Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
225 FXUS66 KHNX 222357 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 357 PM PST Fri Nov 22 2024 .UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION... .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong winter storm system is forecast to impact Central California tonight through this weekend. Portions of the San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada Foothills may see moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times with moderate to heavy snowfall rates in the Sierra Nevada. 2. A Winter Storm Warning romaines in effect for the Sierra Nevada above 6,500 feet from 4 PM today through 4 PM Tuesday. Accumulations of 10 to 24 inches are possible with up to 4 feet at the high elevations. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles per hour. The probability of receiving 24 inches of snow by 10 PM Saturday is 55% for Tuolumne Meadows and 55% for Tioga Pass. 3. The probability of receiving at least one half inch of rain by 4 PM Saturday is 99% for Merced decreasing towards the south to 90% in Fresno, 45% in Visalia, and 5% in Bakersfield. && .DISCUSSION...The dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures which have prevailed across our area will soon be departing as the first strong winter storm of the season takes aim at central California. Satellite imagery continues to show a large quasi-stationary upper low off the PAC NW coast which is pulling up a surge of deep moisture and into northern California. This atmospheric river has been moving slowly southward toward the northern portions of our CWFA today with some areas just north of our CWFA picking up moderate to heavy rainfall. SREF is indicating the precipitation band will push into our CWFA this evening although the tining is a little slower than previously forecasted. the precipitation band will impact most of the CWFA north of Kern County by 09Z Saturday and into the entire CWFA except for the Kern County Desert areas by 18Z Saturday. Although the timing is slower, probabilities of moderate to locally heavy rainfall remain impressive. Snow levels will be above 8000 feet when the precipitation moves in tonight lowering to around 7000 feet by Saturday afternoon. Probability for 0.75 inches for selected cities on Saturday: Mariposa 100% Oakhurst 100% Merced: 85% Madera: 75% Fresno: 70% Visalia: 35% Coalinga: 15% Lemoore: 20% Hanford: 30% Porterville: 25% Bakersfield: 5% The main rain band with the first system is progged to move out of our area by Saturday night with unsettled weather and showery conditions prevailing across our area on Sunday. A second system is still progged to move across central CA on Monday night and Tuesday bringing additional precipitation to our area. This system is progged to be a bit cooler with snow levels expected to lower to 6000 to 6500 feet. An upper ridge is progged to build into CA by Thanksgiving day which will result in a trend toward drier conditions across our area later next week with night/morning fog possible in the San Joaquin Valley. Long range progs are continuing to show that it may stay calm through the first few days of December. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior until 06Z, when a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions begin, along with increasing areas of mountain obscuring IFR conditions. This is expected to continue through at least 24Z Satruday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 11/22/2024 15:18 EXPIRES: 11/23/2024 23:59 On Saturday November 23 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Kern County. Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ323-326>331. && $$ public/aviation...DAS idss...SM weather.gov/hanford