640
FXUS63 KGLD 310634
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1234 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Severe weather threat continues with afternoon and evening
  storms today and Monday. 50-70 MPH winds are the main hazards,
  but 1-2 inch hail is also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Convection early this morning is being driven by a trough extending
from a low over southern Canada. This looks to keep convection
persistent until around sunrise when it finally exists to the east.
We could see some strong to low-end severe storms be embedded in the
larger complex tonight, too. Most likely hazards will be 50-65 MPH
winds and 0.5-1 inch hail. There remains a small chance of flash
flooding is stronger storms train over the same location.

A high over Tennessee will work to keep us under southwesterly flow
for the next couple of days, but still expands its influence through
most of Kansas. This will allow us to have some troughs cross over
the Rockies, spur some potentially severe convection, and then fall
apart as they hit the high. These features will also keep the low
level flow fairly chaotic, preventing any strong, persistent surface
level winds for most of the CWA.

The weaker flow will allow the sun to efficiently warm the surface,
as long as it`s unimpeded. However, we are expecting some mid and
upper level clouds to ride along the edge of the 500 mb high, likely
covering the northwestern half of the CWA both today and tomorrow.
Today`s highs look to warm into to around 90 where there are
persistent clouds. Where the clouds are thin or non-existent,
temperatures will likely warm into mid to potentially upper 90s.

Today`s convection may begin to move into the southwestern CWA
around as early as 21-23Z after firing off in eastern Colorado,
similar to Sunday`s. There may be two waves of convection to worry
about. The first looks to be a broken line of supercells or a fairly
large cluster forms in eastern Colorado and move to the northeast.
All hazards could be possible with this, but winds up around 50-70
MPH and hail around 1-2 inches would be most likely. A single cell
that really is able to take off has the potential of producing a
tornado and hail up around 2.5 inches, but there`s less than a 5%
chance of this occurring. Conversely, if the cluster produces a
strong, organized outflow, winds closer to 80 MPH would be possible,
but there is a similar chance of this occurring. This wave would
likely yield around 6Z, as the second wave forms.

The second wave has a lower chance of developing and looks to have
smaller hazards than the first wave. The second wave would likely
form off of an approaching cold front and also move to the northeast
as a broken line. Main hazards with the second wave would be 50-60
MPH winds and 0.5-1 inch hail. Depending on where the front if these
storms decide to fire, the severe threat would be over not later
than 9Z, but some lingering showers and storms are possible.
Overnight lows look to cool into the 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday looks to have a larger spread of high temperatures across
the CWA as highs in the eastern CWA may warm closer to 100 degrees.
The main difference is we get some more organized southwesterly flow
over the southeastern CWA, promoting WAA and down-slope warming.

Convection Tuesday is currently low confidence that storms will even
form. If convection does occur, is may just be an isolated cell or
two forming in eastern Colorado and moving to the east. Inverted-V
soundings look likely with moderate to weak instability. This leads
to wind being the main threat, but also a chance of hail. Severe
potential is currently less than 10% for the entire CWA, and only
about 40% for any convection at all. The best window for convection
will be between 21-6Z. Overnight lows look to mimic Monday night`s
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Tuesday through Thursday, not much change in the upper pattern is
forecast with the upper ridge over the Southeastern United States
with an upper trough over the Northwest United States. This is
forecast to keep the air mass roughly the same each day and allow
for highs in the 90s and low 100s. The warmer temperatures favor
areas that are closer to Central Kansas. Winds should remain around
5-15 mph and vary in direction each day as broad low pressure is
expected to linger over much of the Plains. With the upper level
southwest flow and upstream trough, mid to high level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming into the area and bring in high level
cloud cover. A few shortwaves should also move through and help
spark storm development west of the area. With the low levels
forecast to be a bit on the dry side, storms will likely struggle to
make it to the area in the absence of outflows or a low level jet.
Still, each day will give the area a chance for storms and maybe
even some severe weather.

Going into the weekend, confidence has increased a bit more on the
ridge amplifying over the Plains. This is keeping the pattern
roughly the same and conditions somewhat similar. Temperatures may
be able to warm into the 100s for most of the area if the ridge axis
shifts over the area. Otherwise, we should keep the light winds and
daily chances for storms.

There is still a 25% though that the upper trough pushes east over
the weekend instead. In this case, Friday/Saturday would be hot and
have better chances for storms as the trough pushes a more pronounce
system through the area. The rest of the weekend would then probably
be cooler with highs maybe in the 80s. Storm chances would also
probably be a bit lower on Sunday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Showers and weak storms will persist through the region,
impacting KGLD and potentially impacting KMCK. VFR conditions
look to prevail, but some MVFR visibilities from some heavier
rain is possible. Winds will largely remain under 15 kts for the
period, but will be somewhat variable. As typical, expect
stronger gusts from thunderstorms. This precipitation should
clear the area by 11Z, but another round is expected for Monday
evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA