112
FXUS64 KLIX 190837
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
337 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

After a good soaking along with some severe wx, we are ready for a
break. A back door trough will be moving through today, this can
actually be seen in radar returns this morning just to the NE of the
area. We are calling this a trough since there is only weak air mass
change, and the only change is found in PW values as they drop from
around 1.4" this morning to around 1" by this afternoon. This won`t
stay around too long and we will be back to ruturn flow Monday. The
only thing of concern will be fog this morning as the boundary
moving in and conditions ahead of this boundary are ripe for
radiation fog. There is only one variable that is not wanting to
play along and that is a northerly wind that is supposed to be all
the way to the coast by daylight today. The wind is not strong, but
since it is bring a degree or two drop in dew pts, there is concern
that fog will not form until right at sunrise(sunrise surprise).
This is by far the hardest fog to fcast, but if this looks to be the
case just before sunrise, we will bring up a dense fog advisory for
inland areas south of the boundary. Since this boudary will be at
the coast tonight, fog should not be an issue tonight(famous last
words).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm and humid will be back for the next several days but then again
it is the start of summer, so these conditions are not unusual. The
only thing concerning concerning weather will be by the end of the
week. But these MCS features look to stay to the north of the area
by late Thu into Fri. It is possible that some of this could make
its way to central LA/MS. But as far as it getting here, this does
not look to be the case at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Some inland terminals could see very short duration IFR due to vis
this morning around sunrise, but the remainder of this cycle should
be VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Storms will slowly move south and east and dissipate today from the
outer waters. Easterly and westerly winds across the frontal
boundary will also become southerly to start the new work week.
Southerly winds will remain the common theme for the rest of the
week and no other systems are expected to impact the coastal waters
through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  65  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  92  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  89  73  90  73 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  90  69  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  91  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE