299
FXUS63 KIND 081820
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
220 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into
  tonight.

- Additional chances for precipitation late Saturday night into
  Sunday and again towards mid week

- Milder temperatures Saturday with highs in the 70s before
  slight cooldown late weekend into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

This afternoon through Saturday...

Mostly quiet weather conditions are ongoing across much of central
Indiana as weak surface ridging remains in place. Current
radar/satellite imagery does show an extensive area of clouds to
the west with precipitation now moving into northwestern counties.
This is associated with an approaching shortwave which will
support numerous showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms
later today into tonight. Severe weather is not expected due to
weak instability, but a strong sub-severe storm cannot be
completely ruled out if sufficient destabilization occurs given
strong flow aloft.

Localized flooding appears to be a slightly greater threat into the
overnight hours. While the environment does not support efficient
rainfall rates, there is some concern for training due to the weak
boundary slowly progressing southward. Latest CAMs suggest the
potential for a corridor of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain near or
south of I-70. These rainfall amounts on top off recent rainfall
earlier in the week could lead to minor localized flooding.

Precipitation is expected to gradually clear out from NW to SE
during the overnight as the aforementioned system and weak boundary
move out. Increasing heights aloft along with weak surface ridging
building in on Saturday will allow for quiet weather conditions.
That said, a stray shower cannot be ruled out across northeastern
counties. Breezy conditions are expected into the afternoon hours
due to diurnal mixing into a modest LLJ. Warm air advection will
allow temperatures to warm into Saturday with highs in the 70s.

Saturday night through Sunday...

Rain chances return to the forecast late Saturday night into Sunday
following another subtle wave moving in. The subtle wave and an
associated cold front should promote isolated to scattered showers.
Diverging model solutions limits forecast confidence, but the
greatest precipitation chances are late Saturday night when the cold
front moves through. Cold air advection behind the departing system
will then advect cooler-drier air across central Indiana. Isolated
light showers may linger into Sunday, mainly across south-central
IN. Expect cooler temperatures into the 60s again on Sunday.

Sunday night onward...

Quiet weather conditions are likely Sunday night through Monday with
most guidance depicting strong high pressure building in. Rain
chances return once again on Tuesday ahead of another low pressure
system. Coverage of precipitation and overall QPF amounts remain
uncertain this far out. One of the main caveats is moisture return
appears subtle ahead of the approaching system. An amplified
shortwave should promote surface cyclogenesis north of the area so
light precipitation does appear likely for at least parts of central
Indiana. This system is expected to depart on Wednesday supporting
drier conditions. Look for temperatures to gradually moderate
towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Impacts:

- Occasional gusts to 18-24KT within 15Z-22Z
- Deteriorating conditions within light showers late this
  afternoon through 03Z
- MVFR or worse CIG after 04Z, through 12Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions to continue over the next few hours before light
showers arrive from W to E. Gusts are likely throughout the
afternoon, but may subside as coverage of showers increase

Coverage of showers should increase after 21Z, with pockets of MVFR
VIS. Any thunder will be too isolated to include in TAFs. Ceilings
to deteriorate later tonight as -SHRA slowly taper off from NW to SE
with MVFR or worse developing quickly in the early overnight. Some
light fog may develop at KLAF and KHUF late tonight into tomorrow
morning. Ceilings should improve after 12Z, with all TAF sites back
to VFR between 16-20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...Melo