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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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972 FXUS63 KLBF 231720 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1120 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much above normal temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday, with above normal temperatures lasting through at least Saturday. - Strong, gusty winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind gusts to 35 mph are possible. - Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday through Friday with the combination of gusty winds and low humidity. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 A weak mid level trough was moving southeast across the region early this morning. High cloudiness across western Nebraska with clear skies to the north and west of the area. A weak surface trough extended from eastern South Dakota through central Nebraska into southwest Kansas. Winds across western Nebraska were light southwest to light and variable. Temperatures were mostly in the upper 20s to around 35 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Snow melt was significant across western and north central Nebraska yesterday. With temperatures from 3 to 5 degrees warmer than forecast yesterday, went toward the warmer guidance for highs today in the upper 50s to near 60. Will see a leeside trough deepen along the Front Range today, to bring a westerly wind 10 to 20 mph across the western Sandhills and north central Nebraska. This will aid in mixing the warmer temperatures aloft to the surface. Skies will remain sunny until later afternoon when an increase in high clouds begins to move in. Partly cloudy tonight in high clouds. Lows not as cold only falling into the lower 30s. Monday, even milder, as a west northwest wind increases in response to a disturbance crosses North Dakota into eastern South Dakota. This will bring stronger H85 winds to around 30kts which will promote deeper mixing from near 600mb to the surface. Went near the NBM 50th percentile for highs from 64 to 68 degrees. These highs will range from 18 to 25 degrees above normal. Also nudged the northwest winds up to near the 75th percentile, at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, mainly west of Highway 83. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 On Tuesday, an upper trough will move from MT and WY into the Dakotas and western Nebraska. This will bring an increase in westerly winds across the area ahead of a cold front, which should move into northwest Nebraska by early evening. Another mild day with most locations reaching the upper 60s. Westerly winds of 20 to 35 mph across the western Sandhills and north central Nebraska. With afternoon humidity as low as 22 to 32 percent combined with gusty winds, elevated fire conditions are expected with grassland fuels becoming receptive to burning. With the passage of the cold front and upper trough, a slight chance for light rain Tuesday evening in the north central into central and eastern Nebraska. Cooler behind the front on Wednesday with highs from 50 to 55. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 35 mph. An upper ridge across the Western U.S. on Thursday will persist into Saturday, with the Northern and Central Plains in northwest flow aloft. The cooler temperatures will remain well to our east across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Eastern U.S. Highs will range mostly from the mid 50s to around 60 each day with dry conditions through the period. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday and Friday due to the potential for gusty winds and low humidity. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Inherited TAF forecast, is underestimating the degree of high cloudiness drifting into northern Nebraska ATTM. Decided to increase cloud cover today for both the KLBF and KVTN terminal forecasts with scattered and broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL respectively. Winds will increase 1500 to 2500 FT AGL overnight with LLWS possible at both terminals between 04z and 12z Monday. Winds at these levels will be west-northwesterly and northwesterly at 35 to 40 KTS with SFC winds under 10 KTS. Broken cloud cover is expected at the KVTN terminal on Monday with ceilings around 15000 FT AGL. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Buttler