011
FXUS63 KGLD 311904
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
104 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend. Might see
  better chances for severe storms with increasing shear by
  Sunday, but still uncertainty on coverage due to weak
  forcing.

- Below normal temperatures through the end of the week, then a
  gradual warm up over the weekend.

- Hot and mainly dry for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Another cluster of storms will move out of Colorado tonight,
weakening as it does so. Best chances will be north of
Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27 through the evening hours,
then some slight chances after midnight for any lingering
activity. Main hazard will be wind gusts, potentially up to 60 mph
during the evening, diminishing late. Patchy fog may also
redevelop overnight and into Friday morning with little change
in the air mass and light winds. Lows will be in the 60s.

The pattern for Friday and Saturday remains the same. The upper
ridge will reorient itself to the Four Corners with shortwaves
coming over the top providing weak synoptic scale lift and a
moist low level upslope regime. Storms should develop during the
afternoon over the high terrain to the west and then move east
during the afternoon and evening hours. Timing for Friday looks
to be a bit earlier compared to today, with storms reaching far
northeast Colorado by 22-23z and northwest Kansas by 01-02z,
again with sporadic wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. A similar
round of storms can be expected Saturday afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the ridge will begin to amplify over the Rockies.
This will place the central plains under northwest flow. Some
drier air will move into western parts of the forecast area, but
the central and eastern areas remain moist and unstable. Storms
will develop in those areas during the afternoon and evening
hours, but exactly where is still a bit uncertain. Some models
show them initiating along the dry line as far west as the
Kansas/Colorado border, others keep them further east and out of
the area. Deep layer shear increases after 00z to around 40-50
kts, suggesting more of a severe threat should storms remain
discrete.

Temperatures will gradually warm back to near normal by the
weekend with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Upper ridge continues to amplify on Monday and reaches its
furthest north extent. It deamplifies Tuesday through Thursday
with more of a zonal flow across the central plains. Models are
generally dry and hot during this period. May see some isolated
storm chances return once the ridge deamplifies and weak
shortwaves come over the top, but models are not very
enthusiastic.

Temperatures will warm from near normal on Monday to above
normal Tuesday through Thursday, with highs back into the mid to
upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the rest
of the afternoon. Tonight, scattered thunderstorms in northeast
Colorado will begin to dissipate as they move into northwest
Kansas late this evening. There is a low probability that KGLD
will be impacted by brief gusty winds as this happens.
Overnight, low clouds and patchy fog will redevelop with a
period of at least IFR conditions likely at both terminals
through early Friday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024