589
FXUS65 KLKN 060915
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
215 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A 30% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of
  far northern and east-central NV

* Breezy conditions this afternoon and early evening

* At or just below average temperatures will continue through the
  next several days

* Dry conditions are expected Monday through at least Thursday

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Nevada remains under southwesterly flow aloft as a large upper
level trough over coastal Oregon tried to push against the
subtropical upper level ridge over the southern plains. This upper
trough will slowly push through the Pacific NW and into the
inter-mountain west through Wednesday. The main impact from this
trough will be from the winds as the pressure gradient helps drive
breezy conditions across eastern and central Nevada as SW winds
rise during the afternoons to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH
possible. Winds father west will be slightly lighter at 10 to 20
MPH with gust up to 30 MPH possible. The next impacts from this
system will be to keep temperature on the cool side through Monday
with high in the mid to upper 70s, before a quick warm-up Tuesday
and Wednesday get temperatures back into the upper 80s for Late
week into the start of the following weekend as the upper trough
departs and the upper ridge tries to shift back west. Models which
were once hopeful for precipitation thanks to moisture from
Hurricane Marie which will be well of shore of the Baja Peninsula,
but in line with the SW flow aloft. Have kept trending drier as
any moisture from Marie looks to stay across southern Nevada this
week. As for the trough, the best moisture looks to stay north
into Oregon and Idaho. Overall that leave a low chance for showers
and thunderstorms Sunday across far northern Nevada. While
another low chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible for SE White Pine county with a few storms reaching as
far north as the Ruby Mountains. Chances for storms and showers
looks to remain between 10% and 30% mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours Sunday. The next chance of showers or storms
looks to be Thursday through Friday as more moisture from Marie
rides along the periphery of the upper ridge which will be
building back toward the southwest at this time. After Friday
Model diverge significantly as the upper pattern looks to return
to a typical summer type upper ridging, or the possibility of a
second upper trough pushing through the Pacific NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence cooler than normal temperatures
continuing through Tuesday.

There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across northern and
eastern portions of the CWA.

There is low confidence for the long range forecast as model
solutions show a high degree of divergence for the upper pattern
after Friday.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites today and tonight.
West to SW winds with peak gusts in the 25-35kt range this
afternoon, strongest at KELY. Increasing clouds late this morning
and afternoon with a 30% chance of thunderstorms at KELY and KENV.
Winds and thunderstorm chances diminish by late this evening. Dry
and storm-free on Monday with much lighter winds.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly sunny early this morning. Clouds increase across much of
northern and east-central Nevada this afternoon where there is a
25% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the early evening
hours. Breezy conditions this afternoon. Strongest winds with
gusts to around 35 mph are expected across zone 425 today, though
RHs in this zone will be well above critical levels. Zone 424 and
most of zone 427 will be storm-free today, and as such experience
some of the lower RHs. Fire weather conditions will be elevated in
these two zones through the afternoon and early evening hours due
to breezy winds and low RHs.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96