011
FXUS61 KGYX 032149
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
549 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place and continue to dominate our
local weather into the first part of next week. High temperatures
will stay well above normal through the start of the work week.
Some temperatures in the 80s will be possible each day Saturday
through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region around
Wednesday and bring back normal temperatures along with our next
chance at rainfall. Dry conditions likely return for the end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
545 PM Update... Went ahead and lowered forecast low
temperatures by a few degrees, especially in the normally colder
valleys. This is based on the very dry airmass that is in place
and the past few night`s forecast bias. Some patchy frost cannot
be ruled out across some interior valleys. Otherwise, just
loaded in the latest observations at this time.


Previously...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected.

A shortwave trough begins to push a cold front toward the
region tonight, but all signals in the hi-res guidance suggest
that any showers that form along it will dry up before it gets
into our area. Clear skies and light winds lead to some degree
of radiational cooling tonight, but with the warmer airmass
continuing to build in lows look to be about 10 degrees warmer
than last night. After nudging NBM lows down with some MOS
guidance, widespread low to mid- 40s are what we are looking at,
with upper 40s closer to the coast and in the usually warmer
spots. Would expect some patchy valley fog to develop again as
well, but the drier airmass will work to reduce coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected.

The shortwave and attendant weak front begin to push into the
area on Saturday. With the increasingly drier airmass overhead,
don`t expect any precipitation, but it may at least bring some
scattered clouds and cooler temperatures to the mountains.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies allow temperatures to climb into
the upper 70s to low 80s south of the mountains, and into the
low to mid-70s to the north.

500mb ridging begins to move overhead Saturday night so another
night of clear skies and light winds will lead to good cooling,
but with the warming airmass expect a similar night with low
temperatures only bottoming out in the upper 40s to low 50s
south of the mountains, and in the mid- to upper 40s to the
north. Some patchy fog may develop in some valley locations, but
the drier air will become an increasingly limiting factor over
the next couple of nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mostly sunny conditions continue with well-above normal
temperatures Sun-Tues thanks to an anomalously strong 500mb
ridge over the Northeast. Temperatures are forecast to reach the
upper 70s to lower 80s over most of the region each of these
days, potentially even nearing daily record highs, especially at
AUG and PWM (see climate section below).

The ridge shifts east on Tuesday as a cold front approaches,
bringing the next chance of rain in the late Tuesday into
Wednesday timeframe. Models may be a little quicker in the FROPA
with latest models runs and are in relatively good agreement on
the timing. First the good news: there is a strong signal in
the ensembles that most areas still receive rain. The not so
good news is that there is a trend in less rainfall with this
system with most ensemble members now advertising less than a
half inch of rain. So relief from the drought is looking
unlikely.

Temperatures start to come down with the front on Wednesday,
and then Thursday and Friday likely return to dry conditions
(except maybe a few upslope showers in the mountains) with
cooler and closer to normal temperatures as high pressure builds
into the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR is expected to prevail through Saturday night
as high pressure remains over the region. Some patchy fog is
possible near valley terminals, but drier air will become an
increasingly limiting factor over the next couple of nights. No
significant wind or low level wind shear is expected through
Saturday night.

Long Term...Primarily VFR Sunday through at least the first
part of Tuesday with the exception of valley fog at night/early
morning, mainly at LEB and HIE. A cold front then approaches
toward the middle of next week, bringing a chance of rain and
possible restrictions from late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure over the waters will keep wind gusts
and seas below SCA criteria. Southwesterly winds shift more
northwesterly tonight, then back to southwesterly for Saturday
as a seabreeze attempts to develop once again.

Long Term...High pressure will be situated to the south and
east of the waters Sunday through early next week with a
prevailing south to southwest flow. A cold front will approach
and cross around midweek, and the S/SW winds winds ahead of the
front may increase to SCA levels. The northerly flow behind the
front could also be above criteria, but conditions should
improve by the end of next week as high pressure settles into
the New England.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be flirting with records the next few days as
an anomalously strong 580+dam ridge builds over the area by
Monday. Here are some of the records to watch.

               Oct 4       Oct 5       Oct 6       Oct 7
Concord      84(2023)    86(1926)    84(1990)    90(1963)
Manchester   87(1891)    86(2007)    82(2007)    82(2005)
Portland     82(1941)    81(1946)    84(1947)    84(1947)
Augusta      82(2023)    80(2007)    78(1963)    83(1990)

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs