514
FXUS63 KICT 311958
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
258 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler air remains in place through at least Monday with a
warming trend starting Tuesday and continuing through the work week.

- Storm chances look to return for Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the rest of today, guidance continues to suggest some isolated
showers moving from northeast to southwest across far southern
Kansas. However, the environment isn`t favorable for anything
substantial or severe, just enough instability for a quick passing
shower with maybe a rumble of thunder. The main talking point
through the weekend will be the below normal temperatures
filtering into the area behind the front. For today and Friday,
temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

This weekend, the ridge will strengthen across the Desert
Southwest leading to slowly increasing heights and northwest
flow across the state. Our highs for the weekend will reach into
the the 80s for most across the forecast area. Models suggest a
midlevel perturbation sweeping across the area on Saturday
night and Sunday which will increase rain and storm chances from
west to east. It looks like there will be decent instability in
place on Sunday with 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE and shear of around
30 kts. A few of these storms could be strong to severe with
gusty winds and large hail. This activity will push east and out
of the area overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

Temperatures will slowly increase next week with 90s starting to
creep back into central and southern Kansas on Tuesday as upper
level ridging continues to build to our west. By the middle of next
week the ridge will be centered over the Southern Plains.
Temperatures look to warm to around normal for this time of
year with lower to mid 90s areawide for Wednesday and Thursday.
With the return of ridging our precip chances will diminish for
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Scattered to overcast sky conditions with MVFR to VFR ceilings
expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Currently, MVFR to low-end VFR cigs cover much of the area
behind an anomalously strong cold front for this time of year.
Cigs around 2 kft to 3.5 kft are expected to persist across much
of the area through the TAF period. Ceilings should rise this
afternoon and evening, then fall again overnight and into Friday
morning. Wind continue out of the northeast this afternoon at
around 10 knots, through gusts up to 20 knots are possible from
time to time this afternoon. Winds will gradually turn to
easterly throughout the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JC