986
FXUS66 KLOX 241707
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
907 AM PST Sat Jan 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...24/838 AM.

A dry pattern is expected for the next several days except for
possible drizzle this morning. Temperatures will remain below
normal through Sunday before a warming trend begins Monday. Breezy
Santa Ana winds will return Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will
climb to 4 to 8 degrees above normal for the latter half of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...24/902 AM.

***UPDATE***

A rare deep marine layer in January with cloud tops approaching
5000 feet generated some drizzle from Santa Barbara to LA. Some
areas even had light measurable rain including Redondo Beach and
parts of the San Fernando Valley.

However, the clouds are rapidly eroding as another offshore flow
episode develops today. High res models indicate northeast winds
should develop before noon across the LA Mountains and interior
LA/Ventura valleys, then eventually to the Ventura County coast
and adjacent coastal waters tonight, including the Channel
Islands. Offshore gradients are expected to reach 4-5mb by Sunday
morning and may need some low end wind advisories by tonight,
though wind support aloft is pretty weak.

Moderate offshore flow is expected to be here through at least
Tuesday, though upper support will weaken each day so the
strongest winds (and only real chance for advisories) will be
tonight into Sunday morning.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak inside slider is passing down the CA/NV state line. The
weak lift from this trof has deepened the marine layer to over
3000 ft. This combined with onshore flow and a weak eddy has
brought low clouds to all of the csts and vlys. In addition the
low clouds have driven deep into the mtn passes and are even over
the Grapevine area of I-5. Low clouds also cover most of the SLO
and SBA counties interior. Offshore trends and subsidence behind
the trof should bring decent clearing in the afternoon although
some areas may not clear until mid afternoon. The foothill areas
may see some drizzle as well due to the extra lift provided by the
orographics. Cool air assoc with the trof will move into the
interior where max temps will fall by about 8 degrees. The rest of
the area should see little change, although the Central Coast may
see some warming if the low clouds clear out by noon.

As is almost always the case a Santa Ana wind event will develop
in the wake of the inside slider passage. The latest forecast
shows a little stronger offshore push (3 to 4 mb) and some upper
support so low end advisory gusts are possible. The offshore flow
should keep the low clouds away and it will be a mostly sunny day.
Max temps will react accordingly moving up 3 to 5 degrees compared
today. Even with the warming max temps will come in 1 or 2 degrees
below normal.

Dry SW flow will set up over the area on Monday. The offshore flow
will weaken to about 1 mb. This will likely not be enough to keep
the coastal low clouds at bay, especially over srn LA county and
western SBA county. Skies, otherwise, will be partly cloudy due to
some mid level clouds moving in overhead. Max temps will rise
another 1 or 2 degrees and this will bring most area to or a
degree above normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...24/301 AM.

A ridge will be over the state on Tuesday with 574 dam hgts. There
will also be 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow which will produce a light
Santa Ana. At this time it does not look like there will be any
advisory level winds. There will be a few degrees of warming and
most cst/vly temps will end up in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
which is about 3 degrees over normal.

Low confidence remains for the rest of the xtnd forecast as the
mdls are struggling to resolve some energy coming in from the NW.
The EC is much more energetic and brings a full on cut off low to
the west of the area. Most of the rest of the solutions just have
trofs which are further to the north. There are enough ensemble
members from the more dynamic EC to bring a slight chc of light rain
in for the Central Coast during the day. The more likely scenario
is just for a deep marine layer with plenty of morning clouds
covering the csts/vlys and some mid and high level clouds in the
afternoon. Cooler temps are likely no matter what mdl verifies.

Still not the best of mdl agreement for the Thu/Fri time period
but the most likely outcome appears to be weak ridging with weak
offshore flow bringing mostly clear skies and a warming trend.

Both the AI-GFS and AI-EC are dry through the 1st week of Feb,
save for the small chance of light rain next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1122Z.

At 1012Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4300 ft with a temperature of 9 C.

Good confidence in desert TAFs and moderate confidence in the
rest. Clearing times for cst/vly TAFs may be up to 2 hours later
than fcst. There is a 20 percent chc of drizzle 12Z-17Z at cst/vly
sites.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds could arrive as late
as 20Z. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds could arrive as late
as 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/906 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today
through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. However, for PZZ676 there is
about a 40% chance of gusts between 20-30 kts on Sunday morning
as easterly winds push off the coast and across the zone. By
Thursday the northern outer waters of PZZ645 could begin to see
10` seas but confidence in the overall wind pattern driving that
is low.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast with winds and seas expected to remain below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. From Ventura to Santa Monica,
there is about a 40% chance of SCA-level northeast winds Sunday
morning, but the seas will remain around 5`. Otherwise, winds and
seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...jld
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox