773
FXUS65 KGJT 060614
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1214 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Convection will continue overnight across central portions of
  the area with light to moderate rain and isolated
  thunderstorms.

- More showers and storms are expected Friday favoring the
  northern half of the CWA as a upper level trough and surface
  cold front move through. Heavy rain, hail, and lightning will,
  once again, be the main concern.

- Drier and warmer conditions return by the weekend into early
  next week with afternoon storms favoring the high terrain and
  more of a gusty wind threat than wetting rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Convection is somewhat weaker than we`ve seen over the last few
days but despite that, plenty of lightning, hail, and some
heavy rainers can be found across the CWA this afternoon. Little
has changed with regards to the ample moisture, peak heating,
and instability to allow this convection to fire. Both the HRRR
and NAMNEST show this convection continuing through 6PM this
evening with coverage decreasing after that. Not all convection
will end but by midnight, should only have to worry about a few
showers, maybe a brief rumble of thunder.

Tomorrow, more convection is expected as an upper level trough
and associated surface cold front move through. CAMs have been
highlighting convection firing around noon, if not a bit before,
as the disturbance approaches from the northwest. An active
afternoon is expected with some heavy rainers, hail, and plenty
of lightning being the main concern once again. Do anticipate
the showers and storms being stronger than those seen today
thanks to the front being a stronger trigger. This convection
should be along the I-70 corridor around 6PM before moving
southward and by midnight, models are showing just about all
precip being over.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

This weekend we break out of our wet, troughy weather pattern
as a ridge builds in over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge
gradually moves inland this weekend before taking up residence
over the Intermountain West early next week. Weekend
temperatures become more seasonable as a result before warming
to 5-10 degrees above normal next week. A couple of weak low
pressure centers hanging out off the California coast will keep
a steady stream of moisture in place for the foreseeable future.
PWATs will generally remain about 150% of normal through early
next week. This is a big drop from the 200-250% we`ve had in
place this week, but high enough to spawn afternoon convection
over the higher terrain each afternoon despite the lack of
synoptic forcing with high pressure overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

An area of light to moderate rain showers will continue to
progress across central portions of the area with MVFR
conditions at times through about 12Z. This includes KGJT, KRIL,
KEGE and KASE. After a brief break in shower activity, showers
and thunderstorms will redevelop ahead of an approaching cold
front after 16Z across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado,
spreading southeast through the remaining northern and central
portions of the area with best potential for rain and
thunderstorms between 20Z and 02Z. This will affect most TAF
sites with exception of the far southern sites near the New
Mexico border, including KDRO. Highest confidence in prevailing
showers/storms or VCTS at KHDN, KASE, KEGE and KRIL in closer
proximity to the front and better forcing. Kept PROB30 for the
remaining areas where potential exists but timing is a bit more
uncertain. Moderate to heavy rain, lightning, small hail and
gusty winds all possible with storms with MVFR/IFR and ILS
conditions with storms. Showers look to come to an end for the
most part after 03Z with skies clearing from the northwest as
drier air moves in this evening into the overnight.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT