Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
424 FXUS64 KHGX 311712 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1212 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Daily risk of showers/thunderstorms through early next week. - Locally heavy rainfall is expected. There is a marginal risk of excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) capable of localized flooding both on Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas. - Next week features seasonably hot/humid conditions and a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Through the weekend, southeast Texas will be under the influence of a mid-level trough and deep tropical moisture. This will keep a daily chance of at least isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall is likely. Therefore, we cannot rule out localized flooding. Not every neighborhood will receive rainfall every day. However, a weak frontal boundary is expected to push southward into our region on Saturday, further enhancing LL lift. Therefore, the best chance of more numerous thunderstorms is on Saturday. By early next week, a ridge builds to our west while a trough digs over the Mississippi River Valley. The influence of the trough may continue the daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Monday and Tuesday. Beyond then, the ridge may prove more dominant, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, we expect seasonably hot and humid conditions. Forecast highs generally average in the mid 90s. But highs will likely vary based off who gets shower/thunderstorm activity. Drier sunnier spots will easily reach the upper 90s. Areas that receive rainfall fairly early in the day and/or more cloud cover could struggle to hit 90. Regardless, it will feel hot and sticky outside. Specifically for today, temperatures could surpass the 100 degree mark in the Brazos Valley due to the drier air mass in place. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 All sites at VFR currently. A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving into the Gulf Waters, though some of the line extends inland and may impact GLS in the next hour or two. If this line holds together, it may also impact LBX. Uncertainty lies in how far inland this line will extend as it moves through, and this could impact HOU if any further development occurs. This line should be through the area by mid-morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the evening hours with sea breeze activity. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to persist with winds light out of the SW becoming more southerly through the afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Winds and seas are expected to be generally low through early next week. However, there will also be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy thunderstorms are likely. Higher winds and rougher seas are possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. Thunderstorm related winds can sometimes extend far beyond the storm. Therefore, it is advised to frequently check the forecast for updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 100 76 96 / 10 30 30 50 Houston (IAH) 79 98 79 97 / 10 50 40 60 Galveston (GLS) 83 93 82 91 / 20 50 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Self