184
FXUS63 KILX 231649
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1049 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An arctic airmass will bring bitterly cold temperatures over
  central and southeast IL into next work week. Wind chill values
  as cold as 10 to 30 below zero are expected this morning along
  and north of I-70. Wind chills of 10 to 20 below will be common
  tonight and Saturday morning across central and southeast IL,
  and again overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Subzero
  wind chills should persist several mornings through next work
  week.

- A long duration winter storm will bring two waves of snow to
  central and southeast IL Saturday through Sunday evening. Locations
  near and south of I-72 have a 50-90% chance of total snow
  amounts exceeding 5 inches, with a 30-60% chance for amounts to
  exceed 8 inches along and south of I-70 per LREF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

We have upgraded the winter storm watch into a winter storm
warning from 9 am Saturday through midnight Sunday night, and is
from Cass, Menard, Logan, DeWitt, Piatt, Champaign and Vermilion
counties south. This area could see 5-9 inches with the heaviest
amounts southeast of I-70. A winter weather advisory is posted
from 9 am Saturday through midnight Sunday night for Schuyler,
Fulton, Mason, Peoria, Tazewell, Woodford and McLean county for
3-5 inches of snow forecast.

The extreme cold warning continues through noon today from Fulton,
Tazewell and McLean counties north for wind chills as cold as 25
to 30 below, then a cold weather advisory goes through noon
Saturday for wind chills of 15-25 below. The rest of central IL
has a cold weather advisory this morning through noon Saturday,
and added Effingham, Jasper and Crawford counties into this cold
weather advisory. Issued a cold weather advisory for Clay,
Richland and Lawrence counties for tonight and Saturday morning.

The 09Z/3 am surface map shows strong 1047-1051 mb Arctic high
pressure along the Alberta and Saskatchewan province line and
ridging se into the Midwest including IL. The arctic cold front
had just pushed se of Lawrence county as it was pushing into
southern parts of IN/IL. Temps were down to zero at Galesburg and
Lacon, and lower 20s in southeast IL se of I-70. NW winds 10-20
mph and gusting 22-33 mph over central IL, was giving wind chills
of 15-20 below zero from Macomb to Bloomington north, and lower
teens from highway 50 south in far southern CWA. Moline had temp
down to 5 below and wind chill of 28 below, and this airmass was
spreading se toward our northern CWA where extreme cold warning
goes through noon today.

The strong arctic high pressure to settle into the central/eastern
Dakotas during today and into southern MN this evening and into
the upper MS river valley by dawn Saturday while ridging over IL
and keeping us dry and very cold through tonight. NNW winds
gusting 25-30 mph this morning to gradually diminish during the
afternoon and evening as high pressure moves closer to IL. Temps
to continue falling into this morning and getting into the single
digits below zero from I-72 north. Temps only climb a few degrees
at best this afternoon, and to be the coldest day since Dec 14th.
Lows tonight of zero to 6 below over central IL and zero to 5
above in southeast IL. NNE winds around 10 mph to give wind chills
as cold as 10-20 below zero across CWA with northern CWA getting a
bit colder like BMI and GBG.

A frontal boundary near the Gulf Coast with low pressure moving
east along it from south Texas to south of LA by sunset Saturday
while a trof of low pressure extended ne into the eastern TN/OH
river valleys. Will see overrunning light snow spreading ne into
sw IL during early-mid Sat morning and into central/se IL from
mid Sat morning into early sat afternoon and continue into Sat
evening. Northern CWA will see drier air erode at some of this
light snow and cut back on initial amounts there. Between 1 and 3
inches of snow expected from I-72 south Sat afternoon into Sat
evening. Highs Sat 7-11 over central IL and 11-14 in southeast IL.
Wind chills to modify above 10 below around lunch time Saturday,
but still pretty cold wind chills in the single digits below zero
common from Sat afternoon into Sunday evening.

Low pressure lifting ne into the southeast TN river valley during
Sunday morning, to see stronger frontogenesis/lift into central/se
IL later overnight Sat night, especially after 09Z/3 am Sunday and
continue into Sunday. Models generally show highest qpf/snowfall
amounts during this 2nd round of snows with 3-5 more inches of
snow expected along and se of the IL river (1-2 inches over Knox
and Stark counties). Could see some sleet mixed with the
moderate snow southeast of Robinson to Flora line overnight Sat
night. Snow to diminish east of the IL river during Sunday evening
with NW winds bringing in more arctic air Sunday night and Monday.
Lows Sunday night of zero to 5 below with wind chills of 10-20
below overnight Sunday night into Monday morning, when another
cold air advisory will likely be needed for much of our area.

A 1040 mb Canadian high pressure building into Texas and ridging
ne into the mid MS and lower Ohio river valley by late Monday to
keep frigid air in place over IL early next week with highs Monday
only in the lower teens. Just a slight moderation of temps on Tue
with highs in the low to mid 20s before another cold front moves
se through IL Tue afternoon and drops temps again. Generally dry
and very cold wx next work week, and we will be flirting with cold
weather advisories again overnight Wed night into Thu morning and
possibly overnight Thu night/Fri morning.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing at the start of the period and should
persist through most of the period. Northwest winds will remain
gusty through the day Friday, then gusts subside after 00z and
winds gradually turn to east-northeasterly by Saturday morning.
Mid and high level clouds will continue to stream overhead
throughout the period. Snow is expected to be pushing into the
region from the southwest late in the period (after 15z Sat), so
included a PROB30 group for snow at KSPI/KDEC. Snow chances will
increase after 18z Sat, with periods of accumulating snow possible
between 18z Sat and 00z Mon.

Erwin

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for ILZ027>031-036>038.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight CST
Sunday night for ILZ029-031-036>038-040-041.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068.

Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Saturday to midnight CST Sunday
night for ILZ042>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
Saturday for ILZ071>073.

&&

$$