497
FXUS63 KGID 311943
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
243 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers persist this afternoon. Weakening thunderstorms
  approach from the west late tonight and linger into Friday
  morning. Most locations will stay dry.

- Low t-storm chances (20-30%) return to the entire area Friday
  night, and become likely (50-70%) Saturday night into Sunday.
  Some of these could be strong to severe.

- Warm and drier for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

With weak flow aloft, some sprinkles/light rain showers continue
to drift southwestward across southern parts of the area. These
should fade with sunset. Within the next few hours, convection
is expected to blossom over CO/WY, which will eventually
approach the local area late tonight (most likely after 2am).
There is enough instability/shear ahead of these storms for
them to persist into our forecast area, but the environment gets
less and less favorable the further east that they travel. As
such, the primary area of concern is far western portions of the
area (as indicated by HRRR/RRFS), and severe weather is
unlikely.

As we head into Friday morning, a few showers and thunderstorms
may persist (indicated by 18Z HRRR), especially over northern
portions of the area ahead of a weak shortwave. Once gain,
lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures on the "cooler"
side (mid 70s to low 80s). Friday night, we will be watching for
one or more clusters of storms to move in from the
west/northwest late overnight. Intensity/coverage looks better
than tonight, but there are still plenty of question marks and
thunderstorms are far from guaranteed.

The cycle repeats for Saturday night into Sunday, although
increasing instability will lead to a higher severe potential.
Not a "major" severe threat by any means, but probably the best
opportunity for severe weather over this 7-day period.

Sunday`s forecast is less certain, and will be highly dependent
on convective details from the preceding night(s). Temperatures
again may get stuck in the 70s to low 80s due to lingering
cloud cover, and will be looking for redeveloping thunderstorms
on remnant outflow boundaries from Saturday night.

A warming trend then takes hold for the following workweek.
Ridging aloft will allow the 90s to creep back into the area.
Global ensembles do still indicate some rain/t-storm chances,
but overall the trend will be drier.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Cloud cover will continue to scatter out through this afternoon,
although MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to return late tonight
into Friday morning. Lower (IFR) ceilings are currently more
favored at EAR than at GRI.

Winds remain out of the east today and turn more southeasterly
on Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels