848
FXUS63 KLBF 121827
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
127 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday
  afternoon and evening, with a Fire Weather Watch in effect.

- Fire weather concerns are expected to persist Thursday across
  the western Sandhills, with gusty northwest winds and low
  humidity expected.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Friday through
  Sunday, with highs potentially reaching the upper 80s to
  lower 90s across portions of the area.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend
  as a system tracks into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Tonight...a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM CDT across
central Nebraska. Northwest winds will diminish during the early
evening hours as surface high pressure builds into central and
eastern Nebraska. Radiational cooling with clear skies and light
and variable winds, will lows reaching the lower 40s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...surface low pressure will deepen
across Wyoming and Colorado on Wednesday, bringing a tight surface
pressure gradient across western Nebraska, lasting into Wednesday
night. Strong southerly winds will develop by late morning at 20 to
30 mph with gusts to 45 mph during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Moisture return will be limited, with dewpoints only in
the mid 30s. This southerly flow will also lead to warm air
advection and a return to above normal temperatures in the low
to mid 80s (warmers across the west). With the gusty southerly
winds and low humidity, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
Wednesday afternoon and evening for Fire Zones 204, 206, 210,
219 and 209. Details below in the fire weather discussion. A
strengthening LLJ will promote gusty southerly winds overnight,
as high as 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph at times. This will
keep lows mild in the low to mid 50s.

Thursday and Thursday night...southerly flow continues Thursday
morning across the east, with rising dewpoints into the afternoon
along and ahead of a surface trough into the mid to upper 40s, with
much lower dewpoints in the upper 20s to mid 30s across western
Nebraska. A pronounced dry line is expected, between Highways 61 and
83. West of the dry line, warm and dry downslope flow is expected,
with potential for gusty northwesterly winds across the Panhandle
and western Sandhills. Expecting very low humidity values as the dry
line tracks east, with afternoon humidity in the 10 to 15 percent
range. Will continue to see well above average temperatures across
the forecast region, with highs 85 to 92. Near critical fire weather
conditions are possible across western Nebraska Thursday afternoon,
and will continue to monitor.

As for any shower or thunderstorm development along the dry line,
while moisture certainly appears available, a cap will likely
inhibit development along the dry line. Forecast soundings indicate
strong capping across the region, which may inhibit convection.
However, there may be a few hours with a weaker cap, allowing a few
cells to form. Given the low confidence, will keep PoPs at a slight
chance for areas east of Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Friday, building mid-level heights ahead of an upper level trough
developing to the west will support warmer and drier conditions
across the area. Forecast 850 mb temperatures rising into the 20 to
25C range, around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year,
combined with west-northwest 700-850mb flow promoting downslope
warming and the dryline remaining east of the area, will support
well above normal temperatures Friday afternoon. Current NBM
guidance shows highs in the lower 80s north to upper 80s south.
However, this may be too cool given the overall synoptic setup, as
the NBM 90th percentile indicates highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s across much of the area, which appears more reasonable at this
time. With the dryline east of the area, relative humidity values
will likely fall below 20 percent Friday afternoon. While forecast
wind speeds currently appear light enough to limit fire weather
concerns, the signal for downslope-enhanced westerly flow suggests
winds may ultimately trend stronger than current guidance indicates.
Any increase in winds or gusts would result in a higher fire weather
threat across the area. This will continued to be monitored over the
next several forecast updates. Lows Friday night into Saturday
morning will remain mild, generally in the low to mid 40s.

