760
FXUS63 KGRB 060322
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1022 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Air Quality Advisory remains in effect for Brown, Calumet,
  Door, Kewaunee, Marinette and Oconto counties until noon Friday
  due to wildfire smoke.

- A few showers and thunderstorms could pop up Friday and
  Saturday, with a greater opportunity for widespread rain and
  thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Short Term...Tonight and Friday

High based fair weather cumulus developed across the area away
from Lake Michigan this afternoon. Temperatures warmed into the
70s, except in the 60s near Lake Michigan.

For tonight, an upper level disturbance will pass to the north of
the area. A few isolated showers are possible across the far north
(mainly Vilas County). Skies will be mostly cloudy across much of
the area. Areas of smoke will continue across eastern Wisconsin,
where a Air Quality Advisory is in effect until noon Friday
for Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Marinette and
Oconto counties. Some patchy fog is also possible across eastern
WI.

The chances of showers and a few storms return after midnight
tonight and on into Friday, with the highest chances of rain
across the north. Highs should range from the middle to upper 60s
north to the middle and upper 70s across central and northeast WI.

Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday

A couple ongoing showers or storms may linger into Friday evening
before dissipating after sunset. The next chance for showers and
storms arrives Saturday afternoon, as a shortwave passes to the
south of the forecast area. This will leave weaker mid-level
forcing over the forecast area, but models indicate some low-level
WAA will be present over western WI. That being said, precip
chances have decreased to 15-25% for portions of central and
north-central WI for Saturday afternoon.

Models are still on track with a cold front sweeping from west to
east across the forecast area on Sunday. This will provide an
opportunity (although brief) for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Despite some disagreement with the timing of the
frontal passage, the general consensus would indicate the front
moving over the area from the late morning through mid-afternoon,
lowering the potential for severe storms to occur. Will have a
better assessment of this as the finer details come into focus over
the next couple days, but cannot rule out a couple strong storms at
this time. Following the frontal passage, a closed low will dive
south and east over the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday night into
Monday, leaving additional chances for scattered showers and storms
over the forecast area through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Mid clouds thicken from the west into the early overnight hours.
Scattered showers that are currently over northern IA and southern
MN will push into central and north-central WI after 06z, now even
looking to reach the Fox Valley after 08z-09z. The showers will
overall become more widespread after 15z Friday. Greatest chances
for prevailing showers on Friday will be from central to north-
central WI (AUW/CWA/RHI). A few additional showers may make it to
the Fox Valley as well so will mention VCSH at times. An isolated
thunderstorm may occur across the area during the afternoon.
Shower chances slowly diminish early Friday evening.

Overall, despite the showers, VFR conditions will prevail. The
exceptions will be for some smoke/fog later tonight into Friday
morning (generally from 07z-13z) across eastern Wisconsin, and
then visibilities lowering to MVFR in the steadier showers over
the north (RHI) on Friday. Winds will be light through the TAF
period.

Fog with IFR or lower visibilities looks possible late Friday
night, early Saturday over north-central WI. Main impacts would
be north of a RHI to IMT line.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg/Kruk
AVIATION.......JLA