659
FXHW60 PHFO 270620
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
820 PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds and fair weather will persist across the state over
the next several days. A weak front will approach late Thursday
and will bring an increase of showers over the smaller islands on
Friday with moisture lingering over the eastern half of the state
Friday night into Saturday. Some periods of light to moderate rain
is expected especially over windward and mauka areas during this
time. A much stronger front is possible early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026

No changes need to be made to the forecast this evening. The front
that moved through much of the state earlier today has now moved
off to the northeast. It has left high relative humidities in its
wake, resulting in areas of low clouds over most islands. No
showers were seen on radar as of 8:15 PM HST. Tuesday through
Wednesday should be mostly dry with light winds allowing sea-
breezes in the afternoon and land-breezes overnight. The latest
guidance still shows a weak front moving slowly across the state
from Thursday night through Saturday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION....
Issued at 350 PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026

Satellite imagery shows that the front has dissipated, but we are
still seeing some lingering clouds and some light showers this
afternoon for parts of Oahu and Kauai. For rest of the day and
tonight, we will continue to see some moisture linger around the
western half of the state with some clouds and possibly a few
showers. Otherwise for the eastern half of the state, any clouds
this afternoon should be on the decrease this evening and tonight
as land breezes develop.

From Tuesday through Thursday, we should see a fair weather
pattern due to a ridge of high pressure over the state. Light
winds will allow sea breezes to develop by late morning, which
should allow for some afternoon clouds over interior and mountain
areas. For the most part, it should mainly be just afternoon cloud
build ups, but a few light showers can`t be ruled out each
afternoon.

Around Thursday night, global models are in fairly good agreement
with a weak front approaching from the northwest and pushing
through the smaller islands on Friday. Models are showing the
front stalling out and weakening over parts of Maui County and the
Big Island Friday night into Saturday. Shower activity will
generally increase across many areas, but the most frequent shower
activity will be confined to windward and mauka areas, where brief
periods of some moderate rainfall will be possible. The threat for
heavy rain or thunderstorms will be minimal due to stable
conditions aloft during this time.

In the extended, long range models are showing a deep upper level
trough developing over the area early next week with a strong cold
front making its way through the state. At this time, the front is
looking progressive and will likely bring a quick shot of heavy
rain and thunderstorms. Stay tuned for more updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 817 PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026

Moisture along the remnants of a front will gradually lift to the
north tonight as gentle to moderate southeasterly winds develop.
The front stalled this morning and brought widespread MVFR
conditions to windward and northern terrain of Kauai, Oahu, and
Molokai. Conditions have improved on Molokai as the front started
dissipating, but AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in
effect on Oahu and Kauai. As high pressure moves northeast of the
state tonight, the gentle to moderate trades will veer out of the
southeast, pushing remnant frontal moisture northward and
improving conditions on Oahu and Kauai. AIRMET Sierra may be
lifted as early as late afternoon on Oahu and should be dropped
everywhere by midnight. On Maui and Big Island, VFR will prevail.

On Tuesday, a surface ridge will develop over the island chain and
drive gentle to moderate southeast to south winds. Some interior
clouds and isolated showers will form in the afternoon, but VFR
will likely dominate.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 817 PM HST Mon Jan 26 2026

Easterly trades will begin to veer southeast overnight and
persist across the eastern end of the state through the second
half of the week. Meanwhile, winds over the western end of the
state will veer to the south-southwest through Tuesday as the
surface ridge settles southward over the islands in response to a
progressive pattern featuring a couple of fronts moving through
the region. The first front is expected to pass north of the state
during the midweek period, while a second front could reach the
Kauai waters by Friday. While most coastal areas will experience
typical overnight land breezes and afternoon sea breezes, terrain-
induced accelerations could lead to brief periods of locally
enhanced winds where the flow becomes channeled parallel to the
coast.

Surf along north- and west-facing shores will trend upward early
Tuesday through midweek as a fresh, medium-period northwest swell
arrives. This swell was generated by a broad storm-force low
tracking eastward near the Aleutians over the weekend, and surf
may reach advisory levels by late Tuesday before gradually easing
Wednesday into Thursday.

A larger northwest swell is expected later this week from a broad
and complex low over the far northwest Pacific. Latest analysis
and satellite imagery show a 966 mb low centered east of the
Kurils, with a large area of gale- to storm-force winds directed
toward the islands from the west-northwest to northwest (290 to
320 degrees). This swell will begin building down the island chain
Thursday and could become a long-duration event, with a peak
centered around the Friday through Saturday time frame. Heights
will exceed advisory levels by late Thursday afternoon, then
exceed warning levels Friday into Saturday.

Surf along east-facing shores will ease into Tuesday due to a
combination of the local winds shifting southerly and the lack of
trades upstream of the state.

South-facing shore surf may trend up slightly Tuesday as a result
of a small, background long-period south swell. This swell will
ease by mid week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Parker
DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Gibbs