Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
004 FXUS64 KLCH 311812 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 112 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weakness aloft and an advancing frontal boundary will work together to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms into Saturday - Due to very high moisture there will be a potential for excessive rainfall and a Marginal Flash Flood risk into Saturday. - The increase in shower activity and cloud cover will likely keep the heat in check into the weekend with no heat advisories planned at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 An upper level trough noted across the forecast area this afternoon with the cyclonic motion of the showers seen on radar around it. High moisture values still look to be hanging around with PWAT at or above 2 inches for the forecast area. The moist airmass and weakness aloft will keep shower activity going off and on for the remainder of the afternoon, although instability looks lower than yesterday that may keep any storm in check. It should also keep the heat in check and therefore have cancelled the heat advisory that was in effect today. The weakness aloft will hang around into Saturday, along with the very moist air mass with PWAT remaining above 2 inches and mean layer relative humidity above 70 percent. We will also see a surface frontal boundary sag south into the forecast area that will help focus the expected widespread shower and storm activity. Also, with the high moisture and the upper level trough overhead, shower activity is expected to redevelop again overnight and toward the morning getting an early start to the rain on Friday, then activity possible at almost any time come late Friday night into Saturday with the surface front becoming involved. With the high moisture content and relatively lighter winds in the mid levels for slow movers, any sort of instability that gets storms going, will have the potential for torrential downpours and thus a small risk for flash flooding, especially any poor urban drainage areas. With the cloud cover and convection, expect air temperatures to be kept in check that will lower apparent temperatures and therefore a lower heat risk with no heat advisories planned during the period. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The frontal system is expected to make it to the coast on Sunday and then stall across the coastal areas and eventually washing out early next week. Some drier air is expected behind the frontal system at the surface and aloft and this will help reduce rain chances in places that receive the drier air. At this point, central Louisiana and upper southeast Texas have a better chance of seeing the drier and thus the lower rain chances. Also, with lower dewpoints, looks like the heat will also be kept in check with heat index values near normal. Rua && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Will be looking at for off and on developing showers and a few storms for the remainder of the afternoon through about 01/02z. Will go with just VCTS for now at all terminals. Away from the convection, expect VFR conditions. Fair and stable conditions through the night, although with an upper level low and moist airmass, shower activity is expected to begin for daybreak and will add VCSH for KLCH/KBPT around 01/11z then 01/14z at the remaining terminals. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Weak pressure pattern at the surface will keep mainly light and variable winds and low seas through Saturday. However, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected with winds and seas higher near that activity. A surface frontal boundary will approach the coast on Sunday. This will bring a mainly light westerly wind with low seas into early next week. A moist air mass is expected south of the front over the coastal waters that will keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A moist air mass and a disturbance aloft will keep high chances for rain in the forecast through Saturday. With the high moisture daily min relative humidity values will stay above 60 percent. A surface front will move to the coast on Sunday. Some drier air will move in behind the front, lower rain chances and the min relative humidity values, especially for upper southeast Texas and central Louisiana. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 95 73 91 / 30 70 50 50 LCH 76 94 75 91 / 20 70 60 80 LFT 76 92 76 91 / 30 70 50 80 BPT 76 94 75 91 / 20 60 60 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07