308
FXUS63 KGLD 260608
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1208 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible anywhere in the Tri-State Area
  Sunday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail,
  damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. Northwest
  Kansas is most at-risk for significant severe weather.
  Considerable uncertainty persists with regard to thunderstorm
  location and coverage during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Broad southwesterly flow continues across the Central Plains
ahead of an upper low currently over southern Nevada. An
embedded shortwave ahead of the main trough will move out of the
southern Rockies and across the forecast area this morning.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop generally
north of Interstate 70 by early this morning and move northeast
and out of the area by 18-19z. The main trough axis will follow
later this afternoon as it lifts out of the southern Rockies and
across the area as an open wave. It will trigger scattered
thunderstorms after 21z in areas that manage to see some
clearing after the morning precipitation. There is a high degree
of uncertainty when and where that clearing will occur, but
models generally show that by 21z areas west of a Wray,
Colorado, to Scott City, Kansas, line will be free of low clouds
with weak instability developing (500-1000 j/kg). As the low
clouds continue to retreat eastward, instability will increase
across western and southern areas, especially south of
Interstate 70, by 00-03z. Peak instability occurs during that
time range at 1000-1500 j/kg. Deep layer shear also gradually
increases through the afternoon with the approach of the upper
trough axis and associated speed max, from 40-50 kts at 21z to
50-60 kts after 00z. While the instability is not particularly
impressive, the magnitude to the deep layer shear should more
than compensate, and would expect to see a few supercells in
this environment. Models show discrete cells and updraft
helicity maxima primarily confined to areas south of Interstate
70 in northwest Kansas, although there is an additional area in
Yuma County where convergence near a developing surface low may
also play a role. Large hail, damaging winds (and perhaps
blowing dust in areas that do not receive morning precipitation),
and a brief tornado may accompany any supercell, though the STP
(Significant Tornado Parameter) is less than 1, suggesting
relatively weak tornadoes. The caveat to all of this will be the
low clouds. If they persist longer or further west, instability
and severe potential will be limited mainly to Colorado and
areas further south in Kansas where clearing seems more certain.
Storms are forecast to be east and out of the area by 06z.
Patchy fog may develop in the wake of the storms overnight, but
a cold will shift winds to the northwest by 12z which is not a
favorable direction for fog.

Monday the area will be post frontal with northwest winds,
temperatures in the 60s and dew points in the 30s. The deep
moisture will be swept well east of the area so no severe storms
are expected. However, as another trough digs into the southwest
CONUS southwest flow will be reestablished over the plains.
Another embedded weak shortwave will bring precipitation chances
mainly to Colorado by the afternoon, with those chances trying
to spread eastward into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska
Monday night. Precipitation amounts are not impressive, with NBM
and REFS means showing less than a tenth of an inch, highest
amounts in Colorado.

Temperature trends for the period will see highs today below
normal in the east (60s) but near or slightly below normal in
the west (70s) depending on where the clouds can clear, then
slightly below normal on Monday (60s). Low temperatures will be
in the 30s and 40s tonight/Monday morning, then low 30s Monday
night/Tuesday morning, when a frost or freeze will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Broad upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Central
United States Tuesday morning, with embedded shortwave systems in
this flow. This pattern is favored to last through Wednesday, with
meandering temperatures and potentially some precipitation. Cooler
conditions are possible Tuesday as a shortwave trough traverses the
forecast region, with highs forecast in the upper-50s to lower-70s.
Additionally, NBM guidance favors rain across much of the forecast
region Tuesday, and suggests up to a 65% chance for over 0.1 inches
of rain across portions of Southwest Nebraska and Eastern Colorado.
Similar conditions may be experienced on Wednesday ahead of another
shortwave trough, with high temperatures forecast in the mid-60s to
lower-70s, and up to a 55% chance for over 0.1 inches of rain in
Northeastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska. LREF guidance suggests
that all areas in the forecast region Tuesday and Wednesday have
less than a 10% chance of CAPE greater than 500 J/kg, but at least a
1 in 3 chance that CAPE will be present. As such, showers, and
possibly a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out either day.

Going into Thursday, the broader upper-level trough looks to be
moved off into the Eastern United States, with Wednesday`s shortwave
system still extending into the Central United States. At the same
time, a split flow looks to be established over the Western United
States, producing another shortwave trough across the southwest.
These two shortwave systems may slightly merge together, allowing
troughing to remain overhead Thursday and Friday. Cool, wet
conditions look to continue with this pattern, with highs in the
upper-50s to lower-60s Thursday and Friday, and a 50% chance or
greater of rainfall over 0.1 inches across most of the forecast
area according to NBM guidance. Once again, LREF guidance does
suggest CAPE will be present both days, but likely less than
about 300 J/kg. Showers and possibly weak thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out.

A surface low pressure traversing Southern Canada Saturday may allow
conditions to warm up a little bit during the afternoon. High
temperatures are currently forecast in the upper-60s to lower-70s.
Precipitation may still linger in the forecast area during this
time, though chances currently appear lower at less than 20%.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Low ceilings will impact both KGLD and KMCK for the remainder of
the overnight and through much of the day Sunday. At KMCK,
morning showers and perhaps and isolated thunderstorm will
result in occasional visibility restrictions, ending by around
17z. At KGLD, mid afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will
be possible, with about a 30% chance of directly impacting the
terminal with reductions in visibility and ceilings. A severe
storm cannot be ruled out at KGLD, which would additionally
bring a threat of hail and gusty winds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024