732
FXUS62 KILM 230518
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1218 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal temperatures will continue through tomorrow night.
High pressure will then move off the coast early next week
bringing warmer temperatures. A passing cold front and another
storm system are likely to impact the area mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV imagery shows very large upper low centered over NY. It`s
eastward progression will be slow through the period. And though
we do keep deep layer NW flow there will be some low level
thermal recover on Saturday allowing most area to hit 60, some
10 degrees milder than today but still about a category below
climatology. A light west wind will prevent some of the
widespread radiational cooling seen this morning (27 at Back
Island) so lows will only be a few degrees on the chilly side.
Model guidance is in good agreement however in a localized
dropping off of winds that will lead to chillier readings from
southern Florence into Williamsburg Counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Light winds and clear skies on Saturday night will lead to a
great radiational cooling opportunity across the region. Despite
lower level thicknesses increasing, most of the region is
likely to remain in the lower 30s with mid or upper 30s along
the coast. Some of these areas will also drop to near freezing.
RH recovery from previous days means that frost is likely to be
widespread for areas where the growing season continues.

The gradual warming trend will continue on Sunday with highs
back into the upper 60s. Clear skies and light winds should make
for a stellar day. Cold again Sunday night with another great
opportunity for radiational cooling. Some areas dropping into
the mid 30s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure and zonal flow for the early part of next week
will allow temperatures to moderate. As SW flow increases on
Tuesday, highs will again be above normal. Clouds increase with
an approaching cold front on Tuesday. The upper trough
associated with this front will remain just north of the area.
Have maintained some low-end PoPs for Tuesday as ensembles vary
on the depth of the trough and moisture content of the SW flow
aloft.

Mid level flow remains zonal for Wednesday as brief high
pressure builds across the area for Wednesday. This area of high
pressure will drag temperatures back to below normal; highs in
the low to mid 60s. This high pressure will move quickly and
create a brief wedge across the Carolinas and Virginia Wednesday
night into Thursday.

Thanksgiving Day will be mostly cloudy as a shortwave over the
southern US races across the southeastern US and moisture
streams northeastward in SW flow aloft. Isentropic lift over an
existing shallow cold dome should produce some rainfall across
the area later in the day (exact timing still being ironed-out).

Confidence remains low for temperatures on Thursday. Low
pressure will develop in response to a deepening trough, either
along the eastern edge of the Appalachians (stronger) or
offshore near the Gulf Stream, east of the wedge (weaker). If
the low tracks closer to the mountains and warm air is advected
northward, areas of east of I-95 will likely climb into the 70s
after lunchtime with showery and isolated heavy showers possible
during the late afternoon and overnight. An eastward track of
the low would keep the area significantly cooler with lighter,
but stratiform rainfall.

Probabilities currently favor previous forecasts which call for
a sharper shortwave, stronger low near the eastern extent of
the Appalachians. Certainly need to see some more model runs to
narrow down the specifics of this forecast.

Regardless of the Thanksgiving forecast, the trough will push
offshore and the following cold/dry air advection should be
strong. Temperatures will back to below normal for late next
week and into the weekend with clearing skies.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. Light westerly winds overnight will become northwesterly
after sunrise, with gusts to 15-20 kts during the day Saturday,
potentially to 25 kts across southeast NC where the pressure
gradient remains tighter. Clear skies, outside of a few mid
clouds across southeast NC this afternoon.

Extended Outlook... Expect VFR through at least early Tuesday
as high pressure maintains control, with a low risk of
restrictions later Tuesday as a cold front approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... The gradient remains strong enough to
support SCA overnight into early Saturday as the area lies
between a deeply occluded low in the Northeast and high pressure
building in from the west. Spectral wave plots show to 4-5
second wind chop that will start to abate on Saturday. THere is
also and easterly swell component that may drop out altogether
on Saturday.

Saturday Night through Tuesday... High pressure will build
across the area this weekend with improving conditions. Quiet
conditions continue into early next week before winds increase
slightly ahead of the next cold front. Southwest flow ahead of
the cold front could gust up to 20-25 knots on Monday night and
Tuesday. Cold air advection following the cold front on Tuesday
night is not expected to prompt Small Craft Advisory conditions
at this time with max gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MBB/21