Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
745 FXUS62 KKEY 070213 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1013 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Weak lower level troughing across South Florida and the Bahamas is tucked within the southern periphery of a strong Atlantic surface high centered off the New England Coast. The trough, along with earlier day time heating has resulted in nebulous flow across the Keys this evening. The environment is juiced with this evenings precipitable water coming in at 2.12 inches. CAPE was ample with little to no inhibition. Despite the weak surface flow, the environment has been capable of sustaining pockets of robust shower with embedded thunderstorm activity. Portions of the island chain, mostly in the Upper Keys, have been affected off and on. Troughing will continue to stew with a very moist environment over the Bahamas through the overnight period. This along with the more than sufficient CAPE and limited inhibition, in addition to the current upstream activity seen on radar, should result in increasing convective coverage in the Keys and surrounding waters. Will nudge PoPs up to likely for the island chain. Away from convection, surface winds should firm up slightly out of the northeast as the effects of day time heating wear off and surface troughing broadens out. Expect overnight lows in the upper 70s with dew points in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 The combination of broad ridging across the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic and a weak trough pushing westward through South Florida is resulting in light and variable breezes on Keys waters this evening. Breezes are expected to become prevailing northeasterly as the trough washes out and the effects of earlier day time heating dissipate. A wetter than normal pattern remains across the area and mariners can expect periods of scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. No changes planned for the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. With that said, a wetter than normal pattern remains across the area and may produce periods of sub VFR conditions. Away from convection, surface winds will be light and variable, becoming northeast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest