Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
557 FXUS61 KGYX 211833 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 133 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly quiet and seasonable weather into early next week outside a couple of passing disturbances tonight and Sunday night. High pressure moves offshore early next week allowing for a warming trend into the middle of next week. Chances for precipitation will increase late Tuesday into Wednesday with mainly rain south of the mountains. A cold front then crosses Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overcast skies this afternoon should form some breaks this evening as warm front lifts north and cold front passes tonight. The frontal passage is now expected to be mostly dry, with some snow/snow showers set for the mountains. Breeze overnight and some clouds will keep temps warmer tonight despite early CAA. Lows around freezing can be expected for the coast and portions of the interior, while mid to upper 20s move into the north and west. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave will pivot through cyclonic flow on Saturday. This will tighten the pressure gradient and supply some forcing for a breezy day and additional mountain snow showers. Low level lapse rates are actually quite impressive towards the US/CAN border. The combination of low level moisture, winds, and lift could lead to some short lived heavy snow showers on the N/NW side of the mountains through Saturday afternoon. Froude numbers do indicate clouds and precip may spill over the mtn ridges into the foothills, but currently think downsloping will be enough to dry the low levels with just some gusts and virga making it through. Snow showers will end early evening with the loss of moisture and added instability. While clouds stick around through the mountains, the coast and interior should remain mostly clear. As winds fall off, conditions should be favorable for a return to cold nights. Lows in the low 20s will be likely for much of the forecast area, colder in good radiational cooling locations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview: High pressure briefly noses into the area Sunday morning before the next short wave crosses Sunday night bringing mainly mountain snow showers. High pressure returns Monday and shifts offshore Tuesday. Return flow around the high will produce a warming trend into Wednesday while a broad trough over the central US slides east. The warm air advection regime will bring increasing chances for precipitation late Tuesday through Wednesday with a wintry mix possible to start across the north and mainly rain south of the mountains. The trough will begin to lift northeast into Canada with a cold front crossing Thursday. Impacts: *Precipitation is likely heading into the busy travel day ahead of Thanksgiving. At this time range precipitation looks light with temperatures warm enough to limit the threat of widespread wintry precipitation. Details: Sunday will be seasonable with highs in the 30s to low 40s. The approaching short wave will bring increasing clouds through the day and chances for snow showers in the mountains. High pressure brings mostly fair weather Monday with highs ranging from the low 30s north to mid 40s south. High pressure will shift offshore Tuesday setting up a warm air advection pattern over the area into Wednesday. WAA/overrunning precipitation will break out Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Will have to watch temperature trends closely as the overrunning setup could lead to a wintry mix across the northern half of the area Tuesday night. Temperatures will continue their upward trend Wednesday with highs into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Model solutions diverge in handling the main piece of energy within the trough that approaches Wednesday. Most model solutions take the best forcing west of the area resulting in showery weather Wednesday with a cold front crossing Thursday. Temperatures will return closer to seasonal normals behind the front through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Periods of MVFR ceilings continue this afternoon before gradually lifting as a cold front passes tonight. Depending on coverage, some locations in southern NH may have VCFG come early Sat AM. Winds shift WNW Saturday with gusts 15-20 kt. Terminals near Whites and western ME mountains will see isolated SHSN through Sat afternoon which could cause intermittent vis reduction and locally stronger gusts. Winds subside Sat night with lowered ceilings continuing for terminals NW of the mountains. Long Term...Mainly VFR Sunday into Tuesday, except at KHIE where SHSN will bring potential for restrictions Sunday night. Chances for precipitation increase late Tuesday into Wednesday bring potential for at least MVFR at times across all sites. && .MARINE... Short Term...A cold front will cross the waters tonight, shifting winds WNW for Saturday. Gusts through the period will top out around 20 kt, but could see a few gusts to 25 kt this evening and again Saturday evening. Long Term...Winds and seas generally remain below SCA thresholds Sunday into Wednesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cornwell SHORT TERM...Cornwell LONG TERM...Schroeter