Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
867 FXUS64 KLCH 142311 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 611 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak frontal boundary will combine with deep tropical moisture to increase precipitation chances this afternoon through Tuesday. These storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could pose a flood risk. - Another round of heavier rain will be possible during the second half of the week in association with the low pressure off the coast of Mexico. - High temperatures the first half of the work week may be slightly below normal due to higher than normal rain chances and cloud cover. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Conditions continue to deteriorate this afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread across the CWA. Temperatures remain quite warm, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s, while dewpoints in the 70s are yielding heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Although these values remain below Heat Advisory criteria, they are still sufficiently high to warrant caution for those spending extended periods outdoors. At the surface, an area of high pressure extends across the eastern and central Gulf, maintaining persistent southerly flow across the region. This steady influx of Gulf moisture has kept PWAT values elevated; however, an additional increase is expected as a plume of deep tropical moisture associated with a weak area of low pressure meandering across northern Mexico begins to move toward south Texas. This system will bear close watching, as both rainfall amounts and temperatures will be highly dependent on the eventual track of the low and its associated moisture plume. Current guidance indicates PWAT values will remain above the 90th percentile and approach or possibly exceed daily maximum climatological values from today through the middle of the work week. Combined with a frontal boundary expected to stall across the region, these conditions will support a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing high rainfall rates and localized flash flooding. As a result, WPC has placed portions of the forecast area in a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) to Slight (Level 2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall each day from today through Thursday. Focusing specifically on Monday and Tuesday, there remains the potential for an upgrade to a Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Risk. Additionally, a Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed. Confidence in either outcome will depend heavily on how convection evolves today and the amount of rainfall received. From Wednesday into Thursday, the aforementioned quasistationary front is expected to gradually dissipate. While this should result in somewhat lower overall precipitation coverage, ample residual moisture will remain in place, along with the weak low forecast to track northward along the Texas coast. Consequently, although overall coverage may decrease, additional rounds of heavy rainfall will remain possible through the middle and latter portions of the week. This area of low pressure continues to be monitored by NHC. Tropical development is not expected during the next 48 hours, and current outlook indicates a 30 percent chance of development during the next seven days, primarily during the midweek period as the system potentially reemerges over the northwestern Gulf. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain possible across portions of the Gulf Coast States. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 |Showers and storms are anticipated during the period. This will produce lower vis and ceilings at times. Winds will be south to southwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Consistent onshore winds between 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail today and Sunday with little to no precipitation expected through Sunday afternoon. Precipitation chances will increase significantly tonight through Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary stalls near the coast. Onshore winds will increase Wednesday and Thursday to between 20 to 25 knots as an area of low pressure moves up the Texas Gulf Coast. Seas will increase, in turn, to 3 to 5 feet. In addition to the increased winds, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal waters both Wednesday and Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 A weak frontal boundary will move into the region and stall near the coast during the first half of the week. This front is not expected to produce a wind shift, with winds generally staying southerly, but it will act as a focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms from today through most of that work week. Widespread soaking rains are anticipated. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87 AVIATION...05