633
FXUS63 KGLD 052157
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
357 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are forecast for today with hail up to
  two inches, damaging winds around 65 mph and perhaps a brief
  tornado. The favored area is mainly along and west of Highway
  25; with the best chances across eastern Colorado.

- Another round of strong to severe storms is forecast Friday
  mainly along and south of a Yuma to Gove line. Damaging winds
  and large hail are the main threats. Isolated instances of
  county road flooding may be possible especially for areas
  that see repeated rounds of storms.

- Below normal temperatures through the end of the week, but
  warming back up to normal and above normal by the weekend and
  into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The main focus for the short term period will be for strong to
severe storms this afternoon and evening and again Friday. Starting
with today. Shortwaves are forecast to move off of the Rockies and
onto the Plains this afternoon. Clearing is already ongoing across
the Colorado Plains and should continue to move towards the state
line through the afternoon. The main question for the day will be
how far east will the clearing make it as thick stratus and rain
showers are forecast to be ongoing across portions of NW Kansas and
SW Nebraska. The further east clouds can erode then that is how far
east the severe threat can expand.

There are two areas of storm development and potentially a third: 1)
Storms should develop across northern Colorado and move to the
southeast with the right mover motion towards Yuma and Kit Carson
county moving in around 5-6pm MT. Supercell structures should be the
dominant mode initially but with straight line hodographs in
place do think some splitting of cells where a cluster may end
up developing. Hazards with this look to be hail to golf balls,
damaging winds to 65 mph and perhaps some landspout potential
early on and some secondary threat as storm interactions begin
occurring as splitting occurs. Cloud cover will dictate how far
east the severe threat goes with this cluster. Confidence is
fairly high in this scenario as a consistent signal has been
seen for the past 24-36 hours.

2)Another shortwave moving across the southern Rockies in southern
Colorado is forecast to yield some development mainly south of
Highway 40 but the greater coverage should remain south of the area.
There is however some potential for storm development across
Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wichita counties as some clearing is seen
moving in from SE Colorado; so if storms form then hail around 2
inches in diameter, damaging winds and a tornado as some better
curvature in the low levels is seen. Low to medium confidence in
this area for severe as it will be dependent on the shortwave
ejection location but would potentially have the higher impacts;
timing would be around 3p-11pm MT for this area.

3) The third area is for sure the more conditional threat. A surface
convergence boundary/differential heating boundary  may end up
setting up roughly along Highway 27 south of Interstate 70 which
would be the focus for an earlier start time around 1-2pm MT with
all hazards on the table as they move east and become more surface
based. This is for sure the least likely scenario for today as most
guidance other than the RRFS has backed off of it from what was seen
yesterday afternoon. I am however noticing a very subtle spin in in
the clouds just west of Morgan county Colorado as of 10am MT so will
be interesting to see if this yields this scenario or not.

No matter which scenario pans out moderate to occasionally
heavy rain is forecast to follow the storms which may lead to
some localized flooding potential especially for locales that
see storms as PWATS are forecast to be ranging from 1-1.3
inches; however storm motions should be fast enough that
flooding shouldn`t be a major impact. Some fog may develop
overnight into early Friday morning due to a freshly saturated
boundary layer and would become more likely if rain were to move
out quicker.

Friday, another shortwave is forecast to move off of the Front Range
during the afternoon hours as an MCS looks to form with damaging
winds the main hazard and potentially some hail with any stronger
updrafts within the MCS; guidance then suggests another disturbance
as well during the evening hours with severe again possible. At this
time the favored area for severe weather looks to be confined to
areas along and south of a Yuma county to Gove county line. Flooding
may be more possible Friday with two rounds of potentially heavy
rainfall and with the round this evening as well. However if
discrete cells can maintain themselves then the hail threat would
increase as well. High temperatures for Friday are currently
forecast to be a little warmer than today in the mid 60s to low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Saturday, ridging  begins to develop across the western CONUS
which will be the start of a warming trend for the area as high
temperatures are currently forecast to rebound in to the mid 80s
across the area. The forecast for the most part is dry for
Saturday but there is a 10-20% chance Norton and Graham county
may get skirted with a passing shower as a weak disturbance
moves across north central Kansas.

Sunday at this time appears to be a bit more active as a low
pressure system develops across the northern Plains which moves a
cold front back through the area. Showers and storms are currently
forecast to develop along the front with severe weather possible
during the afternoon and evening hours. There does remain some
discrepancies with the overall placement of the low and timing
of the front. A slower cold frontal passage would support an
increased severe weather potential for the area.

Into the start of the next week, we remain in the NW flow
pattern but not seeing any indications at this time of any
disturbances in the flow so the forecast will remain dry for
now. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the upper 70s
to low 80s across much of the area. Troughing then does look to
return towards the middle portion of the week with the potential
for our active pattern to continue with severe weather chances
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions are forecast to continue for each
terminals although a very brief period of VFR for KGLD ahead of
storms. Will maintain the PROB30 for KGLD this still appears to
be the most likely for thunderstorms to impact the terminal. Low
stratus is again forecast to develop tonight along with some fog
potential; there is potential for dense fog especially if
rainfall moves out quicker. This potential at this time looks to
favor KGLD. IFR conditions are forecast to continue through mid
morning before MVFR conditions return. Showers and storms are
then forecast to move back in towards the end of the period or
just slightly after. Due to uncertainties with exact time will
leave out of the TAF for now.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg