242
FXUS62 KJAX 060615
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Westerly steering flow and with a moist atmosphere (PWATs in the
1.6" to 1.9" range) will continue scattered to numerous afternoon
showers and storms across the region as the East Coast sea breeze
remains pinned fairly close to the Atlantic Coast to the East of
the I-95 corridor. Max temps will push into the lower 90s area
wide as the westerly flow pushes the heat all the way to the
Atlantic Beaches along the peak heat indices around 100F.
Scattered strong to locally severe storms still possible during
the afternoon hours with gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but
slightly warmer temps aloft should limit any widespread severe
weather threat. Best chances for any severe storms will be when
convection interacts with the East Coast sea breeze front stalled
near the Atlantic Coast and I-95 corridor. Convection will fade
with loss of heating just after sunset this evening with fair
skies overnight along with mild temps in the lower 70s inland and
mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

High surface pressure over the area through the weekend will bring
winds out of the west to southwest, helping to pull in moisture in
from the Gulf. This moisture coupled with diurnal heating will
help drive afternoon convection through the weekend. The Storm
Prediction Center has most of southeast Georgia under a marginal
risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms and areas north of
Jesup and Alma Georgia under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for
severe storms Saturday as shortwaves are expected to move through
the area, allowing for the development of stronger storms. The
main concerns with these stronger storms will be gusty winds,
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. High daytime
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows
dipping into the low to mid 70s. Early morning patchy fog will be
possible in areas that received rain each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

High pressure and moisture from the Gulf continues into the long
term, helping to keep the wet weather pattern going. Seabreeze
convergence and diurnal heating will be the main driver for the
afternoon convection. Some stronger storms will be possible as
upper level shortwaves pulse across the area. Daytime high
temperatures will be above seasonal average at the start of the
week and cool to near normal by mid week with temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 90s
over northeast Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s at
inland locations with areas along the coast staying slightly
warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

MVFR fog at VQQ this morning, along with MVFR CIGS at SSI,
otherwise mainly VFR with high clouds at the rest of the NE FL TAF
sites with light SW flow. Expect at least SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS to
develop in morning diurnal heating in the 11-15Z time frame at all
TAF sites with CIGS around 2500 ft at times. Expect at least
scattered storms to develop in the W-SW flow this afternoon and
have added TEMPO groups at all TAF sites, in the 18-22Z time frame
at GNV and 19-23Z time frame at other TAF sites for gusty winds to
25 knots and MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. Convection should fade around sunset
with leftover mid/high debris clouds through the rest of the TAF
period from 01-06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Weak low pressure situated over the Carolinas today will push off
the North Carolina Outer Banks tonight. Atlantic high pressure
ridge will be extended across the Florida peninsula for the next
several days. Prevailing southwesterly winds are expected through
the weekend. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will push
eastward across our region through the weekend, mostly during the
afternoon and evening hours. Strong to severe storms will be
possible this weekend and early next week, mainly across the
Georgia waters. Small Craft Advisory headlines are not expected
this weekend or early next week.

Rip Currents: Generally low risk of rips expected today into the
weekend as offshore flow will keep the East Coast sea breeze weak
during the afternoon hours and surf/breakers in the 1-2 ft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  92  73 /  40  20  50  30
SSI  88  76  92  76 /  40  20  50  30
JAX  92  73  94  74 /  50  20  50  20
SGJ  91  73  94  74 /  50  30  60  20
GNV  92  72  94  73 /  40  10  60  10
OCF  92  72  93  73 /  40  10  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$