432
FXUS63 KGID 310615
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
115 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms possible through sunrise across southeastern
  portions of the area.

- Highs this week in the upper 80s to upper 90s, warmest across southern
  portions of the area.

- Scattered thunderstorms move into northwestern portions of the area
  during the late evening-overnight hours. A few of these
  storms could be strong-marginally severe.

- Off and on thunderstorm chances continue mainly during the
  late evening-overnight hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A cluster of scattered thunderstorms is currently located across
northwestern Kansas. This cluster of storms will remain capable of
producing 40-60mph wind gusts over the next couple of hours, but the
cluster of storms is expected to gradually weaken over time as
storms move east across the area. Areas most favored to see this
rain will be along and southeast of the Tri-Cities. Rain exits
eastern portions of the area shortly after sunrise, setting up for
another hot day across the area. Highs today climb into the upper
80s (northwest) to upper 90s (southeast). Heat index values will
peak around 100 degrees for areas along and southeast of a Hebron-
Osborne line.

Similar to previous days, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
move out of eastern CO/western KS, reaching western portions of the
area during the late evening-overnight hours. CAPE and shear are
sufficient for a few of these storms to be strong-marginally severe.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts around
60mph and hail to the size of quarters. Areas most favored to see
storms tonight will be along and northwest of the Tri-Cities.

Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is expected throughout the
school week. This results in a near copy-paste of today/tonights
forecast each day. Highs will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s, with
scattered thunderstorms possible during the late evening-overnight
hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Partly cloudy skies and above normal temperatures were observed
across the local area this afternoon. Once again, convection is
expected to initiate across the Rockies and move into the high
plains by evening, bringing another (20-30%) chance for
nocturnal convection across parts of the local area. While not
everyone will see precipitation overnight, most of the CAMS are
indicating this high plains convection will reach the local
area late this evening, weakening as it crosses the region.
Given the elevated instability, a few strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will again be possible, especially across
areas mainly west of Highway 183, with 50 to 60 mph wind gusts
being the main concern.

Taking a look at the broader weather pattern, high pressure
across the southern plains will transition into the Ohio River
valley to start next week, resulting in a southwesterly flow
pattern aloft continuing through much of next week. This
pattern will bring daily weak disturbances crossing the local
area during the evening/nighttime hours, originating across the
Rockies and tracking eastward each evening. While high pressure
will not be directly over the area, heights aloft will remain
elevated and afternoon temperatures are expected to remain
several degrees (3-8 degrees) above normal through the work
week.

Late in the period, both the GFS/EC indicate the upper level
ridge will rebuild westward across the central Plains and
amplify next weekend as an area of low pressure meanders across
the Pacific Northwest and a tropical disturbance tracks north
across the eastern Pacific. This should diminish storm chances
next weekend while allowing temperatures to increase further
above climatology...with no significant relief (temperature
wise) foreseen over at least the next 10 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few scattered storms may pass in and out of the KEAR/KGRI
vicinity tonight between mainly 8z and 12z. Though the potential
is not completely zero for a stronger storm or two to develop,
the overall coverage of these storms should remain fairly
minimal. Wind directions will be expected to become
northwesterly following the passage of such storms. Winds will
not be expected to peak more than 10-15kts for the night or day.
Ceilings with these storms are not likely to drop into MVFR
categories (20-30% chance), especially not for longer than 30
minutes to an hour. Broken to overcast skies will break apart or
move out of the area by the afternoon with yet another deck of
mid-level stratus expected to move in overnight Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Stump