044
FXUS62 KJAX 311633
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1233 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast on track for even lower coverage of storms this afternoon
as PWATs have fallen into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range and the
slightly stronger SW steering flow will keep the East Coast sea
breeze pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast, only reaching into the
I-95 corridor at most. This will lead to widely scattered coverage
of storms today, with storm motion slightly faster towards the
Northeast at 15-20 mph. An isolated strong storm with gusty winds
to 40-60 mph is still possible due to the intense surface heating
along with locally heavy rainfall as some of the convection will
run into the stationary East Coast sea breeze along the I-95
corridor during the late afternoon/early evening hours. The lower
coverage of storms will continue to support intense surface
heating with highs still into the mid/upper 90s inland and
lower/middle 90s at the Atlantic Coast with peak heat indices
around 110F again this afternoon and heat advisory will remain in
place today. Storms should push off the NE FL coastal areas after
sunset, while some isolated storms may linger across SE GA until
midnight, then mostly clear skies are expected during the
overnight hours with some patchy inland fog possible towards
sunrise, but significant fog is not expected. Low temps in the
humid southwest flow will only fall into the mid/upper 70s inland
and around 80F along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

High pressure will move further away to the southeast Friday, as a
front sinks to along the southeastern US coast. Thunderstorm chances
will increase through the day, with the greatest chances in the
afternoon over SE GA due to the proximity to the front. The Gulf sea
breeze will be dominant Friday due to the southwest flow. This will
keep the east coast sea breeze closer to the I95 corridor. A few
strong to severe storms will be possible, with greatest potential
over SE GA near the front, and along the east coast due to sea
breeze interactions.

Highs Friday in the mid to upper 90s will be common, with the
heat and humidity leading to the need for a heat advisory for all
of the area.

The front will lay out near the GA/FL line Friday night through
Saturday night. With the front across area, waves will move east
along it. These waves will enhance the convective activity which
will be present due to diurnal heating during the day Saturday.
Therefore, in addition to potential for a few strong to severe
storms, the potential will also exist for heavy rainfall leading to
localized flooding. Due to frontal convergence, chances for rain
and embedded thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours
Friday night and Saturday night.

Lows Friday night in the mid 70s will be common, except upper 70s
near the coast. Due to the position of the front, and expected
rainfall coverage, highs Saturday will range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s over SE GA to the mid 90s over NE FL. Temperatures will be
a little cooler Saturday night, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

The boundary will sink south across north FL Sunday through Tuesday,
while high pressure builds to the north northwest. Waves will
continue to move along the frontal boundary, enhancing precipitation
amounts.

The boundary is expected to weaken and lift out Tuesday night into
Wednesday as high pressure builds toward the northeast. The high
will continue to build to the northeast into Thursday.
Precipitation chances Wednesday into Thursday will largely be driven
by diurnal heating, and aided by sea breeze interactions.

The coolest day this period will be Sunday with highs ranging from
the lower to mid 80s over SE GA, to the upper 80s to lower 90s over
NE FL. A trend to more seasonal level temperatures is expected for
the rest of this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Rainfall chances still remain below 30 percent this afternoon with
convection remaining mainly isolated to widely scattered so will
keep just VCSH for all TAF sites through sunset with SW winds
around 10 knots at inland TAF sites and SE winds around 10 knots
at SSI/SGJ. Another fairly quiet night with VFR conds and only a
few high clouds and light SW winds with just the usual patchy MVFR
fog at VQQ from 07-11Z. VFR conds with a slow increase in W-SW
winds towards the end of the TAF period ahead of the approaching
frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

High pressure ridging will persist over area waters through
Friday, with the associated high passing just south of the region.
This will maintain a mostly south to southwest flow with brief
periods of exercise caution level winds during the evening hours.
A cold front approaches GA waters Friday Night and will stall
close to GA waters through the weekend. This will result in
increased chances for showers and storms this weekend, especially
for GA waters. An active pattern looks to continue into early next
week as high pressure will become centered more east of the
region.

Rip Currents: Low rip current risk through the end of the week
with surf/breakers only in the 1-2 ft range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites...

                     THU 7/31   FRI 8/1   SAT 8/2

Jacksonville, FL     102/1999   102/1999  101/1999
Gainesville, FL      100/1892   100/1896  99/1999
Craig Airport, FL    101/1999   101/1999  101/1999
Alma, GA (AMG)       102/1999   100/1999  100/2006

Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites...

                     THU 7/31   FRI 8/1   SAT 8/2

Jacksonville, FL     78/1941    82/1873   78/1953
Gainesville, FL      77/2011    77/1893   77/1896
Craig Airport, FL    79/2011    79/1999   79/2004
Alma, GA (AMG)       77/1999    77/1999   79/1999

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  96  75  91 /  20  40  50 100
SSI  81  96  79  91 /  20  30  40  90
JAX  77  99  77  95 /  20  30  20  90
SGJ  78  96  78  95 /  20  20  10  70
GNV  76  96  76  95 /  10  20  10  70
OCF  75  95  76  94 /  20  20  10  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
     237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-
     236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$