Saturday, the developing northern stream trough will dig into the
western United States, promoting broad westerly flow across the
region. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will strengthen east of the
Rockies through the day, resulting in increasing southerly flow and
moisture advection across the Plains. A subtle disturbance is
forecast to move east Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening,
accompanied by a cold front. Ahead of the front, strengthening
southerly flow may once again support temperatures rising into the
mid 80s to lower 90s, which is well above normal for this time of
year. By late Saturday afternoon into the evening, confidence is
increasing that the approaching cold front and nearby low pressure
system will provide sufficient lift for shower and thunderstorm
development across the region. There is also an increasing signal
for some strong to severe storms. Current NBM probabilities show a 40
to 60 percent chance of surface-based CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg,
along with 30 to 40 knots of effective bulk shear. At this time, the
SPC day 4 outlook places the slight risk area southeast of the
forecast area, where the greatest severe threat currently appears to
reside. In terms of fire weather concerns, low relative humidity
values and gusty winds appear possible Saturday afternoon. However,
uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front, leading
to lower confidence in how much overlap will occur between the
strongest winds and lowest humidity values.

Sunday, the trough across the western United States is forecast to
deepen and move into the four corners region, supporting strong
southwest flow aloft. In response, a stronger surface low is
expected to develop across eastern Colorado. Ahead of this low
pressure system, deeper surface moisture will surge northward into
the region with strengthening southerly flow. Some guidance even
suggests dew points in the lower 60s may return to portions of the
area. The signal for strong to severe storms continues to increase
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. NBM probabilities for surface-
based CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg range from 70 to 90 percent across
eastern portions of the forecast area into central Nebraska,
combined with strong mid-level flow. The SPC Day 5 outlook currently
highlights the southeast portions of the CWA in a slight risk area.
Despite the increasing severe weather signal, considerable
uncertainty remains regarding frontal placement, system track, and
overall timing. However, confidence is increasing that this system
may provide the next best opportunity for widespread beneficial
precipitation across the area given the strong ensemble signal.

Early next week, the storm system is expected to eject east of the
region, bringing cooler and drier conditions in its wake. The
overall pattern may become more active again by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Mainly SKC across western and north central Nebraska the next 24
hours. Northerly winds with gusts up to 25KT will continue
through late afternoon, becoming light and variable this
evening. Southerly winds return and increase to near 17015G25KT
after 16Z Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Wednesday...surface low pressure will deepen across Wyoming and
Colorado, bringing a tight surface pressure gradient across western
Nebraska, lasting into Wednesday night. Strong southerly winds will
develop by late morning at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph during
the afternoon and evening hours. Moisture return will be
limited, with dewpoints only in the mid 30s. This southerly flow
will also lead to warm air advection and a return to above
normal temperatures in the mid 80s near and west of Highway 83.
With afternoon humidity in the upper teens, the strong southerly
winds will create the potential for large fire growth.
Therefore a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Wednesday
afternoon and evening (from 1 PM CDT until 1 AM Thursday). This
is for areas near and west of Highway 83, and includes Fire
Zones 204, 206, 210 and 219. Areas further east, will remain in
elevated to near critical. A strengthening low level jet will
promote gusty southerly winds overnight, as high as 20 to 30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph at times. Humidity will be poor, improving
only to 55 to 65 percent by daybreak.

Thursday...southerly flow continues Thursday morning across the
east, with rising dewpoints into the afternoon along and ahead of a
surface trough into the mid to upper 40s, with much lower dewpoints
in the upper 20s to mid 30s across western Nebraska. A pronounced
dry line is expected, between Highways 61 and 83. West of the dry
line, warm and dry downslope flow is expected, with potential for
gusty northwesterly winds across the Panhandle and western Sandhills.
Expecting very low humidity values as the dry line tracks east,
with afternoon humidity in the 10 to 15 percent range. On top of
that, will continue to see well above average temperatures across
the forecast region, with highs 85 to 92. Near critical fire
weather conditions are possible across western Nebraska Thursday
afternoon, and will continue to monitor. Humidity recover will
also be poor Thursday night, only from 45 to 60 percent west of
Highway 83.

Friday...fire weather concerns continue with elevated to near
critical conditions. Afternoon humidity will be very low at 10
to 15 percent much of the area. Winds looks to be the limiting
factor, with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph
possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
Wednesday night for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg