470
FXUS66 KLOX 032146
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
246 PM PDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...03/150 PM.

Below normal temperatures, patchy marine layer clouds, and breezy
onshore winds will continue today and Friday. Tropical Cyclone
Marie, which will remain well offshore of SoCal, will impact the
region over the weekend into early next week. Light rain is
favored for Sunday focused over Los Angeles County. Increasing
southerly swell will create hazardous surf conditions at the
coasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...03/218 PM.

Quiet sensible weather anticipated for the rest of today and
Friday. Temperatures will mostly be in the 70s to mid 80s, which
is a several degrees below normal. There is a small chance of
light rain across the Central Coast tonight and tomorrow morning
as a broad trough digs into Oregon and northern California. Marine
layer clouds are expected each night into morning, but coverage
will be patchy.

Upper level winds with the trough have boosted our onshore flow,
resulting in elevated seabreezes across the coastal areas and
gusty southwest winds for the Antelope Valley. Sundowner
northwest winds across southwestern Santa Barbara County are
expected again this evening and overnight, and a Wind Advisory has
been issued. Sundowner winds will likely weaken to below advisory
levels for Friday night, but will remain gusty.

Hurricane Marie is likely to follow a west-northwest trajectory,
keeping the storm well south of the California Coast. Impacts
will be possible for the region over land starting Saturday, when
a small increase in temperatures and humidity is expected.
Temperatures will still be near normal, but the humidity may
contribute to some additional heat discomfort. By Saturday night,
there will be a slight chance of showers focused over Los Angeles
County. PWATs will shoot up on Sunday as Marie gets close enough
for moisture to stream in to the region from the southwest along
the bottom edge of the trough. The greatest chance for any rain
will be on Sunday. Chances for rain for each county will be as
follows: Los Angeles County (40-50% chance), Ventura County
(25-50% chance), Santa Barbara County (10-30% chance) and San Luis
Obispo County (10-20% chance). There will also be a 5-15 percent
chance of thunderstorms focused over Los Angeles County Sunday
afternoon. Rain totals are expected to be light, generally between
a trace to around 0.25 inches. Local areas up to 0.5 inches will
be possible, but not common. The greatest impacts from Marie will
be at the coasts, see the Beaches Discussion below for surf, rip
current, and coastal flooding details.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/232 PM.

Marie is favored to linger well off the coast to the southwest of
the region into mid next week. Thus Monday through Thursday,
moisture may be transported into region as Marie breaks down.
Sporadic slight chances of showers will continue each day, and
humidity is likely to remain elevated. However it should be noted
that Tuesday onward, there is a lot of uncertainty in the upper
level pattern. The GFS and EC break from each other significantly.
The GFS favors a trough dipping down in Central California, which
would bring cooler temperatures and likely some fairly breezy
southwest onshore flow. The EC shows the 4-Corners high pressure
extending out to include SoCal, which would bring warmer
temperatures and even the chance for monsoonal mositure out of the
southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1833Z.

At 1747Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2300 ft deep with a weak
inversion up to 4400 ft with a maximum temperature of 17 C.

Patchy marine layer is likely to return tonight, with moderate
confidence in cig heights and low confidence in timing. There is
a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs developing between 06Z-16Z Fri at
KSBA, KOXR and KCMA. Otherwise there is a 20% chance of VFR
conditions through the period at KBUR and KVNY.

High confidence in KWJF and KPMD.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of cig arrivals tonight
may off by 2 hours. Cigs may bounce between BKN012-BKN025. Good
confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of cig arrivals tonight
may off by 2 hours. 20% chance of cigs falling as low as BKN008
at times.

&&

.MARINE...03/234 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will be common each afternoon and
night for the offshore waters of the Central Coast for the
foreseeable future. Compared to the next 4 days, winds should be
strongest through tonight, with also the highest chances for SCA
conditions nearshore.

For the western portion of Santa Barbara Channel, SCA conditions
are likely this evening, but the chances decrease through the
weekend. All of other waters should stay below SCA.

Tropical moisture will approach the area Sunday through at least
Tuesday. While unlikely at this point, there is a 5 to 10 percent
chance of a thunderstorm over the coastal waters, highest south of
Point Conception. A large south swell will also impact the area,
causing increased currents and surges in the vulnerable harbors.

&&

.BEACHES...03/246 PM.

The range of swell and surf outcomes have tightened, with peak
south swell associated with Hurricane Marie likely in that 5 to 8
foot range. With moderate periods of 12 to 14 seconds, surf
heights on exposed south-facing shores should be of similar
height (5-8 feet). Some spots might see larger waves (like
Malibu). The Santa Barbara South Coast will be largely protected
from this swell, but there are some small windows of southeastly
and southwesterly energy that could cause boosts in the waves.
High Surf Advisories are now in place for Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties, with Beach Hazards statements (a step below high surf
advisories) in effect for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
Counties. With huge crowds expected at the beaches for the Labor
Day holiday, the emphasis for these statements is to alert the
public to be extra careful in and near the ocean.

High tides will also be increasing through early next week. Due to
a variey of reasons, the actual observed tides have been running
6 inches above predictions for sometime now. The south swell will
likely enhance that enhancement. As a result, high tides should
exceed 7 feet by Monday. Adding large tides like that with the
south swell will result in a moderate risk for coastal flooding
over the vulnerable south-facing shores. Areas of most concern
include Avalon, Long Beach (Alamitos Peninsula), Malibu, and
Point Mugu. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued as well for
Los Angeles and Ventura Counties where the best combination of
tides and waves will occur, but Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
Counties could also see some isolated issues.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM
      PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday morning
      through Tuesday evening for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...RK
BEACHES...RK
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox