Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
967 FXUS64 KLCH 062003 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 203 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flow off the Gulf will continue a fetch of warm moist air, and possible near-record high temps will continue into at least Saturday. - Extensive frontal system sags into the ArkLaTex on SAT and SUN bringing with it widespread showers and thunderstorms. - Slight Risk for severe and flooding weather SAT afternoon and overnight. Risk decreases SUN with only a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for flooding rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Another relatively quiet day is underway across the region, with temperatures well above climatological normals in the 80s and breezy to occasionally gusty southerly to southeasterly winds under mostly cloudy to overcast skies. A few widely isolated showers are also occurring. Aside from winds gradually diminishing overnight, similar conditions are expected to persist into Saturday morning. An upper trough currently progressing into the central CONUS will continue advancing eastward toward the region, gradually eroding the broad upper ridge over the western Atlantic. As this occurs, the probability for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the weekend. The area has been placed in a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall. The primary severe hazards are expected to be damaging wind gusts and hail, though tornadoes cannot be ruled out. While storms are forecast to remain fairly progressive, periods of heavy rainfall and potential training may result in localized flash flooding. Frontal progression is expected to slow somewhat Saturday night into Sunday morning, allowing showers and thunderstorms to linger into Sunday afternoon. Although severe storms are not currently anticipated on Sunday, the continued heavy rainfall threat has prompted a Marginal Risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for that day. Beyond the weekend, a cutoff low is forecast to develop off the Baja California coast before progressing eastward toward the Gulf Coast region during the early to mid week period. This feature will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. While model guidance differs somewhat on the timing and evolution of this system, the general consensus suggests the low will eventually become absorbed into the broader flow by midweek, allowing conditions to gradually improve in our area before the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 MVFR conditions lingering and expected to prevail due to low CIGs. Elevated and gusty southerly to southeasterly flow is ongoing and also expected to prevail, however we could see some temporary tapering tonight before it picks back up tomorrow morning. While the probabilities are not high enough to warrant TAF mentioning, there could be some widely isolated showers this afternoon and tonight. The probabilities will increase tomorrow with the approach of a disturbance. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Tightened pressure gradient between weather system in the CenUS and ridge to the east has and will keep onshore winds elevated. Today starts a period of active weather as a series of upper disturbances push a stationary surface front towards the north Gulf this weekend. From Saturday thru the start of next week, expect periods of showers and thunderstorms as well as increasing onshore winds in response. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Moisture will remain in place over the region with a continuation of strong southeast winds between storm system in the central US and high pressure over the northeast Gulf. A few isolated showers will be possible over southeast Texas today as the high begins moving east and increasing moisture surges up the Texas coastline. The front slowly sags into the northern Gulf early Saturday and will bring about a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Rainfall totals from 1 to 3 inches will be possible across southeast Texas and central and southwest Louisiana with locally higher amounts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 84 64 75 / 30 80 80 80 LCH 68 81 66 76 / 20 60 80 80 LFT 71 82 68 79 / 20 60 70 80 BPT 68 81 66 79 / 20 70 80 80 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87