Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
881 FXUS61 KILN 081046 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 646 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No substantial changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several rounds of showers through the weekend. 2) Temperatures will be normal to below normal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) West-east low level jet near/north of I-70 will weaken heading into the morning. this axis will remain favorable for some showers to develop, although any rainfall will be quite light as low levels remain dry. Short wave emerging from the central Rockies will track east in the base of a broad long wave trough and push across the region late tonight. Ahead of this, there will be some mid level frontogenesis that could lead to another increase in showers north of I-70 during the afternoon. Additional showers extending southwest along a weak cold front will move through the area tonight, possibly not clearing central Ohio until early Saturday morning. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder, but instability is very limited. Next cold front will lay out as initial short wave pivots across the upper Great Lakes Saturday afternoon and evening while a second weaker disturbance tracks further south late Saturday night into Sunday. Forcing does not look overly impressive but this will bring another chance of showers, with perhaps a bit of an uptick in coverage as some weak instability develops along it by the time it is exiting the forecast area. KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures will be warming early in the period with readings getting close to normal tonight into Saturday night. But then below normal temperatures will return into mid week with a mean long wave trough over eastern North America. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid clouds will continue to pass across the area through the day. Winds will increase with some gusts at or above 20 kt. Showers could start to affect KDAY as early as 22Z, but most of the showers will occur after 02Z across all of the terminals. Winds will decrease a bit and back to the south. Expect rain to moisten the low levels sufficiently to result in ceilings falling to MVFR late in the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will likely persist into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...