744
FNUS73 KLSX 111333
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Bunker...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
833 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on September 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions will continue today, with well above average
temperatures, moderate to low afternoon humidity, and mostly light
east to southeast winds. Deep mixing is expected this afternoon
with mixing heights likely to climb over 7000 feet, which will
also support some more noticeable but not particularly strong wind
gusts. Dry conditions will continue overnight with moderate
overnight humidity recoveries.

While dry conditions are expected to continue Thursday, increasing
cloud cover is expected to keep temperatures cooler than today,
with higher humidity as well. Easterly winds are likely to be
slightly stronger as well. This will all be the result of
approaching remnants of hurricane Francine, which is also
increasingly likely to produce much needed soaking rain overnight
Thursday through Friday. This is beyond the burn period listed,
but may be relevant for mop-up activities.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 88.
RH..................70 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable at ignition...becoming
                    east-southeast 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 11 mph.
Eye level winds.....Light and variable at ignition...becoming
                    east-southeast 1 to 3 mph with gusts to 5 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 7800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /440 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...good /11010
                    m/s-m/.

TIME (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
Sky (%).........28     30     28     28     31     36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............63     78     85     88     88     84
RH..............70     50     41     35     35     41
20 ft wind......E 2    SE 3   SE 4   SE 5   SE 5   E 3
20 ft wind gust.4      6      8      11     11     8
Eye level wind..E 1    SE 1   SE 2   SE 2   SE 2   E 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.2      3      4      4      4      4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5    2.0    6.2    7.6    7.8    3.1
Transport wind..E 7    SE 7   SE 7   SE 9   SE 10  SE 8
Haines index....3      4      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      12     37     61     70     22
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 61.
RH..................Max 78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Min 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (580 m/s-m).

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 77.
RH..................Min 54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 9 mph with gusts to 16 mph
                    late in the morning.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east 2 to 4 mph with gusts to 8 mph
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......Max 3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 18 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (440 m/s-m) early in the morning
                    increasing to good max (9430 m/s-m) in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...19
Requested by...Tim Bray
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422245.0/LSX
.DELDT 09/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0