Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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262 FXUS64 KHUN 230522 AAA AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 848 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Surface high pressure building in from the southeast Great Plains will help continue dry conditions across the Tennessee Valley. Area temperatures across this region ranged from the mid 30s at Ft Payne to the mid 40s at Muscle Shoals and Huntsville, with light winds. Although the high was nearing the area, overall thermal advection appeared more neutral as opposed to warm/cold. Thus overnight temperatures should cool into the low/mid 30s. Therefore will maintain the Frost Advisory. That said, those colder and more sheltered locations could chill to freezing for a short time. An item complicating the forecast is an area of stratus with cloud bases in the ~3000 ft AGL range over middle and eastern Tennessee. Model output was suggesting that this moisture, and associated clouds should move over the area in the overnight. Areas that have higher odds of being impacted would be more over the central and eastern areas. The clouds moving in would provide a moderation effect on cold temperatures, which would be more in-line with frosting as opposed to freezing. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 5h will become deamplified quickly Saturday into Sunday across much of the southern and central CONUS. The surface high will shift into the FL peninsula by Sunday. This will ensure a dry weekend with a warming trend. Morning lows Sunday will be in the middle 30s for most with perhaps a couple of spots in southern middle TN dipping to 32. High temperatures will reach the 50s Saturday and lower to middle 60s for valley areas (upper 50s Plateau areas) on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 A more active period will set up beginning Monday as upper ridging shifts east of the area and a trough nears from the central Plains. Will see moisture increase on Monday ahead of a cold front tied to the aforementioned trough and will result in the warmest day of the forecast period with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday afternoon. Will introduce low chances (20-30%) for rain Monday afternoon with high chances (70-80%) during the evening and overnight hours. Moisture looks to be a bit limited over the area with this system, so overall rainfall amounts look to be below 1/4" at this time. With limited instability, thunder chances remain very low at this time. The forecast for Tuesday looks cooler but dry at this time, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows will drop into the upper 30s/lower 40s Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is when our next system shifts east through the Plains and model guidance diverges from there. While the GFS favors more of a heavy rain event, the ECMWF takes the sfc low slightly farther north and puts us more in the warm sector. The exact track of the sfc low will make a big difference between just rain and potentially strong storms, but we continue to have very low confidence on how this system will set up over our area. What we do have confidence in is that the area will see at least some rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday and cooler temperatures will follow. Stay tuned for updates as the late-week system gets closer in time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will continue for the next hour or two, but MVFR CIGs may move over the HSV terminal by 7Z. This lower cloud deck will mainly encompass areas along and east of I-65, with lower confidence in this affecting northwest Alabama (and the MSL terminal). However, anticipating VFR conditions to return later tonight, with clear skies forecast by late morning/early afternoon on Saturday. Winds will be light to calm overnight, increasing to around 5 knots or less by tomorrow afternoon, then diminish to be light once again by Saturday evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for ALZ001>010-016. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...26