631
FXUS63 KLBF 221737
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly quiet weather through the morning and early afternoon.
  Another chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and
  overnight.

- Beneficial rainfall expected with near daily chances for rain
  and thunderstorms Wednesday through early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Upper level analysis and water vapor satellite imagery reveal mostly
zonal flow aloft over western and north central Nebraska this
morning, with a developing trough over the Intermountain West. At
the surface, a low pressure system is located over western Iowa,
with a cold front tracking through south central Nebraska. High
pressure is noted behind the front over western Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

With high pressure in place over western Nebraska, the weather
remains fairly quiet this morning and afternoon. Skies remain mostly
clear through the early afternoon, with highs climbing into the 70s
across the region. With these warm temperatures and afternoon
humidity values in the 20 to 25 percent range, elevated fire weather
conditions are possible across western and north central Nebraska.
However, winds remain light today, generally under 15 mph.

As a cold front sweeps across the northern Plains this evening,
another round of showers is possible across western and north
central Nebraska. This is a very similar set as last night, where
any showers will be elevated in nature, with little precipitation
expected. Steep lapse rates and inverted V soundings will again
support gusty and erratic winds with any developing showers. There
are another few pockets of elevated CAPE again, so would not
completely rule out a few of these showers developing into
thunderstorms.

By Wednesday, the upper level trough is expected to be more
pronounced over the Intermountain West, bringing southwesterly flow
aloft. At the 700 and 850 mb layers, southerly flow will provide a
transport for Gulf moisture into the region. A surface boundary
stalls over central Nebraska, which will provide forcing for
continuing showers and thunderstorms across western and north
central Nebraska. As of now, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across western and southwest
Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with wind and hail the primary
concerns. Current CAM guidance is currently split on where
convective initiation occurs on Wednesday afternoon, with some
solutions initiating over north central Kansas and others remaining
over southern Nebraska. Current guidance suggests around 1,000 to
1,500 J/kg of surface based CAPE across southwest Nebraska, so any
initiating cells should have some energy and moisture to work with.
Showers and thunderstorms then continue overnight, which will kick
off the beginning of beneficial rainfall across all of western and
north central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The upper level pattern remains mostly in place, with the upper
level trough remaining over the Intermountain West. The surface
boundary remains stalled out over central Nebraska. This set up will
support near daily rain chances across western and north central
Nebraska through the end of the week. As the trough remains in
place, a shortwave is expected to eject late week, tracking another
surface system across the region this weekend into early next week,
which brings yet another round of precipitation to the region. With
this active pattern, current precipitation forecasts calls for
around a half inch to amounts greater than an inch across most of
western and north central Nebraska. With these showers, temperatures
remain near seasonal through the weekend, though a passing warm
front Sunday may bring another round of warmer temperatures Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. There will
be some mid level clouds that will move in late afternoon and
evening as an isolated chance for showers moves in. Showers will
be isolated, but any shower that does move over the area could
potential have strong, erratic winds, very little rainfall is
expected so don`t expect visibility impacts. Rain chances will
increase late morning with the best chance of rain showers
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Gomez