Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
087 FXUS62 KILM 311819 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 219 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity will continue through Friday, then atypically cooler weather is expected this weekend in the wake of a cold front. This cold front is expected push into the area during Friday then south of the waters Saturday. As it moves through it will result in widespread showers and storms. Temperatures will gradually warm during the upcoming week to near normal conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows weak low pressure over Virginia, with a coastal trough riding up along the Carolinas. That trough and an accompanied shortwave aloft led to showers and storms igniting along the coast this morning, dragging up into the Cape Fear region and offshore of the southeast NC coastal waters by midday. Widespread debris cloud cover has kept temperatures on the cooler side this afternoon, but this cover is already starting to break a bit. Meanwhile, more clearing and diurnal cumulus has formed across the SC Midlands, where a few isolated showers have popped up just west of the Pee Dee region. Daytime heating has bounced back a bit across parts of northeast SC, where convection is likely to pop up in isolated spots this afternoon and evening. Debris clouds are still slow to clear out across southeast NC, but the process is ongoing. Confidence is slightly lower regarding convection in this area, but the chances still remain. Storms may continue into the overnight hours in some isolated spots, due to enhanced moisture and help from the coastal trough. Lows tonight in the mid-to-upper 70s. Cold front moves through the area Friday, approaching the coast by late in the day. Convection looks to fire by early-mid afternoon. Significant moisture profiles and high instability will no doubt lead to showers and storms, as has been the case for days now. But with the front and enhanced shortwave activity aloft, storms could be more widespread and explosive than the last couple of days have seen. DCAPE isn`t quite as sporty as it could be, but wet microbursts are possible within the stronger storms. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the area in a "Marginal Risk" (threat level 1/5) for severe weather. Highs in the lower 90s again. Shouldn`t have a problem hitting the triple digits again, but I ultimately think debris clouds keep temperatures down just enough from hitting Heat Advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Atypically cool weather is expected beginning during the short term period as the forecast area will reside in a post-frontal air-mass. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist Saturday as PWATs will generally remain above 2", except for the northern tier of forecast zones. A drier column is expected during Saturday night except for far southern areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NBM PoPs could be a bit overzealous Sunday, especially if the drier column can push farther south. At the moment the lingering PoPs during Sunday will be highest along the coast and far southern zones. Below normal temperatures will prevail most of the long term, with a gradual warming trend through Thursday. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the potential for a couple perturbations that develop along the front offshore. Regardless, more typical low-end PoPs will be maintained through the remainder of the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period, with exceptions. Convective activity has been in a lull over the last few hours after showers and storms moved along the coast this morning and midday. Atmosphere is destabilizing more, particularly across the Pee Dee region. VFR likely for most this afternoon and evening, but threw in a PROB30 group at each terminal from 21-01Z to account for possible storms that may lower flight categories to IFR briefly. Shallow convection may continue in some areas overnight. The convective debris clouds should minimize fog development though MVFR is tough to rule out. KFLO and KLBT have the best chance at fog development before sunrise, as the mixed layer is calmest in that area. Front starts dropping into the area after daybreak Friday morning. Most of the convection associated with that front occurs after 18Z, but some initiation may begin in the 16-18Z timeframe. Extended Outlook...Showers and storms may be rather widespread Friday afternoon and Saturday as a cold front enters the area, with the associated vsby restrictions due to rain not as confined to the afternoon hours as is typical for this time of year. Winds turn to the NE behind this boundary over the weekend. Thunderstorm coverage returns to normal early next week, with lowered flight categories returning to mainly the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Through Friday... Friday Night through Tuesday...Fairly atypical maritime conditions are expected during the first part of this period with a front becoming positioned well south of the waters. This will result in a period of NEly winds, potentially sustained around 20 kts. Ensemble GFS wind speed probabilities for >20 kts have increased for the Cape Fear waters beginning Saturday, then probs diminishing during Monday. Low confidence in the location/number of perturbations along the front when it is offshore. The old boundary is then shown to drift northward beyond Tuesday as high pressure attempts to reassert itself off the southeast coast. Waves will increase in the NEly fetch, likely enough to get into Small Craft thresholds Saturday night into Sunday, especially for the outer coastal waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...IGB MARINE...IGB/SRP