292
FXHW60 PHFO 260828
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1028 PM HST Sun Jan 25 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated to include newly issued Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface ridge will maintain light winds and rather dry
conditions over much of the state tonight as an advancing front
produces increased clouds and showers on Kauai. The front will
bring a period of trade winds and showers to mainly windward
Kauai and Oahu on Monday and may reach as far as Maui. The front
will dissipate and lift northward Monday night as winds shift out
of the southeast. A surface ridge will settle over the islands
Tuesday and produce a somewhat dry land and sea breeze pattern
through Thursday. Another weak front may affect portions of the
state Thursday night into Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 833 PM HST Sun Jan 25 2026/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...
A cold front is approaching Kauai County this evening, bringing
abundant clouds along with scattered showers and gusty northeast
winds. These initially northeast winds will quickly become
easterly Monday. This was handled well by the previous forecast
and is described more fully below in the previous discussion. We
have done a minor update this evening to increase cloud cover and
chance of showers over the western end of the state through
Monday morning. New forecast will be out shortly.

SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface ridge will maintain light winds and rather dry
conditions over much of the state tonight as an advancing front
produces increased clouds and showers on Kauai. The front will
bring a period of trade winds and showers to mainly windward
Kauai and Oahu on Monday and may reach as far as Maui. The front
will dissipate and lift northward Monday night as winds shift out
of the southeast. A surface ridge will settle over the islands
Tuesday and produce a somewhat dry land and sea breeze pattern
through Thursday. Another weak front may affect portions of the
state Thursday night into Saturday.

AVIATION...
A approaching weak front from the northwest will bring an increase
of showers as it reaches Kauai tonight, Oahu by daybreak, and
stall out near Maui County Monday. Light winds will prevail over
most islands but the front will bring an increase of showers and
breezy easterly trade winds on Monday. MVFR ceilings and
visibility associated with the cold front will linger from Kauai
through Monday County through Monday afternoon. Winds look to
weaken and veer as light to moderate east to southeast winds will
fill in by Monday night.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect, however AIRMET Sierra will
likely go into effect later tonight into tomorrow due to the
approaching front.

MARINE...
Fresh northerly winds associated with a front settling southward
into the region will gradually spread across the Kauai waters
late tonight, then expand into the waters north of Oahu by
daybreak Monday. Locally stronger terrain-driven winds along the
leeward and windward coasts of Kauai may briefly approach or reach
Small Craft Advisory levels during this period. The latest
guidance shows this boundary stalling and gradually weakening as
it lingers from east to west across the smaller islands through
Monday. High pressure building north of the area in its wake will
allow northerly winds to veer easterly on Monday. For Maui County
and the Big Island waters, light winds will prevail overnight,
then gradually shift out of the east and increase into the light
to moderate range through the day Monday.

The progressive pattern across the region continues thereafter,
with another front approaching by midweek. As the ridge axis
shifts southward over the islands, winds will veer to the south to
southeast Monday night through Tuesday. This front could reach
the Kauai waters late in the week.

Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will remain
small through Monday as the medium-period northwest swell that
arrived Sunday continues to ease. Combined with fresh northeast
breezes, this will lead to rough and choppy conditions along
northern exposures of Kauai, and potentially Oahu early Monday
depending on how far south the boundary settles.

A fresh, medium-period northwest swell generated by a broad
storm-force low tracking eastward near the Aleutians will arrive
Monday night, then shift out of the north-northwest and peak
Tuesday night. Surf may approach advisory levels before gradually
easing Wednesday into Thursday.

Another larger northwest swell is expected later this week as a
broad and complex low evolves over the far northwest Pacific. This
swell will begin building down the island chain Thursday and
could become a long-duration event, with a peak centered around
the Friday through Saturday time frame. Some uncertainty remains
regarding the magnitude and timing, as the ECMWF and GFS continue
to depict differences in the evolution of this system.

Surf along east-facing shores will briefly trend upward as the
trades return Monday, with the highest surf expected along Kauai
and Oahu. This will be short-period and choppy, driven primarily
by locally generated wind waves, and should be short-lived. A
downward trend is anticipated by Tuesday as winds shift toward the
south and upstream trade flow remains absent.

Surf along south-facing shores may also see a slight uptick by
Tuesday as a small, background long-period south swell arrives.
This source is expected to ease by midweek.

PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 320 PM HST JAN 25 2026
A surface ridge stretching across the island chain is producing
rather dry conditions over all islands except Kauai. On the
Garden Isle, convergent southerly winds ahead of an approaching
front has been generating scattered showers through much of the
day, but rainfall totals have been unimpressive at one tenth of
an inch or less. Elsewhere, daytime sea breezes have produced
some interior clouds, but little if any rainfall has been
measured.

Expect continued dry conditions and light winds for most islands
tonight as a front brings an increase in showers and a short-lived
burst of fresh northeasterly winds to Kauai. The somewhat shallow
front will spread to Oahu near daybreak and may bring a brief
return of trade winds and increased showers to windward portions
of Maui County before stalling on Monday. Showers will diminish
Monday night as the front dissipates and slowly lifts northward on
developing southeasterly winds. Due to the recent eruption at
Kilauea, volcanic emissions (vog) will likely be noticeable from
the Big Island to at least Oahu during this time.

Another period of somewhat dry conditions with light winds is in
store Tuesday through Thursday, as a surface ridge redevelops
over the islands. Winds will initially start as southerlies and
will become variable by late Wednesday. Regardless, overnight land
breezes and daytime sea breezes will likely overpower the
background flow, leading to mostly dry conditions at night and
afternoon clouds with a few showers each day.

Another weak front may move down parts of the island chain
Thursday night into Saturday. Significant timing differences
persist between the operational GFS and ECMWF runs, but at this
time, neither model is suggesting a threat for heavy rainfall.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters.


&&

$$


UPDATE...Parker
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Gibbs
PREV DISCUSSION...Wroe