Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
172
FGUS73 KICT 262107
ESFICT
KSC001-009-015-017-021-035-053-079-095-099-111-115-125-133-155-159-
167-169-173-191-205-272300-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
307 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2024
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 11/26/2024 - 02/24/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hutchinson 8.0 13.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Haven 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Derby 12.0 15.0 16.2 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mulvane 16.5 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Oxford 17.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Arkansas City 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert 24.0 25.0 25.7 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons 18.0 22.0 24.7 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hutchinson 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 13 <5 7 <5 <5 <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills 22.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Halstead 25.0 27.0 29.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Sedgwick 22.0 25.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th 18.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck 17.0 21.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Belle Plaine 23.0 24.5 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Slate Creek
Wellington 19.0 22.0 23.5 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda 22.0 25.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Augusta 21.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Walnut River
El Dorado 19.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Augusta 23.0 28.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Winfield 18.0 22.0 29.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Arkansas City 18.0 22.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 8 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Fall River
Fredonia 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona 19.0 21.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Independence 30.0 47.6 53.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Coffeyville 18.0 23.0 26.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Cottonwood Falls 9.0 11.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Plymouth 32.0 34.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Neosho River
Iola 15.0 21.0 27.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Chanute 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Erie 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Parsons 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 12 13 7 8 <5 <5
Oswego 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 11 11 6 5 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Barnard 21.0 23.3 24.9 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Saline River
Lincoln 30.0 36.0 38.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg 21.0 29.0 33.9 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mentor 20.0 24.0 28.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 6 9 <5 5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria 27.0 30.0 33.1 : <5 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
Russell 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Ellsworth 20.0 24.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Saline River
Russell 18.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 11/26/2024 - 02/24/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.4 6.0
Hutchinson 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.8 4.8
Haven 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.7 4.7 6.2 7.3
Derby 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.0 4.5 6.9 7.9
Mulvane 6.2 6.2 6.2 7.6 9.2 11.6 12.6
Oxford 8.7 8.7 8.7 9.9 11.7 13.7 15.4
Arkansas City 4.4 4.4 4.4 6.0 8.0 9.6 11.5
:Walnut Creek
Albert 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 7.6 12.1 17.7
:Cow Creek
Lyons 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.2 9.0 13.9 15.1
Hutchinson 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.9 6.9 10.3 10.8
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills 0.4 0.4 0.4 5.3 9.4 15.8 18.7
Halstead 6.0 6.0 6.0 9.2 12.7 18.6 21.0
Sedgwick 3.1 3.1 3.1 6.6 9.9 14.1 16.5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th 7.3 7.3 7.3 10.3 12.0 13.6 15.7
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.4 7.7
:Ninnescah River
Peck 3.6 3.6 4.2 5.9 8.0 10.1 13.2
Belle Plaine 10.4 10.4 10.8 12.2 14.2 16.2 18.9
:Slate Creek
Wellington 3.8 3.8 5.2 8.1 13.6 18.2 20.7
:Whitewater River
Towanda 2.2 2.2 4.5 8.6 12.1 15.7 19.3
Augusta 4.4 4.4 5.9 7.8 9.5 11.2 13.5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado 6.3 6.3 7.1 7.8 8.4 9.2 12.1
:Walnut River
El Dorado 2.2 2.2 2.7 3.4 4.1 5.4 7.8
Augusta 5.7 5.8 6.4 7.4 8.6 12.4 16.9
Winfield 1.5 1.5 3.2 5.9 8.8 12.8 15.3
Arkansas City 3.2 3.8 4.5 7.0 9.7 12.2 13.7
:Chikaskia River
Corbin 2.7 2.7 2.8 4.6 6.9 9.6 10.9
:Fall River
Fredonia 4.3 4.5 5.4 8.0 12.2 17.7 18.4
:Verdigris River
Altoona 4.5 4.5 5.9 8.6 11.4 16.8 17.8
Independence 4.4 5.2 8.5 12.6 19.2 26.6 28.7
Coffeyville 1.5 1.6 3.0 4.2 6.1 12.7 15.1
:Cottonwood River
Florence 3.2 3.2 3.6 5.2 7.3 16.6 22.7
Cottonwood Falls 1.0 1.2 2.0 3.0 4.2 6.2 8.6
Plymouth 5.0 5.0 7.6 12.3 17.2 26.5 31.4
:Neosho River
Iola 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.5 10.2 13.9 14.4
Chanute 10.8 10.8 10.8 13.4 16.8 20.7 23.3
Erie 13.9 13.9 14.6 17.4 21.8 26.0 29.7
Parsons 9.8 9.8 11.0 13.6 18.4 21.5 24.2
Oswego 8.0 8.0 9.3 10.5 13.1 17.6 21.0
:Salt Creek
Barnard 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.9 6.4 8.3 8.7
:Saline River
Lincoln 10.3 10.3 10.4 12.3 13.6 15.4 16.9
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg 6.4 6.4 6.4 8.2 10.3 15.3 19.2
Mentor 3.8 3.8 3.8 5.3 7.9 12.7 17.6
:Mulberry Creek
Salina 3.9 3.9 3.9 5.3 8.1 21.9 25.0
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria 5.9 6.2 7.8 11.5 16.8 21.5 26.6
Russell 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.8 7.8 8.8 9.6
Ellsworth 1.5 1.5 1.5 3.3 5.3 6.1 7.1
:Saline River
Russell 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.6 6.9 7.8 10.3
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 11/26/2024 - 02/24/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Salt Creek
Barnard 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
:Saline River
Lincoln 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
Mentor 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
:Mulberry Creek
Salina 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3
Russell 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
Ellsworth 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
:Saline River
Russell 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/ict for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued near the 25th of each month.
$$