Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
489 FXUS61 KILN 311656 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1256 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier, cooler air will move into the middle Ohio Valley tonight as surface high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. This high will continue to provide fair weather into the weekend. Increasing moisture will bring a chance of showers early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Showers will continue to decrease this evening as a wave of low pressure and the accompanying frontal boundary move away from our area. Expansive surface high pressure will begin to build into the Ohio Valley tonight. As dry air advection continues, remnant low clouds will slowly be scoured away late, leaving mostly clear skies for all except south-central Ohio and northeast Kentucky. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will offer mostly clear skies and a steady northeasterly flow through the period. Temperatures will be below normal. Can`t rule out a short period of river valley fog developing late Friday night due to the local moisture source. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Saturday begins with NE surface flow centered under high pressure with NW flow aloft bringing in CAA through much of the weekend. Below normal temperatures with mid 70s/low 80s for highs and upper 50s/lower 60s for lows. The high shifts eastward by Sunday, allowing return flow and a slight chance of convective activity mostly in the Tri State on Sunday afternoon. As the high continues to push east and a more zonal pattern takes over, a mid level trough and associated shortwave over the central plains will approach the region, though timing and sharpness of the trough remains uncertain. With increasing instability and the return of more persistent SW flow, at least a chance for especially diurnally driven showers and scattered thunderstorms increasing a bit each day from Mon-Wed, though generally temperatures remain near to below normal, but increasing to near normal for especially Wed/Thu. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers with a few embedded storms will be possible early in the TAF period as a cold front continues to sink through through the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Due to the strong instability gradient along the front, have opted to include just a Prob30 for thunder at the Cincinnati terminals... though this might be a little too aggressive given the cooler air and low clouds spreading southeast into this area. Otherwise, the main uncertainty early in the period will be lowering ceilings behind the front. Will need to amend for this as confidence improves. VFR conditions will arriving later tonight as dry air moves into the area. Outside of patchy river valley fog at LUK early Friday morning, these VFR conditions will dominate for the rest of the TAF period. Northeast winds at the 2,000 foot level may approach 30-35 knots early Friday morning. This should keep things a bit below LLWS threshold so have not included this in the TAFs. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...