490
FXUS62 KGSP 060534
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
134 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure system lifts northeastward from the
Carolina coast tonight allowing brief drying to develop tonight into
early Friday. A cold front brings back scattered to numerous
thunderstorms this the weekend with a few possibly becoming strong
to severe, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Unsettled
weather will stick around through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1010 PM EDT Thursday: Low-level flow is turning from NELY
to NLY behind a departing sfc low, currently over south-central
NC. This is advecting a little bit of dry air that is scouring
out most of the low clouds and also allowing convection to taper
off. Guidance still not too excited about dense fog potential,
but wouldn`t be surprised if there isn`t some patchy dense fog late
tonight into early Fri morning, as near-sfc air remains moist and
winds become calm or light/variable. At the very least, areas of
low stratus may form. Min temps will be a little above normal.

A radically different weather regime is in store for Friday, as any
low clouds will quickly mix out during the morning under W/NW low
level flow. Strong insolation and weak compressional warming will
result in max temps a good 5 degrees above normal, with highs of 90
expected across a good portion of the SC/GA/southern NC Piedmont.
This will result in good destabilization, with sbCAPE of at least
2000 J/kg by the time of peak heating. Scattered convection should
fire by mid-afternoon near the Blue Ridge and move E/SE into
the foothills during late afternoon. By the end of the period,
additional convection is likely to move into the CWA from east
Tennessee in advance of a short wave trough. General 50-60 PoPs
are advertised across the mountains...tapering to 20-30% across
the Piedmont. Instability should be sufficient to allow for a
few strong- to-severe storms, especially later in the day, when
improving wind fields are expected to result in deep layer shear
increasing to 25-30 kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather Continues into the Weekend

2) Strong to Severe Storms Possible Each Afternoon and Evening

3) Breezy Winds will Develop Each Afternoon and Evening

An MCS will track across the forecast area Friday evening into
Friday night. A weakening trend is expected as it pushes across the
southern Appalachians so confidence on the severe weather potential
remains low, especially with the line coming through outside of peak
heating hours. A few strong to severe storms cannot be entirely
ruled out, mainly across the SW NC mountains Friday evening into
Friday night. The main hazard with any severe storms that manage to
develop are damaging wind gusts. Another round of convection will
develop well ahead of a cold front on Saturday afternoon and
evening, and with 1,000-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of deep
layer shear in place, scattered strong to severe storms are
possible. SPC has the entire forecast area in a Slight Risk for
Saturday and this looks well placed. The main hazard with any severe
storms on Saturday will be damaging wind gusts. The cold front will
continue progressing eastward on Sunday, pushing across the western
half of the forecast area towards the end of the period. Another
round of strong to severe storms will be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours with similar parameters (compared to
Saturday) developing ahead of the front. Once again damaging wind
gusts look to be the main hazard with any severe storms that
develop. Breezy winds will develop each afternoon and evening
through the weekend ahead of the front but will remain well below
advisory criteria. Highs will end up 3-5 degrees above normal on
Saturday, climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s east of the
mountains. Highs on Sunday will a few degrees cooler, ending up near
to a few degrees below normal. Lows will remain a few to several
degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather Lingers through the Long Term

2) Strong to Severe Storms are Possible Each Afternoon and Evening

3) Above Normal Highs Return Monday before Below Normal Highs
Develop the Rest of the Period

Another cold front will approach out of the west Monday into early
Tuesday before tracking across the forecast area late Tuesday into
Wednesday. The front will push east of the forecast area by early
Thursday. This will allow unsettled weather to linger throughout the
long term, with convection expected to develop each afternoon and
evening. The strong to severe storm potential will be in place each
day, with ample shear and instability in place ahead of the front.
The strong to severe threat may linger behind the front on Thursday
with instability returning. However, with shear expected to be lower
(20 kts or less) behind the front, confidence on the severe
potential for Thursday is low at this time. Highs will rebound to a
few degrees normal on Monday before highs drop a few degrees below
normal Tuesday into Thursday. Lows will remain a few to several
degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR to IFR cigs are spreading across the
area as low-level moisture expands from the east, with mountain
valley fog/low stratus also increasing in extent. Outside of the
mountain valleys (where earlier rainfall will allow restrictions to
sock KAVL in to VLIFR), mixing continues to favor the low stratus
over the fog for KCLT/KHKY, but an area of mid-level cloudiness may
inhibit lower cloud development for the Upstate sites. Rapid
improvement with sunrise. Continued PROB30 for all but KCLT and KAND
for aftn/eve TSRA coverage. Lgt/vrb winds through the late overnight
hours will pick up 5-10kt out of the SW to W this afternoon.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TDP