888
FXUS63 KLBF 291659
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal to near seasonal temperatures this week.

- Precipitation chances start Tuesday and last into the
  weekend, with the best chances appearing to be Wednesday night
  into Thursday.

- Marginal risks for severe weather exist Tuesday and Wednesday,
  though uncertainty remains in timing and scope.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery show a upper level trough
across the Central Plains, with the upper level low over eastern
South Dakota. West of the upper level trough, a low amplitude ridge
is observed, with another shortwave trough off the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, a low pressure system is located in
southwest Minnesota. High pressure is noted over western Nebraska
and the Dakotas, with a stationary front on the leeward side of the
Rockies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The low amplitude ridge will begin to track over western Nebraska
this morning, bringing a temporary break from rain chances. A
generally pleasant day is expected, with widespread temperatures in
the 70s across the region, with areas in northern and north central
Nebraska in the upper 60s.

The upper level pattern becomes fairly active as the ridge moves out
of the area. By Tuesday, an upper level trough begins to trek across
across Wyoming, with a surface low pressure system generating off
the lee of the Rockies. A surge of low level Gulf moisture advects
into Nebraska, though the better moisture advection appears to be to
the eastern portion of the state at this time. A cold front
associated with the low pressure system will provide the catalyst
for showers and thunderstorms across the region Tuesday afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal risk for severe
weather across portions of north central Nebraska for the storms on
Tuesday, however, at this time the greater severe weather threat
appears to be to the east of the North Platte CWA. Some question
still remains on timing for convective initiation and convective
mode, but will be worth keeping a close eye on for the short
term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Wednesday, another shortwave trough builds over Wyoming, bringing an
area of positive vorticity advection aloft. Another surface system
develops, bringing another shot of precipitation across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This system seems to be the next best
chance for precipitation, and in fact, ensemble guidance remains in
strong agreement on most of the area receiving measureable
precipitation (90-100% chances). Questions remain on the exact
amounts. While measurable precipitation looks almost certain, the 3
major ensembles (Canadian, ECMWF, and GEFS) show a 20-40% chance of
amounts exceeding one half inch. However, there is still a chance of
thunderstorms, which may lead to some locally heavier amounts. Also
worth watching will be the severe weather potential on Wednesday.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued another Marginal risk
for severe weather across southwest and south central Nebraska,
but the better chances for severe weather appears to remain to
the southeast, particularly over Kansas.

Beyond Thursday, the upper level flow takes on a zonal nature with
embedded shortwaves. Ensembles continue to show a variety of ranges
in precipitation chances, though all 3 major ensembles keep
precipitation chances around through the weekend into early next
week. As timing of these systems is refined, should have a better
handle on precipitation chances late week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High clouds will begin to increase later this afternoon from
west to east across the area. Ceilings will be in the 15000 to
25000 FT Range for both the KLBF and KVTN terminals through
Tonight. Look for clouds to thicken Tuesday morning, especially
over northern Nebraska where broken ceilings of 7000 to 12000 FT
are possible at the KVTN terminal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Buttler