154
FXUS64 KLIX 311032
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
532 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day
  through the week as an active weather pattern sets in across
  the local area.

- While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two
  storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong
  to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy
  rain. Waterspouts and/or brief/weak tornadoes will be possible,
  mainly through today.

- Tropical activity over the gulf will need to be watched as a
  cyclone may form later today. If so, local impacts should remain
  mainly over marine areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Very compact tropical system at roughly 215 miles due south of New
Orleans this morning. These type of systems can develop rapidly
due to their small size so its possible that it can deepen enough
to bring it to cyclone status later today since all variables are
hospitable for its development. The system has no immediate
impacts expected inland on this side of the state but as it moves
WNW, it will eventually have impacts for the west side. Marine
areas will be the only real impacts locally and most if not all of
that will be well offshore. The system will provide a continued
weakness over the area with onshore flow keeping precip numbers
elevated today and this higher coverage should remain through much
of this week as a deep layered tropical flow should continue. The
majority of this week will be a rather diurnal pattern playing
out with daytime storms and not a lot of activity overnight inland
and a temporal opposite of that for marine areas. The next two
systems that would highten rain/storm chances are still embedded
in this deep easterly flow and timing of those are still intact.
These can easily be seen in any sat imagery with the first being
just east of the Florida east coast and the second at around 28N
72W. The second one is the most questionable at this time and is
stationary at the moment. Models want to bring it closer to the
east coast of Florida by Tue then slow it to a stall as it feels
the east coast trough. Then what occur with the remnants of Dolly,
does it assimilate with this disturbance or does it remain
seperate? The answers to these will eventually be solved, but for
now, they are valid questions. The area off the east coast of
Florida becomes quite conducive for development over the coming
days. So, to see something eventually develop over that area would
not be surprising.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The overall thinking in the extended portion of the forecast
hasn`t changed much with an active setup through the week.
However, noticed some indications last night and there is
definitely a trend in the medium range guidance and associated
ensemble means towards the pattern changing as we move into next
weekend. This shift is towards a more typical late summer setup
with the ridge building and more centered of the plains. Thus a
drier and warmer forecast especially late next weekend and heading
into the first full week of September. With much of the forecast
focused on the current system just south of our coast and another
possible tropical wave moving in around the middle part of the
week along with a lower confidence forecast for Friday and through
next weekend we will stick with the latest NBM. This still has
above normal PoPs for much of the area both Friday and Saturday
but then we see PoPs start to drop.

The main key in the extended forecast is the evolution of the mid
lvl ridge. B late Thursday The ridge will be dominating much of the
Mid MS Valley across the southern Appalachians while the ridge axis
stretches from northwestern/north-central Mexico across the TN
Valley and into the Atlantic off of the Carolina coast. Then
beginning overnight Thursday and especially Friday the ridge begins
to strengthen to our northwest while still wrapping back around over
the southeastern CONUS. This could be a little worrisome as we could
see our next tropical wave, which is expected to move into the
north-central and northwestern Gulf mid week, possibly get trapped
under/blocked by the ridge somewhere over eastern TX and western LA.
If and where that occurs it could become a potential heavy rain
producer for the back half of the week. And this heavy rain could
fall over some areas that possibly just saw heavy rain with the
current tropical disturbance just to our south. That is not all, as
the remnants of TS Dolly is expected to continue to move west and
will begin to move into the Gulf late this week, possibly overnight
Friday and early Saturday. However, there is a lot of uncertainty of
with this.

As was mentioned last night this forecast is highly dependent on the
location of the ridge and timing of the next wave.  We will need to
closely monitor these waves over the next few days. There is a good
chance that we will have quite the QPF gradient over the region with
northeastern 3rd/half being influenced by the ridge more thus
leading to much lower rainfall totals possibly less than an inch
total for the next 7 days. However, the southwestern 3rd/half just
far enough on the periphery and seeing more impacts from our
tropical disturbances and thus possible seeing multiple days where
multiple inches of rain could fall and total rainfall could easily
be over 3 to 5 inches in localized spots. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

RA, TSRA and CIGS will develop once again today, but should be
mainly near the coast. The lowest levels for cigs will be in MVFR
range intermittently trading places with VFR. RA and TSRA will be
timed in prob groups through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

As a surface low moves west of the area, it will keep winds from a
southerly direction which will remain through the week. Stay
informed on any tropical headlines concerning the surface low over
the northern gulf for the next few days. Small craft will need to
exercise caution in waters along and west of Port Fourchon through
tonight, otherwise, winds should remain near or below 15 knots
outside of thunderstorms for the remainder of the week. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will remain possible each day with winds and
waves higher in and near this activity.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE