552
FXUS62 KJAX 261136
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
736 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Lowered Visibility Due to Smoke and Fog. Patchy / Areas Inland Fog
Through This Morning, Toward I-75 and Suwannee. Dense Smoke Advisory
for Wayne, Brantley, and inland Glynn Counties. Smoke

- Impacting Portions of SE GA and NE FL | Monitor Using airnow.gov

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Today

- Isolated/Scattered Thunderstorms Today, and Possibly Mid to

- Small Craft Advisory Portions Waters Late Tonight into Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances today and tonight
- Areas of smoke will continue near ongoing wildfires

Cold front currently located over northern GA will slowly drop
southward throughout the day today, reaching about the FL/GA border
by late this evening and just south of the region by late tonight.
Available moisture looks to be enough for some isolated to widely
scattered showers and t`storms to develop ahead of the boundary this
afternoon and evening, with the highest chances for convection,
especially t`storms, likely to be across northeast FL where the best
diurnal timing of instability will be, as well as along east coast
sea breeze that will push inland throughout the afternoon and
evening. Upper level support and dynamics are not overly impressive
with the frontal passage, though given some drier air entrainment
likely lingering aloft, any stronger updrafts will certainly have
the potential for some gusty downbursts in the 40-50 mph range and
perhaps some small hail, though severe weather is not expected at
this time. High temps will be very warm again today, mainly in the
mid to upper 80s.

Winds shift more northwest to northeasterly this evening and through
tonight as the frontal boundary pushes through the region and a
moderately strong surface ridge builds down the southeastern
seaboard. One noteable aspect of this flow will be a shift in the
smoke plumes from ongoing large wildfires, especially for the HWY82
and Pineland road fires in GA would will likely result in areas of
smoke approaching the I-10 corridor for at least several hours durng
the evening hours and into the start of Sunday Night. After midnight
or so, onshore flow starts to pick up, especially near the coasts as
winds pick up to the 10-15G20-25mph range for coastal areas and
parts of the St. Johns River Basin towards Monday Morning. This will
result in varying low temps across the region, as upper 50s to low
60s will be expected with the cool advection over inland GA with
mostly mid 60s for the coasts and elsewhere inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period (Monday to Tuesday night:

- Breezy along the coast, with enhanced rip current risk along the
  coast

- Generally dry and not as warm

A 500 mb ridge will build in over the area Monday into early
Tuesday, with the ridge flattening out/pushing southward rest of
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as shortwave disturbances
translate across the lower MS valley and the southeast states.
Surface high pressure ridge will build in from the northeast on
Monday which then shifts to be east and then southeast Tuesday-
Tuesday night. The cold front that moved through Sunday night
and early Monday will filter in drier air, but there may be
isolated showers possible early Monday over northeast FL, and
otherwise dry into Monday night and early Tuesday. On Tuesday,
low level flow turns southeasterly and moisture increases back
up fairly quickly based on latest guidance. PWATs may rise back
up to about 1.1 to 1.5 inches late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Both GFS and ECMWF show increased lift and the deeper moisture
moving in Tuesday night thanks to those shortwave disturbances
and a cold front moving into the southeast U.S., which will
lead to enhanced precip chances for inland southeast GA, but at
this time limited at 20-30 percent.

Northeast surface winds will be breezy on Monday along the coastal
areas with sustained winds near 15 mph gusting to near 20-30 mph.

Temperatures will be below Monday as cooler air advects in behind
the front, and rebounding higher Tuesday. Monday night/Tuesday am,
cool morning lows 55-60 inland, and around 60/lower 60s toward the
coast. Light to calm winds and mostly clear skies at times may lead
to some patchy late night and early morning fog Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday

On Wednesday, a dampening 5h shortwave trough passes through the
southeast U.S. with an associated cold front moving toward southeast
GA. The cold front will move into move through the forecast area
Wednesday night while slowing and eventually moving into central FL
area Thursday afternoon or evening. This front stalls on Thursday
night over the central FL peninsula area, then possibly pushes back
north into the northeast FL late Friday or Saturday. This occurs as
models show weak frontal wave development in the north central Gulf.

Chances for showers and a few storms exist for mainly northern half
of the area Wed and Wed night, and then for northeast FL on
Thursday, in either case is due to the frontal boundary and
sufficient airmass moisture. On Thursday night, drier air and less
dynamics will bring only slight chances of showers, at best. On
Friday, with the front south of the area, an overrunning situation
covers the region so mainly low-end chance of showers as moisture
overrides the slightly relatively cool airmass. Increased chance of
showers and possible storms on Saturday as disturbances in the mid
levels move across the southeast states.

Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday into Thursday, with a
record high or two possible Wednesday. Behind the cold front for
rest of the week it will trend near or below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
MVFR cloud decks are expected to lift by midmorning with scattered
convection developing across the forecast area, with showers and
possible isolated storms becoming more likely in the afternoon and
into this evening. Developments forming ahead of the advancing
frontal boundary are expected to disperse before the end of the
forecast period with winds shifting about to become more out of the
northeast.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure shifts east of area waters through today. A cold front
will then drop south towards the today and will cross our local
waters tonight, with low pressure along this front strengthening
somewhat off the Carolina coast by Monday. Winds will shift to
northerly on Sunday night and then northeasterly by Monday morning,
with Caution to marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
later today into tonight. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight ahead of the
boundary. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local
waters on Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front will then
approach our area from the northwest late next week.

Rip Currents:

Rip current risk will be low at area beaches today as a weaker
onshore flow is expected with surf around 1-2 ft. Rip current
risk increases Monday into Tuesday due to increased onshore
flow with risk increasing toward high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Dispersions Today And Monday
- High Dispersion Possible Wednesday

A cold front will begin to affect the area today, moving into
southeast GA from the north by late this afternoon and early evening
and then through northeast FL later tonight. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms expected late today mainly over the eastern zones.
Winds eventually turn to the northeast tonight across the area
following the frontal passage.

High pressure ridge will prevail Monday with a moderate northeast
wind flow over the region. Breezy northeast winds up to 15 mph with
gusts of 20-25 mph expected Monday, highest wind speeds toward the
coast.

High pressure will build over the area Monday night into Tuesday.

MinRH values may drop to 30-35 percent for inland southeast GA
Monday and Tuesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog this morning and
Monday morning. Chances for showers and thunderstorms today, and
again Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  60  81  55 /  20  20   0   0
SSI  83  63  72  64 /  30  30   0   0
JAX  88  63  77  60 /  30  30  10   0
SGJ  85  65  76  64 /  30  40  10  10
GNV  88  63  84  59 /  20  10  10   0
OCF  87  64  84  61 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Dense Smoke Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ136-152-153.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-
     452-470-472.

&&

$$