312
FXUS66 KLOX 060603
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1103 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...05/709 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue for the
next several days over the coast and valleys with slow, if any,
clearing at the coast. Cooler than normal temperatures are
expected through the end of the week, then a warming trend will
develop for the weekend and through next week, especially away
from the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...05/744 PM.

***UPDATE***

Little change in the forecast compared to previous couple of
nights, with a deep marine layer and strong onshore flow, expect
low clouds to move well inland overnight. Due to slightly higher
heights aloft, the marine layer should be slightly shallower
tonight, but overall this will be only a minor difference. Low
clouds will move over the coastal areas and coastal valleys, with
a 40% chance of covering the Santa Clarita Valley. Patchy drizzle
will again be possible across the area, during the late night to
mid-morning hours. Good clearing is expected for most areas except
for along the immediate coast.

As for winds, gusty southwest to westerly winds are affecting some
areas, especially the interior passes and canyons into the
Antelope Valley, thanks to the strong onshore gradients. The LAX
to Daggett gradient is +8 mb this evening and winds are gusting 30
to 40 mph in the Antelope Valley. Temperatures on Friday will be a
few degrees warmer for most locations, especially interior areas.
The coastal plains will see little change, with highs in the 60s.
Away from the coast expect highs in the 70s to 80s except up to
the mid 90s for the far interior valleys, such as the AV, Cuyama
Valley and the SLO interior.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak upper low over the Bay Area is expected to be nudged
westward Friday and out over the Pacific Friday and through the
weekend as a stronger trough drops into the Great Basin and
northern Rockies. This will have a couple of impacts locally. The
one most people will notice will be warming temperatures as
heights/thicknesses rise in response to the upper low moving
farther west. The marine layer depth will in turn decrease with
earlier clearing times in most areas. A moderate to strong onshore
flow may prevent stratus clearing from some beaches, especially
Ventura and southern Santa Barbara Counties as the onshore flow to
the north remains quite strong (>5mb). Otherwise, high
temperatures are expected to rise 2-5 degrees each day through the
weekend with highs in the mid 90s in the warmer valleys by Sunday.

The second impact will be decreasing chances for afternoon
convection over the mountains as there will be less moisture and
instability to work with.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...05/120 PM.

No significant changes to the 4-7 day forecast. One additional
day of warming Monday with 500mb heights up to around 591dam which
could push warmest valley highs close to 100, but not quite
enough for heat advisories. A shallow marine layer will confine
stratus to just the coastal zones.

A weak trough will return to the West Coast Tue-Fri for a modest
cooling trend. Inland areas will likely remain several degrees
above normal at least through Wednesday, then dipping slightly
below normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0603Z.

At 0536Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4700 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in all remaining TAFs. For the coastal sites,
cigs may scatter in and out frequently before settling in for the
night. Afternoon VFR transitions may not occur for coastal sites
with the transition, and may occur for coastal sites without. There
is a 20% chance of LIFR cigs at KPRB, and equal chances VFR conds
prevail through fcst pd. There is a 20-30% chance of LIFR conds
at KSBP, KSBP, and KSMX.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. cigs may scatter and reform
through 08Z before settling in for the night. Intermittent IFR
cigs (007-009) are possible through 18Z Fri. There is a 30%
chance of a VFR transition 18Z Fri-03Z Sat. No significant east
wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat transitions may be
off by +/- 2 hours.

&&

.MARINE...05/758 PM.

Typical northwest to west winds are expected this weekend,
especially across the waters south of Point Conception. There is a
30% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds across western
portions of the Santa Barbara Channel Fri afternoon and evening.

There is increasing chances for SCA winds across the waters
around Pt. Conception, Northern Channel islands, and down to San
Nicolas Saturday (40%) into Sunday (60%). Short period choppy seas
are likely nearshore.

Next week will be characterized by increasing chances and coverage
for SCA winds across the outer waters, and seas building towards
SCA levels mid-week and beyond. Confidence is low (seas) to
moderate (winds).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Lund/Rorke
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox