357
FXUS63 KIND 060607
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog possible through around sunrise

- Scattered to numerous showers and some storms will return mainly
  later this afternoon into early evening. Isolated severe storms
  possible south

- Active weather continues into Saturday with heavy rain likely
  Saturday night into Sunday

- Cooler than normal with periodic rain early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Early This Morning...

A few light showers will linger across the eastern forecast area as
an area of surface low pressure exits. Will keep some low PoPs east.
Otherwise, the main concern is fog. Areas of light fog are across
the northern forecast area, but cloud cover is extensive there.
Patchy, sometimes locally dense, fog is across the southern forecast
area.

With light winds and a lingering moist atmosphere, expect stratus
and fog to expand across the forecast area. The HRRR is showing a
good deal of dense fog developing north, but believe that cloud
cover will hamper that development. Will keep mention of
patchy/areas of fog in the forecast for now. Will also keep a close
eye on things in case conditions worsen more than expected.

This Morning into Early Afternoon...

Fog/stratus will gradually mix out during the early to mid morning.
Scattered to broken cumulus will then be around. Will keep skies
partly to mostly cloudy.

With the old surface boundary across the southern forecast area,
wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated shower develop. Will have
some low PoPs there.

Enough sunshine will be around for highs to reach the upper 70s and
lower 80s most areas.

Mid Afternoon into Tonight...

Another impulse will move east in the nearly zonal flow aloft. This
will bring forcing and will interact with the old boundary across
southern Indiana to produce scattered to numerous showers and some
storms, mainly across the southern half of central Indiana.

There remain some timing questions with this wave, but at the moment
it appears that late afternoon into early evening look to have the
most coverage of rain, mainly south. Will have chance to likely PoPs
south, with lower to no PoPs north.

Shear will increase during the day across the south and will become
high enough that some isolated severe storms may occur, with
damaging winds the primary threat.

PoPs will diminish later this evening into the overnight as forcing
exits.

Lows tonight will be from around 60 to the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Saturday Through Monday.

By Saturday morning the front that has brought active weather to the
area over the last few days will continue to remain stalled south of
the forecast area across Kentucky. This should help to limit the
rain chances across much of central Indiana with most models keeping
any QPF limited to just the southern portions of central Indiana
through the morning hours. Another upper level low is expected to
move through central Indiana Saturday night with additional
thunderstorms likely ahead of the low Saturday afternoon and
evening. Ahead of the low, stronger southerly flow will return as a
surface low undergoes cyclogenesis with good model agreement in a
period of heavy rain during the 00Z to 06Z timeframe just ahead of
the low. Model QPF varies on the exact details but a broad 0.5 to
1.5 inches is likely with a narrower swath of 2-3 inches.

A stronger upper level low will sink southeastward in the aftermath
of the Saturday system which will bring cooler air and renewed
lighter rain Sunday into Monday. There is some model differences
towards Monday as to where the jet stream will set up which will
impact where the better chances of precipitation will be. Confidence
is highest across the southern counties with ensemble probabilities
maximized towards the Ohio River.

Tuesday Through Thursday.

The upper level low will spin across the Great Lakes region into the
middle of the week which will help to keep temperatures slightly
below normal with higher than normal cloud cover. Periodic rain will
impact central Indiana but with no connection to Gulf air, amounts
will be light. High pressure begins to build going into Thursday as
the upper level low finally pushes off to the east with weak surface
winds and gradually warming temperatures to finish the work week.
Looking towards the weekend and beyond, the pattern begins to shift
more active again with above normal precipitation likely.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Impacts:

-Light showers near KIND diminishing overnight.

-IFR will overspread all sites overnight, with worse conditions
 possible at times at some sites

-More showers developing tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:

IFR ceilings will continue to spread across the sites during the
overnight. MVFR and eventually IFR or worse visibility will continue
to develop as well. KBMG will likely bounce to 1/4SM at times during
the night. Visibility near or below 1 mile is possible elsewhere
(except KIND).

Conditions will gradually improve after sunrise with VFR conditions
returning by early afternoon.

Scattered showers and some isolated convection will return Friday
afternoon, mainly for the southern sites.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...50