338
FXUS64 KHUN 061210
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
710 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

 - There is a low risk for severe thunderstorms (mainly across
   northwest AL) during the pre-dawn hours Today. Large hail and
   gusty winds be the main threat with a very low risk of a
   tornado.

 - A low risk for severe thunderstorms will continue this
   afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be damaging
   winds and large hail, with a low risk of a tornado or two.

 - There is a low to medium risk of excessive rainfall (with a low
   threat for localized flash flooding) through Tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Multiple clusters of deep convection have developed from southwest
TN through central AR into southeast OK within the maximum
moisture transport zone along a cold front. The activity has been
elevated thus far as outflow has been pushing southeast of the
updrafts. However, effective bulk shear of ~60kt and ample MUCAPE
will continue to provide at least a limited risk of large hail and
gusty winds. Damaging winds would appear unlikely unless the
storms become surface based. Expect the storms to track east
across north AL and southern middle TN from 08-14Z, with
additional clusters redeveloping late this morning into the midday
hours to our west and moving through during the afternoon. Inflow
dew points in the lower to middle 60s are found in MS into
southwest TN, which will eventually shift into north AL and
southern middle TN toward morning, and even reach the upper 60s to
around 70. PWs of 1.5 inches + are indicated which will lend
toward very heavy downpours. Outflow from the morning activity
may shift into our southern counties during the afternoon, which
may in turn shift the risk of surface based severe weather.
However, the risk for excessive rainfall and isolated flash
flooding may develop as repeated episodes of heavy downpours
occur north of the outflow. Forecast high temperatures will be in
the lower to middle 70s, only a couple degrees off of what we
have currently.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

With time, convection to the north of this feature (but south of
the cold front) will become elevated, but may still be capable of
producing locally strong winds and hail. Due to a favorable
environment for echo training and very moist tropospheric profile
(featuring PWAT values of 1.7-1.9"), most locations will receive
2-3 inches of rain by the time precipitation ends early Thursday
morning, which will increase the risk for flash/areal flooding
(especially tomorrow evening when rain and elevated convection
could become fairly widespread).

Dry weather will return during the period from Thursday-Friday,
as zonal flow aloft weakens and a ridge of surface high pressure
shifts from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and
off the coast of NC. As this occurs, northerly flow will subside
on Thursday night, setting the stage for cool overnight lows in
the m-u 40s. The onset of light southerly return flow on Friday
will boost highs back into the u60s-m70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

An upper level low pressure system situated over the Hudson Bay
region should slowly drift eastward from Ontario into Quebec as we
go through the weekend and early next week. This system will help
maintain general troughing along the eastern North American
domain. Lower heights as a result of large scale troughing will
tend to keep daily temperatures close to or below seasonable
norms. With the average trough weakening somewhat, it should not
be as chilly Friday night, with lows mostly in the lower 50s.

The cold front that went southward across the area during
Wednesday; by Friday evening should be stationary, extending in a
west to east manner from coastal Texas, across the Florida
Panhandle and off of the GA/FL coast. An overrunning of moisture
from the Gulf region, as well as upglide noted in the 300K region,
will make for an unsettled weekend across the Tennessee Valley.
The lifting of moisture in the lower altitudes as shown in the
isentropic view will bring lower end chances for showers mainly
over our more southern areas Friday night into Saturday night.
Deeper moisture returning northward will bring higher end rain
chances, along with some thunder mixed amongst the heavier showers
late Saturday into Sunday. Given that this setup is more of an
upglide/overrunning type event and there is minimal instability,
thunderstorms should remain "general" in intensity. Another cold
front should sweep in a west to east manner across the area late
Sunday into early Monday. Dry weather should return, just in time
for the new work week.

Far as temperatures, high temperatures Saturday, with more clouds
than sun and low rain chances to our south, should rise into the
mid/upper 70s. Even with rain chances, high temps Sunday should
rise into the lower 80s. Temperatures should cool down Sunday
night with lows in the mid/upper 50s. A bit cooler next Monday
with highs in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A line of storms is currently moving into MSL terminal and will
slide eastward to HSV in the next hour or so. MVFR conditions will
persist throughout the TAF period with moments of IFR in heavier
downpours. There will not be a persistent wash out of rain and
thunderstorms throughout the entire the period, however breaks in
the convection is hard to nail down thus updates may be needed
later on today. Showers/storms will come to an end ~08/09Z,
however MVFR CIGS will remain in until the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...JMS