515
FXUS63 KLBF 160810
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
310 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to moderate confidence in some isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms this evening with a heavy rain and flooding
  potential.

- Moderate confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again
  late Monday afternoon and evening with a slight severe risk
  and continued heavy rain concerns.

- The active pattern continues into midweek, with daily threats
  for showers and thunderstorms persisting through late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the region
tonight. These showers will slowly weaken as they move eastward into
more stable air, completely exiting by sunrise. The main concern
with these showers will be heavy rainfall leading to localized
flooding although some small hail and briefly stronger winds could
also be possible. At this time, not anticipating widespread
flooding, but some area creeks and streams could see rises leading
to some localized minor flooding, along with some flooding of
ditches and low lying areas across areas that have seen some heavy
rain the past few days.

Surface high pressure will begin to nudge into Nebraska from the
north on Sunday leading to a mostly dry forecast to end the weekend.
However, diurnal heating will allow for some isolated convection
over the Panhandle and higher terrain by late afternoon before
pushing eastward into the Sandhills by the evening. However, there
is a potential that some storms could intensify overnight as the low
level jet increases. At this time the severe risk remains low, but
would not be surprised if a stronger storm or two develops with
gusty winds being the main threat, although some small hail could be
possible in some of the stronger storms. Being primarily diurnally
driven, the severe potential should quickly diminish after sunset
(late evening) with some showers continuing into Monday morning.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Monday. As any
lingering showers finally push out of the region by mid-morning a
mostly dry forecast is expected throughout the day. A return to
isolated to scattered thunderstorms arrives by late afternoon
lasting into the evening as a frontal boundary stalls across the
region. Ample instability will exist across southwest and into
central Nebraska which should support severe storms across the
region. As with previous days, hail and strong winds will be the
primary threats with these storms with some heavy rain possible as
well. Storms will persist through the evening hours before pushing
south and east by early Tuesday morning.

As far as temperatures go, highs will remain below normals through
early next week ranging from the upper 70s to the upper 80s both
today and Monday. Overnight lows will remain near normals, dropping
into the upper 50s to low 60s through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Strong and persistent west-northwest flow continues Tuesday and into
late week, with the daily threat for showers and thunderstorms
continuing as well. This strong flow aloft combined with dewpoints
in the middle to upper 60s leads to strongly sheared and at least
moderately unstable conditions across the area each afternoon into
late week. Confidence is highest in convection on Tuesday afternoon
and evening, as a cold front begins to push across the area from
north to south. This surface front looks to provide a focus for
scattered thunderstorm development, and the overlap of favorable
deep layer shear and instability points to an initial supercellular
storm mode. These initial discrete/semi-discrete updrafts will pose
a risk for large hail, before a propensity for upscale growth along
the encroaching cold front leads to the damaging wind threat
increasing with time.

Additional strong to severe storms appear possible nearly each day
as we head into late week, though mesoscale details remain unclear
and will drive the coverage and magnitude of any threat each day.
Trends will continue to be monitored with respect to this. By
Friday, upper ridging will begin to amplify across the Rockies and
begin to slowly move east into the Plains into this weekend. This
will lead to temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s,
along with lessening precipitation chances across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across western and
southwest Nebraska through sunrise this morning, with periods of
MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. After these storms
exit the area, VFR conditions are expected to prevail into
tonight across western and north central Nebraska.

Light and variable winds this morning become southerly this
afternoon, at 5 to 10kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown