a general trend toward seeing a convective complex translating out of eastern New Mexico. In terms of storms, there is little evidence of particularly strong activity though some pulse-type strong activity is possible. Little (less than 20 KT) of bulk shear and 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE indicated in guidance would support this. However, there is much uncertainty with the evolution of extant and to-be-realized boundaries. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A weak upper trough and associated surface cold front will allow for slight storm chances continuing into Friday evening, mainly across the southern Panhandle, although they could extend a bit farther south per synoptic models. In any case, severe weather is generally not expected, however a few storms may produce strong winds and heavy downpours. A weak upper wave/LLJ late Saturday combined with light SE surface flow may bring some additional slight storm chances, again mainly over the far southern Panhandle. A moderately stronger wave propagating ahead of high pressure over the Desert Southwest with surface winds switching southwest allowing for some monsoonal moisture to work its way into the area will round out the storm chances for the weekend. Latest guidance indicates these would be generally off the Caprock. The aforementioned upper high pressure will shift over our area early next week, curtailing any precipitation chances and bringing hot temperatures, with widespread triple-digit highs expected beginning Tuesday and likely persisting through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Thunderstorm activity is expected to return across West Texas this afternoon perhaps focused more adeptly across areas southeast of a KLBB/KCDS line though a risk will exist at each terminal given the airmass state in place at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected outside of convective activity at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...26