Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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393 FXUS62 KILM 092005 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 305 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will start to warm again ahead of a cold front that is due Monday night. Rainfall amounts will be minimal with the frontal passage. More seasonable weather arrives Tuesday night, remaining into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure to the north will start to shift offshore with a coastal trough developing near the Southeast U.S. coast tonight and then pushing inland Sunday. Main challenge overnight will be temperatures as we start to transition to increasing low-level moisture due to isentropic ascent west of the trough. Could see some very light showers/sprinkles develop overnight, especially near the coast, although not expecting measurable rainfall so left rain chances at less than 15%. Should see temps drop off fairly quickly after sunset before and then level off and/or fall more slowly the rest of the night as low-level moisture and clouds increase. Lows tonight should generally fall in the 50-55 degree range, although slightly cooler inland and a bit warmer at the coast (especially along the Georgetown Co coast where it likely won`t drop below the lower 60s). Rather cloudy skies and the weak wedge pattern will help limit temperatures on Sunday, especially inland where it may not get out of the 60s. Some light showers/sprinkles look possible just about anywhere through the day with the best chances (albeit low) of measurable rainfall likely holding off until late in the day well inland. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Some welcome rain chances to start the period given our drought status. Given the weak nature of the mid level forcing however QPF prospects remain very low. Rain chances rise from Sunday night into Monday as cold front draws nearer. The front is delayed until night so Monday afternoon will grow warm again. The CAA Monday night will be quite delayed so lows will still be a good 10 above normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The CAA strengthens on Tuesday but model highs remaining above climo probably indicate that we may see a non-diurnal temperature curve, but this is difficult to forecast so far out. Seasonally normal if not slightly cool weather sets in Tuesday night and Wednesday as much higher pressures advect in from the north. Dry and seasonable weather will remain in the latter part of the period as high pressure is slow to progress eastward. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 18Z Sunday. Just a small risk for MVFR ceilings starting late tonight as low-level moisture/isentropic ascent increases west of a coastal trough. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate Sun followed by periodic flight restrictions possible Sun night thru Mon as rain chances increase aided by the next cold frontal passage early Tue. High pressure and VFR to dominate Tue thru Wed. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...High pressure to the north will be shifting offshore allowing a developing coastal trough tonight to push inland on Sunday. The strongest pressure gradient is expected through the evening with winds diminishing thereafter and shifting more east/southeast into Sunday. Gusts should reach near 30 kt with seas peaking 6-7 ft. Thus, we will continue the Small Craft Advisory for all waters. Sunday night through Thursday... Period initializes with prefrontal southwesterly flow. A swing to the north will occur by Tuesday behind the Monday night cold frontal passage. As the cool advection strengthens Tuesday night seas should build to advisory levels while winds may fall a bit short. The high will be slow to progress eastward so northerly winds remain for the rest of the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...RJB MARINE...ILM