707
FXHW60 PHFO 271312
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
312 AM HST Tue Jan 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridging aloft will bring us a couple days of weak sea-breeze
winds and limited showers. A weak front is forecast to slowly
cross the state from Thursday night through Saturday night,
increasing showers from west to east. Sunday will become more
humid as southerly winds increase ahead of yet another front. This
one will move in Monday through Monday night, and has the
potential to bring strong winds and heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM HST Tue Jan 27 2026

Skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the state this morning,
with little in the way of showers showing up on radar. Rainfall
reports indicated that very light rain was falling on parts of
Kauai, Oahu, and southeast Big Island. Winds were light and mostly
southeast or downslope.

Upper level ridging extending into the region from the west will
hold firm through Wednesday night. Thursday, weak northwest flow
aloft builds south into the area just far enough to push a weak
front slowly through the state Thursday night through Saturday
night.

The influence of the ridge today and Wednesday will bring us
light winds, allowing sea- and land-breezes to develop each day
and night, respectively. Showers will be isolated to scattered and
largely determined by weak southeast surface winds and
interactions of sea-breezes and terrain.

As a weak cold front moves in Thursday night, reaching Kauai
County around midnight. There will be a minimal increase in
showers and winds will become north and then northeast. This
slow-moving front is expected to reach Oahu Friday, Maui County
Friday evening, and the Big Island Friday overnight. It is
forecast to stall near Big Island Saturday, then pull north
Sunday.

Sunday, as yet another, stronger, front moves toward the state,
southerly winds ahead of it will bring enhanced moisture into the
area, leading to an increase in humidity and showers. Monday into
Monday night, as the front moves into the state, winds ahead of
it will become southwest and could become strong. The potential
exists for strong winds and brief heavy rain, even as there is
still model disagreement on how far into the state the front will
progress.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 311 AM HST Tue Jan 27 202

Light southeasterly winds have cleared skies overnight over the
region. High pressure north of the islands will maintain light
southeast winds today. This will bring some interior clouds and
showers during the afternoon, that are expected to dissipate
overnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM HST Tue Jan 27 2026

Light winds will prevail through Thursday as the surface ridge
settles southward over the islands. The background flow will
remain out of the southeast for Maui and the Big Island waters
and out of the south to southwest over the Kauai and Oahu waters.
While most coastal areas will experience typical overnight land
breezes and afternoon sea breezes, terrain-induced accelerations
will lead to brief periods of locally enhanced winds where the
flow parallels to the coast, particularly through the afternoon
hours. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will gradually fill in on
Friday as a cold front moves into the area.

Surf along north- and west-facing shores will trend up through
the day as a medium-period northwest swell builds down the island
chain. Heights could near the advisory levels by tonight before
gradually easing Wednesday into Thursday.

A larger northwest swell is expected later this week from a broad
and complex low over the far northwest Pacific. Latest analysis
and satellite imagery show a 966 mb low centered east of the
Kurils, with a large area of gale- to storm-force winds focused
at the islands within the 290 to 320 degree directional bands.
This swell will begin building down the island chain Thursday and
could become a long-duration event, with a peak centered around
the Friday through Saturday time frame. Heights will exceed
advisory levels by late Thursday afternoon, then exceed warning
levels Friday into Saturday.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain small each day due to a
combination of the local winds shifting southerly and the lack of
trades upstream of the state.

Surf along south-facing shores will trend up slightly today as a
background, long-period south swell arrives. Offshore buoys to
the south have started showing this pulse within the 15 to 17
second bands. This swell will ease by mid week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Gibbs