538
FXUS64 KLIX 151052
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
552 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 451 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- A drier pattern is expected through at least the weekend. The
  primary concern will shift toward increasing heat, with heat
  indices potentially approaching advisory criteria Friday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The upper low has now shifted west over the Red River valley in
north TX/southern OK. It will eventually sink into west TX over
the next few days. The 850mb low is now near the Arklamiss area
and is evidently shearing the environment between them in sat
imagery. This will set up two areas of heavy rainfall
possibilities, neither of which will be here. One of these will be
over south TX and the other a few hundred miles all around
Memphis. The 850 low moves north after today bringing some relief
to that area as well. We will be between these two with a ridge
building from the gulf to Amarillo TX via New Orleans. We can now
look to see if this pattern continues, so enter stage right a TUTT
low currently over western Cuba. Normally we would look to the
gulf for deep moisture, but it does usher in dry air as well in
cycles. This will be one of those times. The TUTT low will
eventually move into the eastern gulf and will place itself over
the center of the 850mb high. This type of pattern is the direct
opposite of a rainmaker and will set up a very dry pattern but
will also transfer us into a much warmer scenario with temps
moving into the mid 90s then even higher as we tack on about a
degree a day as we move into the weekend. There will still be a
storm or two each day through the week, there just won`t be high
chances and definitely not widespread like they have been lately.
Those that do occur, will still have the capability of being
strong/severe as they will not have many other cells to compete
with for energy. The TUTT low and mid/low level high will lock
storms north and east of where the two are centered. This should
keep the water works over the SE CONUS and eastern gulf by the
end of this week. This should also cause a moderate precip
gradient to exist between here and Florida by the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Extended forecast continues to advertise hot and mostly dry
conditions. Medium range models still have some minor disagreements
in the details and that could have some implications on temps but
overall the forecast remains mostly unchanged and confidence is
growing that we will finally see our first real shot of heat this
Summer.

Ridge builds down to the southeast over the southeastern CONUS and
into the Atlantic but will have enough of an influence to keep
convection down to a minimum this weekend. But this will also lead
to LL temps warming with h925 temps up to around 25/26 C leading to
highs in the mid 90s maybe even trying to top out into the upper
90s. That said there may be just enough moisture and mesoscale
aspects like the sea/lake breeze to get a few isolated storms to pop
over the northeast each afternoon but those will be few in
number.

Heading into next week we will see the L/W trough take shape over
the east coast and drop into the northeastern Gulf. This could
start to slide into our area some. At the same time the large
ridge over the Rockies and just north of the 4 corners will slide
a little to the east while the axis extends to the southeast
towards the northwestern Gulf and into the Lower MS Valley. The
ridging will try to impinge enough into the area to keep the
convection potential down while also allowing the heat to build a
little more. LL temps may warm another degree which should place
the entire area firmly into the mid 90s. NBM is starting to really
hammer upper 90s for locations east of I-55 and along I-12 in
SELA and across coastal MS. I do have a little of a problem with
that though as we typically need a synoptically driven sfc wind
out of the north or northeast to get coastal Ms to get that hot.
Synoptically high pressure will be dominating the region and thus
winds will be highly influenced by diurnal fluctuations which will
allow the seabreeze to likely push through GPT and PQL by midday
and thus probably keeping those sites from reaching the upper 90s.
That said this weekend and into next week it is beginning to look
highly likely that some heat products will be needed for portions
of the CWA. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR will be the rule for this taf cycle at all terminals. HUM
will be the only site with high enough precip chances to show any
lowering of flight restrictions which will be timed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and direction will vary
today then become more predominantly southerly as high pressure
builds over the eastern Gulf through the week. The number of storms
will be lower through the remainder of the week, but any that do
develop will cause wind direction and speed to become erratic and
strong.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE