005
FXUS62 KILM 041840
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
240 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1)Saturday brings one last day of heat as well as late day
 severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Saturday brings one last day of heat as well as
late day severe thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
As with both the last few days but also
a good portion of the summer mid level ridging will keep the weather
hot for one more day heading into Saturday. A Heat Advisory will be
issued for the entire area. Of note the NBM dewpoints were high
enough to support warning criteria with HI`s in the 110-113 range
but forecast soundings show a deep dry sub-cloud layer/inverted V
and so these values were trimmed, keeping HI`s in advisory realm.

As Saturday progresses the mid level ridge will retreat westward.
This will open the area up to height falls and increasingly vort
center-laden northwesterly flow coinciding with the approach of a
cold front. In the hot, humid airmass instability will grow
moderately strong, perhaps in excess of 2000J/Kg and even DCAPE
could attain values of 1500, all while deep layer shear increases to
25-30 kts.  SPC continues to highlight the entire area in SLIGHT,
level 2/5 for severe weather citing damaging wind as the main
threat. Some hail may also reach the ground esp over northern
counties but some dry air aloft should temper its size. Looking
through CAMs the heaviest activity looks to favor the coast and
would not be surprised to see a 30" wind isopleth (though this would
still be SLIGHT).  Lastly as the storms enter the area from the
north they will be weakening but early on could still have some
impressive lightning flash rates (esp given the fact that NW flow
events are often a bit quicker than progged).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR today with light W to SW winds. Confidence
dips tonight regarding fog though inland MVFR restrictions appear
worst case. Have left 4SM from prev forecast in LBT and FLO.

Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms should become numerous
across the area late Saturday afternoon through Sunday as a cold
front arrives from the north. The highest potential for IFR
conditions in convection and briefly strong winds is expected
Saturday evening. Prevailing VFR conditions should return by Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Swell energy has abated so now some typical late summertime
conditions with SW flow and mainly wind waves along with the weak
but still present SE swell. Major changes in store for Labor Day
Weekend, a big one for boating. A cold front will approach late
tomorrow and while most of the day should be rain-free a line of
strong to severe thunderstorms is expected. Storms are expected late
afternoon/early evening from N to S. The front will stall near our
southern waters Sunday making for light and variable winds while
storms continue to bring widespread visibility restrictions and
localized gusty winds albeit with less vigor than Saturday. The
remainder of the forecast will see high pressure building in from
the north bringing N to NE flow that could approach advisory
thresholds at least in gusts Sunday. A long onshore fetch develops
behind the front that could bring advisory-worthy 6 ft seas Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB