Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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589
FXHW60 PHFO 091945
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
945 AM HST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stable and breezy trade wind weather will prevail through late
next week, with embedded low clouds and showers occasionally
moving through the islands. Rainfall will favor windward slopes
and coasts, particularly at night and during the early morning
hours, with a few showers reaching leeward areas at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A high far north of the main Hawaiian Islands is driving moderate
to breezy trade winds across local waters this morning. Satellite
loop shows scattered to patchy broken low clouds embedded within
this flow piling up across windward and mauka sections of most
islands. Leeward areas tend to have clearer skies, along with
waters lee of the islands. Radar shows scattered to numerous
showers moving into windward areas, with a few of these showers
pushing leeward.

Models show the high to our north will shift east and merge with
a new building high to the distant northeast of the islands by
late Sunday. This will keep the pressure gradient across the
islands sufficiently steep to support breezy trade winds through
the period. Trades could become quite strong late next week as
the high moves southward and closer to the island chain.

Expect a typical trade wind weather pattern for the next week or
so, with embedded bands of low clouds and showers moving through.
Rainfall will favor windward slopes and coasts, particularly at
night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers
reaching leeward areas at times as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend, with
scattered showers primarily affecting windward and mountain areas.
Lingering low-level moisture from a dissipated front will keep
trade wind showers on the wetter side through the rest of this
morning. Isolated MVFR conditions will be confined to windward
areas, while VFR will dominate leeward areas.

AIRMET Tango for moderate low level turbulence remains in effect
over and down wind of all island mountains due to the breezy
trade wind flow.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the north of the state will shift to the north
and east over the next several days and will maintain fresh to
locally strong northeasterly trades through at least the middle of
next week. A strong high pressure is then forecast to develop
around the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in effect for the windier waters around Maui County and
the Big Island and could be expanded to include additional waters
next week. In the extended, there is growing confidence for trades
to further strengthen as a northeast Pacific high becomes
increasingly dominant. Strong trade winds could become widespread
during the second half of next week with even gales possible for
select channels.

The current medium period NNW (320-350 degree) swell will
gradually decline through Monday. A moderate NW (320 degree) swell
is expected to take its place on Monday and will likely peak near
advisory levels Monday evening. This swell will be followed by a
larger NW (320 degree) swell filling in on Wednesday, which
should produce advisory level surf for N and W facing shores. Surf
along east- facing shores will remain rough and choppy through
the middle of next week due to the breezy trade winds. Long range
models are showing a significant increase of windswell towards the
latter half of next week due to a large fetch of strong trade
winds setting up over and upstream of the state. Surf should easily
reach advisory thresholds (10 ft) and it may reach warning levels
(15 ft) along east facing shores during its peak.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small and near the
seasonal average through the middle of next week. Tiny long-period
pulses will be possible over the next few days.

Also with the peak monthly tides coming up towards the latter
half of next week (Nov 14th to Nov 18th) we could see coastal
inundation impacts during the early morning hours along all
coastlines. The large windswell combined with the peak monthly
tides could cause greater impacts along windward shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Tsamous