Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
134 FXUS66 KHNX 311835 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1135 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Near average temperatures are expected across much of the region into the weekend. There is a 20 to 50 percent chance to exceed 100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley Friday and Saturday. 2. Increased fire risk this weekend with widespread minimum relative humidity between 20 and 25 percent for the non-desert areas. MinRH expected less than 10 percent in the Mojave Desert with gusty winds in the afternoon to evening. 3. Slight cooling trend early next week before returning above triple digits. 15 to 25 percent chance for greater than 105 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley next Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Seasonal conditions are currently resent for central California as zonal flow is gradually setting up over the region. This pattern is resulting from a trough located over the northeast Pacific and an area of high pressure building over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures through the weekend are expected to be near average for this time of year, with widespread highs in the San Joaquin Valley in the upper 90s; there is also a 20 to 50 percent chance for triple-digit temperatures Friday and Saturday. The warming temperatures will result in a decrease in relative humidity over the area. Weekend minimum values of 20 to 25 percent are expected for the San Joaquin Valley, and Sierra foothill and mountain areas along with values less than 10 percent in the Kern Desert. There is also potential for gusty winds in the typical wind-prone locations, including Pacheco Pass, Lake Isabella, and the Mojave Slopes with the upcoming pattern. This may further enhance fire risk when combined with the lowered RH values. A brief cooldown is anticipated early next week as a shortwave low pressure trough passes through northern California and the Pacific Northwest. For Monday, there is less than a 40 to 50 percent chance to exceed 95 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley. This cooldown will quickly be replaced with a warming trend for the remainder of the week as high pressure builds in. There is a 35 to 85 percent chance for afternoon highs to exceed 100 degrees Wednesday through the weekend, and a low chance (15 to 25 percent) to exceed 105 degrees. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: VFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin Valley for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 07/30/2025 14:00 EXPIRES: 07/31/2025 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy idss.............Molina weather.gov/hanford