Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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234 FXUS63 KILX 292321 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 621 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning continues for parts of central and east central Illinois this evening. Enhanced fire caution should be used across central Illinois where fuel moisture is quite low and strong, gusty winds can be found. - Gusty southerly winds will continue this evening and again tomorrow. Gusts of 35-40 mph are forecast through tomorrow - Near record high temperatures are forecast for tomorrow. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Dry weather is forecast through tomorrow ahead of a weather system that is expected to bring showers and storms to the area late tomorrow night through Thursday. In addition, central IL is sitting between high pressure to the east and this next weather system to our west. This is creating a very tight gradient over the area which is bringing very strong and gusty winds across the area. Gusts have reach between 40-45 mph already today in some area and are expected to reach up to 40 mph tomorrow ahead of the weather system. Fortunately as the weather system moves into the area Thursday and into Thursday night, the winds will decrease significantly. In reference to the timing of the storms with the system moving into the area, convection will likely move in late Wed night and continue through early Thursday morning into early Thur afternoon. Based on a consensus of the models, the precip could linger into late Thur afternoon into Thur evening, but most of the precip will have ended across the area. Rainfall amounts will range from .30 across the central parts of the CWA to around 3/4 of an inch in southeast IL. Severe weather is also possible with the storms that will be moving through the area. Dewpoints will increase tomorrow, reaching into the 60s by tomorrow night, sufficient for storms. Combined with strong wind shear, think severe storms is possible from late tomorrow night through Thur morning. Forecast severe parameters look to support a possible squall line moving through the area with damaging winds the main threat. Temps will be quite warm again tomorrow with highs in the lower 80s. Record highs tomorrow are much higher than today so think we will be just under record highs. Once the front moves through the area, temps will begin dropping through the day with lower temps expected. Auten .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Next Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 After a brief dry period from Thur night through Sat, unsettled weather will return to the area for Sat night through Tue. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected the last half of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Temps will slowly warm again next week with the warmest day forecast to be in the lower 70s for Monday. Auten && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 A frontal boundary extends from near Denver to Duluth early this evening and will inch east across the Great Plains through the period. A tight pressure gradient is already in place across central Illinois producing southerly wind gusts in excess of 30kt. There may be a slight down tick in wind speeds this evening and overnight, but winds aloft will strengthen to 50-55kt possibly higher resulting in LLWS conditions overnight. Wind gusts will increase back above 30kt Tuesday mid morning. VFR conditions are expected through the period Deubelbeiss && .CLIMATE... Issued at 917 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Temperatures are forecast to remain warm in the 80s tomorrow. Here is a look at how that compares to the daily records across central Illinois: October 30th ------------- Record High --------- Record Warm Low ------------ Peoria........ 86 (1950)62 (1927) Springfield... 89 (1950)61 (1974) Lincoln....... 87 (1950)59 (2004, 1974, 1924) Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031- 036>038-043>046-055-057. && $$