686
FXHW60 PHFO 090139
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
339 PM HST Fri May 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will gradually move east to west across the
islands tonight through Saturday, resulting in relatively light
winds and a combination of trade showers and sea-breeze showers
(during the afternoons). As this trough dissipates, trades will
build in stronger Saturday night through Sunday, and even stronger
trades are forecast for next week from Tuesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar show showers, mainly windward and mauka, over Kauai and
Niihau this afternoon. An increase in showers across the Big
Island is expected soon, and is likely also on windward
(northeast) Maui and Molokai. Satellite indicates low clouds over
or near the higher terrain on each island, along with wispy high
clouds streaming in from the southwest. These higher clouds should
continue through the night, while the lower clouds will diminish
in most areas after sunset.

A weak surface trough was located between Maui County and the Big
Island as of 3 PM HST this afternoon. This feature will slowly
drift westward, reaching Kauai Sunday. Trade winds will build in
behind this trough, moving in from east to west through this
weekend. Wind speeds will initially be light to moderate, but will
become moderate to occasionally breezy early next week. This
trough will keep winds weak enough to allow for sea-breeze showers
to occasionally develop over leeward areas, even as trade winds
build in and bring their typical windward-focused showers.

While that is occurring at the surface, the flow aloft will change
significantly. We will transition from weak troughing to our
north this weekend to the rapid development of a closed ridge to
our northwest by Monday. This ridge will become elongated along an
east-west axis and remain with us all next week. Its presence
will keep a surface ridge in place, allowing the trades to blow at
least through the end of next week, and likely longer. This means
trade wind showers, mainly windward and mauka, will be the rule
for quite a while. There will be occasional fluctuations in
available moisture throughout this period, and these will result
in periods of enhanced shower activity from time to time. The
timing is impossible to nail down more than a few days in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local sea breezes will gradually become light to moderate trade
winds tonight, then eventually locally breezy tomorrow through the
weekend. Clouds and showers over leeward and interior areas this
afternoon will likely decrease tonight and trade winds will push
the showers over the typical windward and mountain areas.

VFR conditions will mostly prevail, however some brief MVFR
conditions are possible in any showers.

AIRMET Sierra for mtn obscuration is in place over Kauai and Oahu
due to lingering showers, this AIRMET could stay in place for
Kauai for much of the night, as model guidance indicates that
moisture could linger through the night and tomorrow morning. Also
there will be potential for AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence
once the trade winds pick up.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak trough northeast of the islands will keep trade winds
light to locally moderate across all local waters tonight.
However, a strengthening surface ridge northwest of the state will
bring a return of moderate to locally fresh trades by Sunday. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the typical windy waters
surrounding Maui and the Big Island as early as Saturday night.
Trade winds will continue to strengthen as the high expands
eastward early next week.

A declining moderate, medium-period, northwest swell will continue to
bring elevated surf to north and west facing shores tonight. This
swell and associated surf will slowly fade through the weekend. A
new small, medium-period northwest swell arrives on Saturday,
leading to a small bump in north and west shore surf on Sunday.
For the first half of next week, surf will be small with the lack
of any significant northerly swell energy.

A small, long-period south swell should provide a small bump in south
shore surf through Saturday. Sunday into next week, background swell
energy will keep small surf along south-facing shores.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain below normal this weekend,
but will gradually increase through next week as trade winds gradually
strengthen.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Quesada