Quantitative Precipitation Statement
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
652
FSUS46 KLOX 172121
QPSLOX
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
110 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
Precipitation forecasts in inches are provided in 3-hour
increments until 0400 followed by 6-hour increments until 1600.
Thunderstorm chances cover up to 1600 on day 1 only.
Light rainfall amounts greater than zero but less than a tenth of an
inch are shown as lgt.
The discussion covers the period from: Mon Nov 17 2025 through Sun Nov 23 2025.
&&
16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
San Luis Obispo County...
LSRC1:Cambria lgt 0.0 lgt 0.0 | lgt 0.0
SMRC1:Santa Margarita lgt 0.0 lgt 0.0 | lgt 0.0
NIPC1:Lopez Lake lgt 0.0 lgt 0.0 | lgt 0.0
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.01-0.05 0.01-0.03
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 1600-1900
Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.0 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.
&& 16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
Santa Barbara County...
SIYC1:Santa Maria lgt 0.0 lgt 0.0 | lgt 0.0
SBTC1:Santa Barbara Potrero lgt 0.0 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 0.3
GBRC1:Gibraltar Dam lgt 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
SMCC1:San Marcos Pass lgt 0.0 0.0 0.0 | lgt 0.0
SBFC1:Santa Barbara City lgt 0.0 0.0 0.0 | lgt 0.0
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.01-0.05 0.05-0.15
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 1600-1900
Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 0.25 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.
&& 16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
Ventura County...
FGWC1:Fagan Canyon lgt 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
HRCC1:Hopper Canyon 0.1 lgt lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
MTDC1:Matilija Dam lgt 0.0 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
VTUC1:Ventura City lgt 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
MORC1:Moorpark lgt lgt 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
CRXC1:Circle X Ranch lgt 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.05-0.10 0.05-0.15
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: <50% <50%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <5% <5%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 1600-1900
Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 1.00 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.
&& 16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16
Los Angeles County...
WFKC1:West Fork Heliport 0.3 0.6 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
BDDC1:Big Dalton Dam 0.2 0.5 0.1 lgt | lgt lgt
PCDC1:Pacoima Dam 0.6 0.3 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
FLTC1:La Canada Flintridge 0.2 0.5 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
SAUC1:Saugus 0.4 0.1 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
CQT:Downtown LA 0.3 0.1 lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
MLUC1:Malibu Big Rock Mesa 0.1 lgt lgt 0.0 | 0.0 lgt
1-Hr Rates: Coasts/Valleys Foothills/Mountains
Expected Peak (in/hr): 0.25-0.50 0.25-0.50
Probability 0.50+ in/hr: 100% 100%
Probability 1.00+ in/hr: <60% <60%
Peak rates expected to occur between: 1600-1900
Chance of Thunderstorms: 20%
Isolated rates around 1.0 in/hr possible near thunderstorms.
&&
DISCUSSION:
Unsettled weather continues this week with two storms likely,
although the first one today will be the most impactful.
Storm #1 details: Moderate to embedded pockets of heavy rain will
march south along and ahead of a cold front this afternoon and
evneing. Along and behind the front there is a 20-30 percent chance
of thunderstorms through tonight. Peak rain rates of 0.25-0.50
inches per hour will be common, with local rates up to around 1.00
inch per hour possible with thunderstorms and along south to
southwest facing slopes. Minor roadway/small stream flooding,
additional rockslides/mudslides, and shallow debris flows near
recent burn scars will be common due to this storm being on the
heels of the historic rainfall we received just a few days ago.
There is a 20-30 percent chance of reaching or even exceeding debris
flow thresholds (15, 30, 60 minute durations) in the recent burn
scars.
A secondary peak of thunderstorm chances is Tuesday afternoon
focused across interior mountains into most of LA County given its
more conducive location with better moisture and instability on the
east side of the departing cold upper low. Any thunderstorms that do
form could be slow moving or even stationary, leading to the
potential for very isolated flooding concerns as well as debris
flows near recent burn scars, especially concerning the unusually
wet conditions with peak rates potentially 0.25-0.5 inch per hour
with very isolated 0.80+ inch per hour.
Snow levels are expected to be above 7000 feet during the onset of
this next storm, but are expected to lower to between 5000 and 6000
feet by tonight, and around 4500 feet on Tuesday. Snow accumulations
of 5-10 inches will be possibly above 7000 feet with 2-5 inches
between 5000 and 7000 feet. On Tuesday morning, there is a small
chance of snow showers reaching down to the Grapevine along I-5, but
any accumulations would likely be minimal.
Storm #2 details: This storm is currently expected to be weaker than
our previous storms, generatin rain totals between 0.25 and 1.25
inches. However, there is the potential for this storm to generate
higher totals, depending on its track. Snow levels are expected to
drop to around 5500 feet. So, there will likely be several
additional inches of snowfall accumulation across the mountains.
$$