919
FXUS63 KIND 071101
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
701 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain across southeast Central Indiana this morning.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms late this morning and
  afternoon as a cold front passes.

- Rain ends by this evening and skies becoming mostly clear
  overnight.

- A return to prolonged dry weather mid week onward, accompanied by
  gradually warming temperatures

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Surface analysis early this morning showed southerly flow in place
across Indiana as a poorly defined cold front was found from MI,
across northern IL to Central MO. An upper level weather disturbance
was found across KY and SE Indiana, pushing northeast within the
southwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching front. Radar shows
abundant showers over SE Indiana, WRN KY and WRN TN with this
feature. Less organized precipitation was found near the cold front
over IL and MI where showers and storms were very scattered. Dew
points across Central Indiana remain very moist, in the middle 60s.
Skies were mainly cloudy across the state as these two systems were
coming together. A few breaks were found across NW Indiana.

Today...

Two continued chances for rain are expected today. The first chance
will continue to be associated with the upper level weather
disturbance currently impacting the SE parts of our forecast area.
Models suggest that the bulk of the forcing associated with the
upper disturbance will exit east of the forecast area shortly after
12Z. Given these radar trends and agreement from the HRRR, high pops
will continue to be used across the southeastern areas this morning
before tapering off somewhat later. Points west of the current back
edge of the precip, stretching from Anderson, Indianapolis to
Muncie, may see little in the way of additional precip this morning.

More pops will be needed late this morning through the afternoon for
our second round of forcing associated with the approaching cold
front. Models here show an upper trough passing through the Great
lakes with an associated surface cold front the main upper trough
axis fails to pass until late tonight, but the surface cold front
appears much further ahead with the associated forcing. Forecast
soundings remain saturated this morning within the lower levels and
by afternoon as the cold front approaches, shallow CAPE is available
with values near 1000 J/KG and pwats remain rather high around 1.50
inches. HRRR again shows shower and storm development ahead of front
late this morning and early afternoon. Thus will again focus window
of higher pops during that time. Brief heavier rains could be
possible under a few storms, however also due to the scattered
nature of the expected storms it is possible that some locations
only receive very minimal precipitation, especially in northwest
parts of Central Indiana, including Attica, Lafayette,
Crawfordsville and Rockville.

Cold air advection really does not start until this afternoon in the
wake of the cold front. Clouds across the area will still hamper
rising temperatures. Look for plenty of cloud cover today with highs
reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s before falling once winds
become NNW.

Tonight...

Models show strong ridging building across the plains states with
lee side NW flow aloft building across the upper midwest,
spilling into Indiana. This will result in the development of
strong high pressure over the upper midwest, building into central
Indiana on northerly winds. Forecast soundings show strong
subsidence and drying within the column overnight which should
lead to clearing skies. Thus a becoming mostly clear type forecast
will be used. Lows in the upper 40s to around 50 will be
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Prolonged dry weather is likely to return Wednesday onward as strong
surface high pressure dominates the area, though there is some
uncertainty to monitor early in the weekend with significant model
discrepancies in handling a quick moving upper wave.

Temperatures will briefly be near to a bit below normal Wednesday
and Thursday with highs in the mid 60s to around 70 and lows as low
as the mid 30s to low 40s. Cannot completely rule out isolated
pockets of frost in sheltered areas north Wednesday and Thursday
night, but temperatures are too borderline to include at the moment.

Guidance in general suggests the building of a relatively narrow,
high amplitude upper level ridge across the area over the weekend
into early next week, which would bring temperatures back above
normal, with highs gradually climbing back well into the 70s. Lows
would likely still be near normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s given
ongoing drought and accompanying enhanced diurnal ranges.

The only outside chance for precipitation through next Monday may be
Friday evening into early Saturday, when a quick moving upper level
wave is depicted passing somewhere near or through the region in
various models, though discrepancies on placement are quite large,
and moisture availability is suspect. Will maintain a dry forecast
for now - and regardless, any precipitation with this feature would
be light and non-impactful. At this time, the most likely impact
will simply be an increase in mid and high level cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 701 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Impacts:

- IFR or worse ceilings this morning becoming MVFR this afternoon
  into tonight

- Showers or drizzle at times through mid afternoon, chance of
  thunderstorms

Discussion:

Showers or drizzle, along with some thunderstorms along an
approaching cold front, will be concerns for aviation this morning
into mid afternoon. Will carry a PROB30 group for the most likely
time for thunderstorms at each site.

Widespread IFR or worse ceilings are in place with some fog and
drizzle reducing visibilities at times to MVFR range. Ceilings
should improve to MVFR by midday/early afternoon depending upon the
site and remain there until late tonight.

Winds will be around 10KT or less throughout the period, southerly
or southwesterly early, becoming northerly with time as the cold
front passes through the area.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Nield