599
FXUS63 KGLD 210004
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 PM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible in
  northern portions of the area this afternoon, mainly in
  northeast CO and nearby KS/NE border counties.

- A pattern shift toward the end of the week will bring the
  potential for much colder temperatures as arctic air pushes
  south into the High Plains and Midwest. Wind chills around 15
  below zero are possible Friday through Sunday morning.

- A system may bring accumulating snow to parts of the Central
  High Plains including the Tri-State region Friday night
  through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 PM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

Main story will be frigid temperatures arriving Thursday night
and continuing through Friday (and into the long term period).
Light snow will also develop going through Friday with best
chances Friday night into Saturday.

Ahead of the primary Arctic front on Thursday, there will be
two other fronts moving through the area, both relatively weak
in terms of temperature impacts, but will result in occasional
breezy north winds. The first front moves through this evening
with north winds gusting up to 30-40 mph for a few hours behind
frontal passage. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler on
Wednesday with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A second
front moves through Wednesday afternoon, entering southwest
Nebraska around 21z and clearing the southern forecast area
around 03z. Associated increase in wind speeds appears to be
confined mainly to southwest Nebraska where they may gust over
30 mph at times, but the remainder of the area will only see a
wind shift to the northeast and not much in the way of wind with
this front. Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler with highs
in the mid to upper 30s.

The main Arctic front will arrive late Thursday afternoon or
early Thursday evening. May see a modest increase in wind behind
it with gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures will bottom out in the
single digits by Friday morning which combined with the wind
will result in wind chills in the 10 to 15 below range.
Temperatures moderate little through the day Friday with cloudy
skies, easterly winds and light snow developing in the
afternoon. High temperatures will be in the single digits and
teens and wind chills likely staying below zero. Best chance for
snow will be Friday night with a shortwave trough digging along
the Front Range/central High Plains. Still some model
differences in snow amounts. In particular, the 12z ECMWF has
more snow over a larger part of the area compared to the GFS
which keeps the snow mostly south of Interstate 70. The ECMWF
has stronger winds aloft and places the area in a favorable
right entrance region of a jet max, a feature not shown in the
GFS. The cold temperatures will also help with accumulations
with snow ratios around 20:1. Wind does not appear to be a
factor with generally light winds from the southeast. Total snow
accumulation by 12z Saturday falls in the 1 to 4 inch range at
this time. Lows Friday night continue to fall with this model
run with single digits below zero currently forecast and wind
chills around 15 below. Would not be surprised to see a few more
degrees shaved off those temperatures in future model runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

Saturday we continue to feel the effects of the Arctic air mass
dipping down into our region. Wind chills will be the main concern
Saturday morning. The entire region is forecast to have wind chills
in the negative teens. Winds will be overall mild and variable, but
gusts from 20-25 mph and temperatures close to zero will put us at
or near Wind Chill Advisory levels. Temperatures remain in the
single digits until early afternoon. Highs will be in the teens for
most of the county warning area (CWA). Probabilities that our CWA
will see temperatures below 5 degrees Saturday morning are between
60-80% with the eastern portion of the CWA being on the higher end.

We may see snow Saturday morning and throughout the day as a weak
trough sweeps through our region. Probability of Precipitation
(PoPs) range from 20-60% for the area with PoPs increasing as you go
south across the area. Greeley and Wichita counties have the highest
PoPs early Saturday morning at 60%. PoPs decrease throughout the day
Saturday and are less than 10% overnight Saturday into Sunday. Wind
chills overnight should fall below zero again.

Temperatures overall warm Sunday, but are still a concern with lows
in the single digits and wind chill values around zero. High
temperatures are forecast in the 30s. The warming trend continues
Monday and Tuesday as we enter a weak ridge pattern. High
temperatures will be in the upper 40s with some areas seeing 50s on
Tuesday. Lows will be in the high teens. Winds are forecast to be
mild and variable with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 437 PM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. A cold front will be passing through the
area over the next few hours, with northerly winds behind the
front forecast to gust around 20-25 kts. KMCK has a 10% chance
of snow around 3-6Z and a 2% chance of LIFR ceilings in the same
time. Otherwise, it`s not too bad of a period to fly.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...Vincent