122
FXUS63 KILX 161744
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like warmth will continue through the weekend with highs
  ranging from the middle 80s to near 90.

- Precipitation chances don`t return until this weekend/early next
  week with a series of frontal systems.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Forecast looks on track today and no update needed aside from
minor adjustments to sky cover grids. 1030 mb high pressure over
central and southern New England and ridging westward across the
Great Lakes region will continue to influence our weather today,
with dry and very warm conditions, with highs in the upper 80s to
around 90F, similar to past two days. Normal high temperatures for
mid Sep is around 80F over central IL. Once difference will be
lower dewpoints that continue to advect in from the east/se.
Currently dewpoints range from the low to mid 50s over Vermilion
and Edgar counties, to the low to mid 60s west of I-57. Dewpoints
should slip into the 50s across CWA during this afternoon and
limit scattered cumulus cloud development to mainly areas west of
I-57 with few cumulus clouds in eastern IL. Gentle east winds of
5-10 mph prevail today.

07

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

An expansive area of surface ridging centered over the northeast US
extends westward through Illinois. In the upper levels, a strong
~588 dm 500 mb high is anchored over the northeast CONUS with a pair
of upper lows tied to tropical systems over the southeast US,
creating a Rex blocking pattern. This will keep warm and dry weather
ongoing here through at least the end of the week. Dewpoints will
come down significantly today as drier air currently situated over
eastern Indiana and Ohio advects westward. This will bring cooler
overnight lows the next several days with temperatures bottoming out
in the 50s or upper 40s.

Potential tropical cyclone eight will move onshore the coast of the
Carolinas tonight, though will come to a halt by midweek as it
encounters strong ridging to the north. Moisture associated with
this tropical system will extend as far west as Ohio/Kentucky, but
will stay far enough away from us to keep things dry. Precipitation
chances begin to return this weekend tied to a pair of frontal
systems. The NBM shows low chances of precipitation as early as
Friday and continuing through early next week. However, this is
likely temporally overdone and will continue to be refined in the
coming days as the upper features are sampled better.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL
airports through 18Z/1 pm Tuesday. A Rex Block pattern is keeping
surface and upper level high pressure ridge near IL next few days,
and drier air in place to limit diurnal cumulus cloud develop to
few-scattered. Will also of patches of cirrus clouds passing by.
East to SE winds 5-10 kts this afternoon to be light east to ENE
after sunset tonight, and east to ESE on Tuesday staying under 10
kts. No fog expected overnight due to dry air mass and soils in
place.


07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$