Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
518 FXUS65 KLKN 062019 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 119 PM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * This afternoon there is a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms along and south of the US-50 corridor * Warming trend through Tuesday * Shower chances decrease for the weekend * Precipitation chances increase across Northern Nevada early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 113 PM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday The upper level low over coastal central California will continue to influence central Nevada as a stalled boundary will serve as a focus for moisture aloft to generate a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and the evening across the US-50 corridor and points south. While overall chances are low at about 10% to 30%, a few storm have formed in northern Nye and far southern White Pine counties. Hazards will include brief heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and a few lightning strikes. Otherwise High pressure to the north of the upper low will keep northern Nevada under NW flow aloft which should keep any moisture for storms limited to central Nevada today. Highs Friday afternoon will range in the upper 70s to upper 80s with a light west to NW winds at 5 MPH to 15 MPH for northern NV, while similar temperatures and light SW to south winds of 5 MPH to 15 MPH will be possible for central NV. Overnight lows tonight into Saturday morning will drop into the upper 40s to upper 50s under mostly clear skies. Saturday, the upper low will weaken some but keep its position over coastal central California, and the upper ridge to its north will become a bit more assertive over Nevada as height rises overspread the State, and shifting the boundary further south and dropping precipitation chances. Depending on how far the boundary shifts showers and storms will be possible again for central Nevada, but. Overall chances will be limited to 10% to 20% with the best probability of seeing a storm occur, will be at the far southern extent of our CWA, being along and south of US-6. With drier air filtering in. High temperatures will be warmer for Saturday as highs range from the low 80s to low 90s, with westerly winds of 5 MPH to 15 MPH with a few gusts to 25 MPH possible. .LONG TERM... A ridge of high pressure will build northwestward across the Silver State this weekend. High temperatures both Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 90 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Sunday, June 8th, 2025: Winnemucca - 100% Battle Mountain - 100% Carlin - 97% Elko - 96% Tonopah - 95% West Wendover - 90% Eureka - 80% McDermitt - 80% Spring Creek - 45% Ely - 25% A trough of low pressure will progress southeastward across Southern Nevada Monday, resulting in a 10-20% probability of showers, mainly in Northern Nevada. An Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will approach the coast of Northern California Tuesday. There should be enough atmospheric instability and moisture well ahead of this trough of low pressure to support a 20-30% probability of showers and thunderstorms in Northern Nevada. The trough of low pressure will progress eastward across Northern Nevada Wednesday. This will result in an increase in rain chances to 30-40% in Northeastern Nevada. Cyclonic flow aloft will persist Thursday into next Friday. Slim rain chances will stick around in Northern Nevada Thursday into next Friday. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will remain well above seasonal values Monday afternoon. A downward temperature trend is expected Tuesday through next Friday. Be that as it may, maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada next Friday afternoon will be two to four degrees above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR condtions will prevail at KEKO, KWMC, KBAM, and KENV through at least the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms should develop in the vicinity of KELY and KTPH this afternoon. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. These thunderstorms will dissipate by 03Z this evening. AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications. && .FIRE WEATHER... A 15% to 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible for central Nevada this afternoon and evening for locations along and south of US-50. For N NV zones conditions will be quiet with light winds and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be warming through the week with daytime highs reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s, although generally westerly winds look to remain on the light side with speeds of 5 MPH to 15 MPH with a few gusts up to 25 MPH possible. After a quiet weekend, precipitation chances look to return for the first half of the week as the upper low to the west finally moves onshore and through the Silver state, once again chances will be low but a 15% to 35% chance for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms will be possible area wide for the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Wednesday. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98/87 AVIATION...87 FIRE WEATHER...98