839
FXUS64 KLIX 261900
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
200 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 154 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Well above average high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower
  90s will occur this week. Heat index values will climb into the
  upper 90s.

- The threat for thunderstorms, some possible strong to severe
  will continue this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Not quite as busy this morning as yesterday but once again we had
the remnants of an MCS slide southeast into the area this morning
and provide a touch of strong storms. Most of the impacts were
marine related as the first 3k ft abv the sfc was quite stable.
The marines areas didn`t quite have that problem and because of
that we did see numerous wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph over the
tidal lakes and MS Sound.

The first forecast question is do we get any more convection this
afternoon or evening? Most CAMs earlier indicated the potential for
scattered convection to start to develop NNW to SSE across the river
parishes and into northwestern portions of the CWA. After looking at
a few things the feeling is that may be a struggle. First thing is
we will see rising hghts as the ridge to our west continues to build
and into the area. We do have another remnant outflow boundary laid
up NNW to SSE and it is much sharper/defined today than yesterday.
However behind that boundary it is more stable and was struggling to
warm up to and given the lack of redevelopment yesterday and the
slightly later start today that suggest we will likely struggle. On
WV there is some lift spilling into the area this afternoon and
perhaps that will be enough to get a few storms to develop but as of
right now not anticipating much more than isolated storms.

The next two days there is really only one way to describe...HOT.
Yes it will be rather hot both Monday and Tuesday and a few records
may be in danger, Monday could actually be the hottest of the two
days for a few places even though low lvl temps look to be warmer on
Tuesday. The ridge is already beginning to build across TX and will
build into the Lower and Mid MS valley later today and tonight. It
will continue to build over the northwestern/north-central Gulf and
southern half of the Lower MS Valley through Tuesday morning however
a s/w will move across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley
tomorrow and tomorrow night helping to erode the northern portions
of the ridge. As the next piece of energy comes across the southern
Plains and into the northern half of the Lower MS Valley Tuesday
and Tuesday night the northern side of the ridge will continue to
erode. This will be accompanied by convection to our north and
that could allow a decent bit of cirrus to impact the temps that
day. Even though h925 temps could be as high as 23/24C Tuesday and
the mid lvl hghts may be around 588/589 which is easily in the
top 10% of h5 hght measurements for this time of the year that
increase in cloud cover may have some decent impacts on temps.
That won`t be the case for Monday as we should be high and dry
with sunny skies. Highs currently are forecast for most of the
area to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday and similar for
most places Tuesday however the low level temps would suggest
quite a few more lower 90s. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

We have said this often the last few days and will say it again
the consistency and continuity of the medium range guidance has
been rather great. All the main players GFES, ECS, and CMCE along
with their respective op runs are in fairly good agreement with
the pattern through next weekend. What are they saying, well the
next two days and maybe even Wednesday may be the last few hot
days for a little while. The pattern will become a little more
active with increasing rain chances and more than anything a
rather substantial cool down possible for this weekend. With that
there were no adjustments made by WPC to the latest NBM over our
region.

This will begin to shift come Wednesday. This may be more of a
transition day as we will still be warm but the northern half/3rd
may be in a better spot to see some rain that afternoon. The ridge
having already seen some serious suppression will get shoved down
well into Mexico and the southwestern Gulf by Thursday providing
mainly zonal flow over the area into the weekend. There will also be
a few disturbances in the northern stream working across the across
the northern and central portion the CONUS aiding in driving a
slightly cooler more dense airmass south. A boundary will work
towards the area Thursday and slowly drift towards the Gulf possibly
completely sliding into the Gulf by Saturday. Even with the zonal
flow it looks like this boundary will get to the coast. This
provides a couple things. First it will possibly help to be a focus
for a few rounds of rain but it will also cool us off. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Overall most terminals are in VFR status however HUM just dropped
to MVFR due to Cu leading to cigs around 3k ft. The biggest
question is if we can get convection to redevelop but the
confidence in that happening is low with the most likely location
to see some redevelopment being BTR. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will remain in place
through the middle of this week. Seas will remain well below any
hazardous limits at 1 to 3 feet through the period. As we move
into the back half of the week we will see a weak cold front drift
south towards the coast and could even sink into the coastal
waters this weekend. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB