747
FXUS63 KGLD 120506
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1106 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few hours of critical fire weather conditions possible in
  eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties this afternoon.

- Precipitation chances look to return late in the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Overview: Broad cyclonic flow aloft over the Central Plains
(today) will transition to a more unidirectional/westerly flow
pattern on Friday.

Today-Tonight: Strong NNW winds (30-40 mph G 45-55 mph) in the
wake of a cold frontal passage will peak late this morning and
steadily weaken through the remainder of the day, decreasing to
20-30 mph by 1-3p MDT and 15-20 mph by 6p MDT. Expect highs in
the mid 70`s to lower 80`s (~10F cooler than yesterday). Winds
will further weaken and become light/variable after sunset as
surface high pressure (located in the Nebraska Panhandle at 16Z)
progresses SSE over the Central Plains. Winds will remain light
overnight and gradually shift to the SE or S by sunrise (~12Z)
Fri. Expect lows ranging from the upper 40`s (eastern CO) to
lower 50`s (elsewhere).

Fri-Fri night: A moist southerly return flow regime will
follow, on Friday, as surface high pressure shifts eastward from
the Central Plains to the Central MS River Valley, a baggy lee
cyclone redevelops in the lee of the central Rockies and a low-
level (surface to 850 mb) ridge over the Deep South directs Gulf
moisture poleward into the Southern and Central Plains.
Guidance continues to indicate that the northern extent of rich
low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60`s, 850 mb
dewpoints >14C) will be in southwest KS, and that a relatively
drier low-level airmass and a more pronounced elevated mixed
layer with northern extent from Hwy 50 (north of a line from
Lamar to Garden City) will maintain a fair amount of convective
inhibition (a cap) over northwest KS and southwest NE. Simulated
reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR
suggest that convection will be confined entirely south of the
Goodland CWA, where low-level convergence on the eastern
periphery of the baggy lee cyclone in far southeast CO/southwest
KS will serve as a focus for development. The NAM NEST suggests
that isolated convection may develop on the Palmer Divide,
where guidance indicates that marginal high-based instability
and little or no convective inhibition will be present at peak
heating, though.. updrafts in this area would have to contend
with dry air entrainment. Aside from a small chance for a storm
in western Cheyenne County, CO and far southern Greeley/Wichita
counties in KS.. dry conditions are likely over most, if not
all, of the Goodland CWA. -If- deep convection were to develop
in the Goodland CWA, a severe storm would be possible. Expect
highs in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s. No appreciable fire
weather concerns, as the driest conditions (RH`s below 20%)
will be confined to Yuma County CO, where winds will be
weakest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Sat-Sun: Unidirectional/westerly flow aloft will persist over
the the weekend. Guidance suggests that a relatively
cooler/drier airmass will advect southward into the Tri-State
Area in the wake of a modest cold frontal passage Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night will help confine
precip/convection south and east of the Goodland CWA. Expect dry
conditions with highs ~80-90F on Sat and much cooler temps
~70-75F on Sun.

Mon-Tue: Long range guidance indicates a transition to NNW to
NW flow aloft early next week.. on the eastern periphery of an
amplifying upper level ridge along the Pacific Coast.
Precip/convection is possible, depending on the timing/track of
shortwave energy in NNW to NW flow aloft. Temperatures and wind
speed/direction will also highly depend upon the timing/track of
shortwave energy and associated clipper lows.

Wed-Thu: Long range guidance indicates that the aforementioned
ridge will shift eastward across the 4-Corners, central-southern
Rockies and Central/Southern Plains around mid-week, suggesting
a warming trend and below average precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for
KGLD and KMCK. KMCK overnight may see some patches of smoke from
fires in western Nebraska, but impacts to flight categories are
not expected. Winds from the south will be picking up just
after sunrise and will slightly favor a southwesterly flow, but
will be right around the 180-190 degree mark. Between 0-5Z, KGLD
may see some showers and storms to the south of the airport.
Winds at both sites will be weakening around this time, too.

Around and beyond 6Z Saturday morning, stratus may move into
the region, leading to degraded ceilings, as well as LLWS.
However, confidence is not overly high in these things
occurring.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA