Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
138 FXUS64 KLIX 121042 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 542 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 506 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 - High temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 90s today through Sunday with heat index values approaching 105 degrees. This is our first heat spell of the summer, so please use caution if outdoors for an extended period of time. - A weak cold front will slowly move into the area during the first half of next week leading to higher shower and thunderstorm chances. This has correlated to a higher Flash Flood risk starting Monday with a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for Flash Flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The stacked ridge from the Atlantic will remain firm over the area through Sunday. The cold front currently moving through Oklahoma/Missouri this morning will stall over central Arkansas later today then move back north and stall again as another round of forcing moves it back SE again starting Sat. This front will slow to a crawl by late Monday as it moves into the northern tier of counties/parishes. Mid level and sfc flow will provide a deep flow of tropical moisture around the periphery of the ridge from the western gulf up to the front then eastward along the front. Before all this occurs, stronger supression from the ridging across the area will cause a strong sub inversion to set up trapping moisture in the lowerst layers and heating that layer in these few day preceding the front. This will cause our heat index values to move up during this time frame to around 105. There are some hints at a few localized areas getting to around 108, mainly over marsh areas with very little wind. Sunday may have to be added to the heat fest as well depending on cloud cover as the front and associated storms get closer. Heat will then not be an issue by Monday and days following, but the rain looks to be. PW values reach around 2.25" during next week and anytime this amount or higher moisture is available, it is almost always due to a deep tropical airmass. With the frontal boundary as a focus, there should be no shortage of sh/ts developing continuously and training of some of this activity is almost a certainty. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Upper ridging will be over the eastern Caribbean and along the Pacific Coast on Monday night. A deep trough over eastern Canada will produce zonal to northwest flow over the northern Gulf Coast at that time. A weak frontal boundary is likely to be over southwest Mississippi at that time. Multiple shortwaves will move through the base of the eastern trough during the workweek next week, producing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values will be well above the 90th percentile (1.9 inches) for much of the week, and potentially topping out at the top of the chart (2.25 inches) between Monday and Wednesday. There is only very little improvement in surface moisture on Thursday to 1.9 inches. This will continue the potential for very heavy rain each day through at least Wednesday, with the heaviest amounts and greatest areal coverage likely to occur Monday night and/or Tuesday across northern sections and Tuesday night/Wednesday south of Lake Pontchartrain. Several inches of rain could fall on one or both days, and we may be looking at Flood Watches at some point down the road for early next week. Areas that receive storms on a particular day problably will only top out in the mid 80s, while dry areas get pretty close to 90. Overnight lows wil be in the 70s, and potentially near 80 in a few spots. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 MVFR cigs and vis possible this morning for a short time at MCB, all other terminals should be VFR for most of the day and night. There will be some PROB30 groups to time where TS coverage will fit best as sh/ts develop along cbrz/lake brz collisons around and over south shore terminals this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 A broad area of high pressure will remain centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida through the weekend and into early next week, promoting a persistent south-southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots across the coastal waters through early next week. These winds will produce seas of 2 to 4 feet in the open Gulf waters and 1 to 2 feet in the sounds and tidal lakes. Afterwards into next week, a stalling front will increase rain chances and winds through at least the middle of the week. The tropical airmass that will be over the area next week will provide conditions conducive for waterspout activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE