647
FXUS64 KHGX 192031
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
331 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper level ridging centered over the TX Big Bend/northern MX
remains strong, resulting in little weather pattern change across SE
TX. At the surface, high pressure system continues overhead, leading
to light to occasionally moderate warm and humid onshore flow.
Overall, this pattern will keep us under a mostly dry, humid and hot
pattern in the next few days. Highs will generally range into the low
to mid 90s. Continue practicing heat safety as afternoon heat
indices into the 100 to 107 degF range can be expected. A few showers
will continue to develop along the coast, more towards the
Matagorda/Palacios area. Decent moisture convergence (more likely due
to sea breeze), and PW values into the 1.8 - 2.1 inch range are
resulting in these light showers today and then again on Friday.

Mild nights with mostly clear skies can be expected. Light winds and
residual moisture will once again lead to areas of fog, some locally
dense, across portions of the region. Most of this activity will be
patchy and/or low-lying and should persist through mid Friday
morning.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The broad mid/upper ridge centered over the state on Sat is expected
to slowly expand east and flatten a bit as a series of strong short-
waves move across the Central/Northern Plains through the weekend on
into the start of next week. This strongly subsident pattern will be
keeping rain chances on the low to nil side for Sat/Sun...along with
the continuation of above normal temperatures. The best chances will
likely be near the coast with the seabreeze.

Heading into Mon, the weakening ridge aloft and a slight increase of
low-level moisture (from the Gulf) could allow for a more active sea
breeze through mid week. This could also help to lower the temperat-
ures a few degrees, but still above normal, unfortunately. Otherwise
regarding the other elephant in the room/tropics, extended models do
keep hinting at perhaps some possible development in the far western
Caribbean or southern Gulf in the long long range (later next week).
But, this is still a ways away and there are a lot of variables that
have yet to play out. So, the best advice is to just remain aware of
the latest forecasts from NHC, especially starting next week. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light SSE winds with SCT mid clouds are expected this afternoon.
A few light showers will also be possible near the coastal
terminals through late this afternoon. Tonight, periods of MVFR to
IFR conditions due to fog are possible through 13-15Z Friday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF
cycle.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The forecast will continue to highlight light onshore winds and low
seas (1-3 ft) through the next several days, including the weekend.
Scattered showers and isolated storms are possible over the Gulf by
the latter part of the weekend into early next week. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  98  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  96  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  89  80  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41