816
FXUS65 KGJT 312130
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
330 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will form along the high terrain
  tomorrow afternoon with an increasing potential for gusty
  outflow winds up to 45 mph.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in place for NE Utah and NW Colorado
  as critical fire weather conditions remain in place this evening.

- Smoke and haze from regional wildfires will remain visible
  through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Small perturbations in the upper-level flow proved enough to
produce showers and isolated storms early this morning, and we
may see the same continue tonight as we remain in an subtly
unsettled weather pattern. This is a lower-confidence part of
the forecast, but there`s enough of a signal in the CAMs to
include a slight chance of showers overnight, especially south
of I-70.

The upper-level pattern becomes more zonal tomorrow helping
usher in a drier airmass currently situated over California and
Nevada. The coverage of afternoon convection will decrease as a
result with most showers and storms developing over the higher
terrain. As the drier air works in, the potential for gusty
thunderstorm outflow winds increases.

Additionally, as westerly winds kick in tonight, a higher
concentration of wildfire smoke from large, active fires in
central Utah and northern Arizona will move into eastern Utah
and western Colorado. The concentration of near-surface smoke
could be quite noticeable tomorrow morning, but will improve
with afternoon mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Lingering moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the high terrain on Saturday. However,
virga is possible with much of the precipitation as
southwesterly flow continues to bring dry air. After Saturday
PoPs will drop to near zero across the region as dry air remains
in place through midweek. The ECMWF Ens is suggesting drier
conditions than the GFS Ens, but both keep PWAT anomalies below
normal until around Tuesday evening. Monday looks to be the
driest day of the long term, with PWAT anomalies dropping down
to 25-50% of normal across the CWA. The dry conditions will
contribute to a series of days with critical fire weather
conditions, although coverage varies each day. Critical fire
weather conditions will be more widespread on Monday and Tuesday
as synoptically driven afternoon wind gusts exceed thresholds.
Mixing with a jet streak overhead and an increasing pressure
gradient brings these stronger winds. High temperatures look to
be up to 10 degrees above normal through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
today across most western Colorado terminals. The most likely
locations to see rain this afternoon are KASE, KTEX, KDRO, and
KGUC. Erratic winds of 35-40 kts may accompany these storms.
Strong sustained winds may also occur throughout the afternoon
and overnight at KGJT, KHDN, and KCNY. Regardless, VFR
conditions are likely to prevail and cigs are likely to remain
above ILS breakpoints for the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect this afternoon for
northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado as hot, dry, windy
conditions develop this afternoon. Strong upper level winds will
mix down as single digit relative humidities move in this
afternoon. Wetting rains will also persist on terrain near the
Continental Divide as we see another afternoon of thunderstorms
and showers. Gusty outflows and small hail could pose hazards
to fire crews working on area wildfires. Winds appear to ebb and
flow in the coming days along with persistent low relative
humidity. This is likely to keep some critical fire weather in
the picture through the weekend and beyond. Wetting rains will
be increasingly less likely by Sunday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-
     490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT