910
FXUS63 KGRR 020745
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
245 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for precipitation remain for Tuesday

- Warm and wet Thursday through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Low chances for precipitation remain for Tuesday and Wednesday

Quite a dry air mass in place over the area this morning, at the
surface and aloft. Surface dew points are in the single digits to
lower teens, allowing temps to fall quite a bit with clear skies and
light winds. This dry air mass will allow temps to warm quickly
today with plenty of sunshine expected to hold. We should see
temperatures 10+ degrees warmer compared to Sunday with a southerly
component to the wind helping bring warmer air aloft over the area.

Clouds will be on the increase tonight as we see some upper jet
energy associated with the southern stream come out of the Plains
and try to move toward the area. We see some weak short wave
activity actually pass through between 06 and 12z tonight. This will
have no moisture to work with at that point yet.

Then we see some degree of jet coupling take place and likely stay
just south of the forecast area on Tuesday as the southern branch
remains just far enough away. The various models continue to show
some light precipitation possible, some of which is some light
freezing rain. QPF amounts are all generally 0.01 inches or a trace,
with the highest amounts across the I-94 corridor.

Forecast soundings indicate that if any precipitation occurs, it
would likely be mainly some drizzle/freezing drizzle. That is
because there is quite a bit of dry air in the column above 925-850
mb. The trace amounts in the models look to be associated with the
arrival of relatively shallow low level moisture. The window for any
possible freezing precipitation is also quite small as sfc temps
rise above freezing by mid-morning.

This wave will move away from the area, and additional short wave
activity coming out of an upper low over the Rockies will try to
bring precipitation chances to Wednesday. Once again, the chances
are quite low as the southern jet axis keeps the best forcing with
the short waves just south of the area. We will end up under a nice
sfc ridge between the short wave activity to our south, and the
polar jet well north in Canada. This is likely to keep us dry on
Wednesday with temps remaining mild.

- Warm and wet Thursday through Saturday

The forecast for rain chances to increase on Thursday remains
consistent with previous forecast cycles. We will see the upper low
spinning over Northern California this morning gradually move over
the Plains, then lift ENE toward the area on Thursday. The
difference with this system is it buckles the upper jet enough that
the sfc reflection helps advect better warmth and moisture from the
Gulf up and over the area. This is shown in the PWAT progs as they
increase to over 1.00 inches on Thursday. The sfc low is expected to
pass over the forecast area, providing a direct hit for the rains.

The Thursday system should have exited the area by sunrise on
Friday, providing a relative dry period for 18-24 hours before the
next sfc low along the front lifts NE across the region. Even better
moisture will come up over the area Friday with PWATS increasing to
almost 1.5 inches. The warmer and wetter air will provide sufficient
instability to support a chance of thunderstorms later Friday into
early Saturday. This will also bring some of the warmest temps in
this pattern to the area Friday-Saturday.

The whole system will be swept out by later Saturday with a more
zonal upper air pattern redeveloping as the northern stream flattens
the upper flow a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

High pressure and a dry atmosphere will maintain VFR for Monday.
Light winds overnight/early morning will become from the
southeast 5 to 10 knots during the day.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CAS