234
FXUS63 KILX 292321
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
621 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning continues for parts of central and east central
  Illinois this evening. Enhanced fire caution should be used
  across central Illinois where fuel moisture is quite low and
  strong, gusty winds can be found.

- Gusty southerly winds will continue this evening and again
  tomorrow. Gusts of 35-40 mph are forecast through tomorrow

- Near record high temperatures are forecast for tomorrow. Highs
  will be in the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Dry weather is forecast through tomorrow ahead of a weather system
that is expected to bring showers and storms to the area late
tomorrow night through Thursday. In addition, central IL is
sitting between high pressure to the east and this next weather
system to our west. This is creating a very tight gradient over
the area which is bringing very strong and gusty winds across the
area. Gusts have reach between 40-45 mph already today in some
area and are expected to reach up to 40 mph tomorrow ahead of the
weather system. Fortunately as the weather system moves into the
area Thursday and into Thursday night, the winds will decrease
significantly. In reference to the timing of the storms with the
system moving into the area, convection will likely move in late
Wed night and continue through early Thursday morning into early
Thur afternoon. Based on a consensus of the models, the precip
could linger into late Thur afternoon into Thur evening, but most
of the precip will have ended across the area. Rainfall amounts
will range from .30 across the central parts of the CWA to around
3/4 of an inch in southeast IL. Severe weather is also possible
with the storms that will be moving through the area. Dewpoints
will increase tomorrow, reaching into the 60s by tomorrow night,
sufficient for storms. Combined with strong wind shear, think
severe storms is possible from late tomorrow night through Thur
morning. Forecast severe parameters look to support a possible
squall line moving through the area with damaging winds the main
threat.

Temps will be quite warm again tomorrow with highs in the lower
80s. Record highs tomorrow are much higher than today so think we
will be just under record highs. Once the front moves through the
area, temps will begin dropping through the day with lower temps
expected.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

After a brief dry period from Thur night through Sat, unsettled
weather will return to the area for Sat night through Tue. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected the last half of the
weekend and into the beginning of next week. Temps will slowly
warm again next week with the warmest day forecast to be in the
lower 70s for Monday.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

A frontal boundary extends from near Denver to Duluth early this
evening and will inch east across the Great Plains through the
period. A tight pressure gradient is already in place across
central Illinois producing southerly wind gusts in excess of
30kt. There may be a slight down tick in wind speeds this evening
and overnight, but winds aloft will strengthen to 50-55kt possibly
higher resulting in LLWS conditions overnight. Wind gusts will
increase back above 30kt Tuesday mid morning. VFR conditions are
expected through the period

Deubelbeiss

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Temperatures are forecast to remain warm in the 80s tomorrow.
Here is a look at how that compares to the daily records across
central Illinois:

                           October 30th

------------- Record High --------- Record Warm Low ------------

Peoria........ 86 (1950)62 (1927)
Springfield... 89 (1950)61 (1974)
Lincoln....... 87 (1950)59 (2004, 1974, 1924)

Auten


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-
036>038-043>046-055-057.

&&

$$