318
FXUS63 KGRB 141800
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1200 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures through Saturday, with highs in the
  low 60s possible mainly in the Fox Valley Friday and Saturday
  afternoons.

- Minimal precipitation through early next week, with only light
  rain expected late tonight into Saturday, and again Monday into
  Tuesday.

- Worsening drought conditions will be possible due to the persistent
  dry pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Precip chances... Light rain is still on track to impact northeast
Wisconsin late tonight into Saturday as a strong yet moisture-
starved cold front treks southeast. Best chances for showers will
be over portions of north-central and far northeast Wisconsin,
where modest saturation occurs above 925 mb. This being said, QPF
is expected to be held down to a few hundredths of an inch or
less.

Long-range guidance continues to trend toward a drier forecast
early next week. Grand ensemble now shows more of a sheared out
wave that ejects from the west coast into the Ohio River Valley
late Monday, flattening out as it encounters Canadian high
pressure sliding into the upper Midwest. This leaves much of the
Great Lakes in no man`s land between the northern and southern
streams of a split flow regime, resulting in an unfavorable setup
for any measurable precip. Opted to keep the blended PoPs across
our southern counties, though have tamped down to slight chance.
Will continue to mention the potential for worsening drought
conditions within the next couple of weeks due to persistent dry
pattern.

Temperatures... Thermal ridge axis moves over Wisconsin this
evening, resulting in above average (though not record)
temperatures this afternoon, and again Saturday afternoon. Highs
will flirt with 60 degrees in the Fox Valley both days as 850 mb
temps max out near 16C, while reading in the mid to upper 50s
elsewhere. However, a steady stream of WAA preceding cold FROPA
will usher in a mid cloud deck beginning late this afternoon,
leading to less efficient surface heating and a slightly lower
temperature forecast on both days. Post-frontal temperatures then
fall back into near average territory on Sunday, ranging from the
mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs stabilize in this range for the
entirety of the next work week.

Winds... Winds ramp up and veer to northwesterly following cold
FROPA on Saturday, peaking during the afternoon as deeper mixing
occurs. 25 to 30 mph gusts will be possible on land during this
time. Given the influx of CAA within a tightening pressure
gradient, would not be surprised to see a gale or two in our
marine zones, especially up by Death`s Door.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A cold front will pass across Wisconsin Saturday morning, which
is the main weather focus over the next 24 hours.

Mostly clear skies this afternoon will be replaced by increasing
mid clouds ahead of the front starting this evening. LLWS will
also develop late this evening and last into early Saturday
morning. Then, NW surface winds increase on Saturday with gusts
of 15-25 kts. The moisture along the front is limited, but there
is a small chance of rain as the front comes through. Included
PROB30 groups in the TAFs to indicate the most likely time some
light rain is possible.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......KLJ