Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
972
FXUS63 KLBF 231720
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1120 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures are expected Monday and
  Tuesday, with above normal temperatures lasting through at
  least Saturday.

- Strong, gusty winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind
  gusts to 35 mph are possible.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday through
  Friday with the combination of gusty winds and low humidity.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A weak mid level trough was moving southeast across the region
early this morning. High cloudiness across western Nebraska with
clear skies to the north and west of the area. A weak surface
trough extended from eastern South Dakota through central
Nebraska into southwest Kansas. Winds across western Nebraska
were light southwest to light and variable. Temperatures were
mostly in the upper 20s to around 35 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Snow melt was significant across western and north central
Nebraska yesterday. With temperatures from 3 to 5 degrees warmer
than forecast yesterday, went toward the warmer guidance for
highs today in the upper 50s to near 60. Will see a leeside
trough deepen along the Front Range today, to bring a westerly
wind 10 to 20 mph across the western Sandhills and north central
Nebraska. This will aid in mixing the warmer temperatures aloft
to the surface. Skies will remain sunny until later afternoon
when an increase in high clouds begins to move in. Partly cloudy
tonight in high clouds. Lows not as cold only falling into the
lower 30s.

Monday, even milder, as a west northwest wind increases in
response to a disturbance crosses North Dakota into eastern
South Dakota. This will bring stronger H85 winds to around
30kts which will promote deeper mixing from near 600mb to the
surface. Went near the NBM 50th percentile for highs from 64 to
68 degrees. These highs will range from 18 to 25 degrees above
normal. Also nudged the northwest winds up to near the 75th
percentile, at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, mainly west
of Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

On Tuesday, an upper trough will move from MT and WY into the
Dakotas and western Nebraska. This will bring an increase in
westerly winds across the area ahead of a cold front, which
should move into northwest Nebraska by early evening. Another
mild day with most locations reaching the upper 60s. Westerly
winds of 20 to 35 mph across the western Sandhills and north
central Nebraska. With afternoon humidity as low as 22 to 32
percent combined with gusty winds, elevated fire conditions are
expected with grassland fuels becoming receptive to burning.

With the passage of the cold front and upper trough, a slight
chance for light rain Tuesday evening in the north central into
central and eastern Nebraska.

Cooler behind the front on Wednesday with highs from 50 to 55.
Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 35 mph.

An upper ridge across the Western U.S. on Thursday will persist
into Saturday, with the Northern and Central Plains in northwest
flow aloft. The cooler temperatures will remain well to our east
across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Eastern U.S. Highs will
range mostly from the mid 50s to around 60 each day with dry
conditions through the period. Elevated fire weather conditions
are possible Thursday and Friday due to the potential for gusty
winds and low humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Inherited TAF forecast, is underestimating the degree of high
cloudiness drifting into northern Nebraska ATTM. Decided to
increase cloud cover today for both the KLBF and KVTN terminal
forecasts with scattered and broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL
respectively. Winds will increase 1500 to 2500 FT AGL overnight
with LLWS possible at both terminals between 04z and 12z Monday.
Winds at these levels will be west-northwesterly and
northwesterly at 35 to 40 KTS with SFC winds under 10 KTS.
Broken cloud cover is expected at the KVTN terminal on Monday
with ceilings around 15000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler