931
FXUS65 KLKN 312018
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
118 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 116 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

* Active pattern continues for northern and western Nevada.

* Isolated to scattered mix of wet and dry thunderstorms possible
  for Elko, and Humboldt County. Isolated, mostly dry
  thunderstorms possible for Eureka, Lander, and western White
  Pine Counties this afternoon.

* Low chances for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms for northern
  Elko county for Friday into the weekend.

* Breezy winds and low relative humidity will keep elevated fire
  weather conditions for central Nevada through the weekend.

&&


.UPDATE...
Issued at 116 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

No updates are planned for this afternoon.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Little change to the upper pattern as
the flow remains sluggish at best. Large upper level ridge remains
over the central US with the ridge axis extending northward to
Alberta Canada. Meanwhile the highly tilted upper trough over the
northern Sierra is trying to drift NE into Oregon and Idaho trying
to find a way east. Thursday, the upper trough will extend
farther east then it has been, with the trough axis paralleling
the NV/ID border. allowing mid level moisture, and better lift to
spread into Elko county, leading for a 10% to 40% chance for
isolated to scattered mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Coverage
of storms may even extend south into Lander, Eureka, to even far
northern Nye counties Thursday afternoon, however storms that form
there will have a higher probability of being dry as the higher
PW values will be concentrated near the trough axis. Friday into
Saturday, the upper trough drifts north out of NV and storm
chances fall to 10% to 20%, also on the downturn will be mid level
moisture as storm modes will favor more dry thunderstorms. Sunday
still looks that it will be a day of transition, as the upper
pattern finally gives. The upper ridge is forecast to split, with
the southern piece shifting SW over Arizona, While the northern
stream ridge will move east into Ontario, Canada. This will allow
westerly flow to resume over the northern US, with a new upper
trough digging into northern California Monday and Tuesday of next
week. Models do show some uncertainty in location, and strength
of this feature, so will keep the possibility of thunderstorms
returning across NW NV below 10% at this time. Models do agree
though that the upper trough looks to be out of the area by
Wednesday of next week. Temperatures for the period look to be
well constrained thanks to afternoon convective build-ups and a
few storms. Highs look to range from the upper 80s to upper 90s
across Nevada with day to day variation depending on cloud
development. For overnight lows look for temperatures each night
to fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains for a
low 10% to 40% probability of isolated to scattered mix of wet and
dry thunderstorms across Elko and Humboldt Counties, as well as
isolated, mostly dry thunderstorm chances for Eureka, Lander, into
far northern Nye Counties, Thursday afternoon. Although the exact
coverage of thunderstorms, as well as the ratio of wet to dry
storm mode remains slightly uncertain.

There is high confidence in a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated,
mostly dry thunderstorms across northern Elko County for Friday
and Saturday afternoons, although exact coverage of storms remains
uncertain.

There is moderate confidence of elevated fire weather conditions,
with breezy winds and low afternoon surface humidity levels,
across central and northern Nevada for the forecast period.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions forecast to persist through Friday for all
terminals, light to breezy variable winds of 5KT to 15KT with
gusts to 25KT during the afternoon hours. Low 10% to 40% chance
for VCTS for KWMC, and KBAM, KEKO, and perhaps KENV for Thursday
afternoon. KELY and KTPH will see breezy SW winds of 10KT to 15KT
with a few gusts up to 30KT possible, as well as some convective
build-up during the afternoons, but will remain dry.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions continue across central Nevada
this afternoon with southwesterly wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph
along with minimum afternoon relative humidity around 15% or
less. The higher end gusts will again be within zone 425, though
look to reside just below red flag criteria. Afternoon breezes can
be expected across central Nevada again tomorrow, with breezes
looking to spread north into portions of northern Nevada beginning
Saturday. That said, main concern across northern Nevada will
continue to be afternoon thunderstorms. Storms this afternoon will
be situated more broadly across northern Nevada with storms
covering all northern Nevada zones. Atmospheric moisture profiles
favor isolated to scattered storms with a mix of wet and dry storm
modes within zone 437 and the wetter storms look to be focused
across the western half of the zone. Isolated and dry
thunderstorms will be present further to the east and south.
Maintaining isolated dry thunderstorms in the forecast as far
south as northern Nye County this afternoon, including most of
zones 425 and 427. Though progs maintain borderline atmospheric
moisture content and the feeling is that cumulus buildups and
virga will be the main fare across the central Nevada zones today.
Though an occasional lightning strike cannot be completely ruled
out. Thunderstorm activity looks to retreat north Friday and be
confined to zones 437, 438, and primarily the northern halves of
424, 469 and 470. Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated.
Storm coverage indicated to shift further east Saturday afternoon
with isolated dry activity situated primarily in and near Elko
county. Significant areal coverage of thunderstorms not expected
Sunday as the more ideal atmospheric moisture profiles migrate
north of the Nevada state line. Bit of uncertainty Monday as an
upper level shortwave trof and attendant surface cold front
potentially impact the forecast area.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...84