248
FXUS64 KJAN 312002
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
302 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Through Friday: The increased interaction of the frontal boundary
approaching from the north with the high levels of heat/moisture
is fueling greater coverage of deep convection today along/north
of the I-20 corridor. Have expanded the marginal risk to account
for the more intense convection that has developed over north
central into northeast portions of the area where steep low level
lapse rates could support strong to marginally severe wind gusts.
Farther south, drier air continues to win out and convective
coverage drops off significantly as you go south of the I-20
corridor. Friday should be the last day in the current heat event
in terms of headlines. The thermal ridge south of the boundary
will support reaching heat advisory criteria, and wouldn`t be
surprised if we see a few locations reach extreme heat criteria,
but considerable diurnal convective coverage will limit the
duration and will hold off on another extreme heat warning. Will
once again need to monitor for strong/severe wind gusts potential
during peak heating Friday.

Saturday through Wednesday: The much anticipated reprieve from
the dangerous heat is still on track as westerlies suppress and
split the subtropical ridge over our region. This will allow
temperatures/humidity to return to more typical mid summer values
and bring a much needed break from the high levels of heat stress
for the weekend through early next week. As we go into the
mid/late week, there may be some rebuilding of the ridge to our
west, but it appears the largest heat anomalies should stay mainly
to our west. Below normal rainfall is also being indicated by most
guidance with anticyclonic flow and subsidence being the primary
influences, but climatology favors decent coverage of diurnally
driven convection over east/southeast MS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites through the
much of the forecast period. Convection will again be possible
across the area through early this evening, with a cold. front
beginning to push southeast into the Delta region later today. If
observed within a site`s respected aerodrome, categories will
briefly be reduced to MVFR/IFR status due to restricted
visibilities and/or low ceilings. This activity will quickly erode
after sunset as daytime heating wanes. Winds this afternoon will
generally be from southwest between 5-8 knots, but will become
more northerly in the wake of the front`s passage overnight into
Friday morning. An isolated severe storm will be possible across
the Delta region between 19-03Z. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary concern with such storms, with hail to the size of
quarters possible to a lesser extent. Frequent lightning strikes
and heavy downpours will be likely with any of today`s activity.
Toward day break Friday morning, a brief 2-3 hour period of MVFR
ceilings will be possible as a result of low stratus developing in
the vicinity of the before mention cold front. By 16Z, ceilings
will begin improving back to VFR status. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  94  73  90 /  30  70  30  50
Meridian      74  94  73  91 /  30  70  40  60
Vicksburg     76  94  73  92 /  30  70  30  40
Hattiesburg   76  96  75  93 /  30  80  40  80
Natchez       74  94  73  90 /  30  70  30  50
Greenville    76  91  71  89 /  30  50  10  20
Greenwood     76  93  73  90 /  20  50  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     MSZ027>033-035>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

/